iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 26/09/2026

"I didn't say that, it was my AI Agent, Lil'hommie."

A screen grab from a Key and Peele sketch called "Lil Hommie" featuring the puppet of the same name.

Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 25/09/2026

Not necessarily what I signed up to @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com 's substack expecting, but I know many will find her curating the top OnlyFans to be a valuable service.

Substack Notification:
YOUNG VULGARIAN AT 3: THE BEST OF

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 23/09/2026

Oh no, President Pezeshkian has made the fatal error of letting Z-Rabbit go second!

B-Rabbit and Lotto face off in a rap battle in the movie 8-Mile.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 23/09/2026

Yes. substack.com/home/post/p-...

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 22/09/2026

Now to take a big sip of water and look at what's in the middle of the UN flag...

The flag of the united nations. There's a globe right in the middle.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 10/09/2026

I posted this six months ago and apparently the answer was, "so fucking many".

Post from me, quote tweeting FinTwitter.

Quoted tweet reads:
Iranian explosive-laden boats hit two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, initial investigation from Iraqi security officials shows.

My post reads:
I'm not a commodities guy but I don't know how many more events like this markets will be willing to overlook because Trump occasionally shouts, "nearly done!" at a reportmer from his golf cart.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 09/09/2026

I did laugh out loud at this journey though.

Three posts from The West Meadow.

First one asks the bot if it's getting into trouble.

Second one three hours later just reads "Oof"

Third reads "Well my bot went and did bad things fuck"

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 09/09/2026

Not sure why this is a debate after I've already offered the only authoritative test:

Two old posts from Dmitry Grozoubinski:

There is, but it only has one variable and it's how often you call your mother.

(Not enough, heaven forbid you pause your very busy life to reach out to the woman who spent 9 months carrying you not that one should complain but you know the back still sometimes hurts and it would be so nice to check in once and a while I don't want to be a bother but I'll just sit by the ph...)

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 06/09/2026

I asked Astra what it thought the prompt I'd need to use to generate that second image would be and it's er, not good for those looking for optimism about Trump's mental state:

Create a vertical, epic science-fiction propaganda poster with a dark Warhammer 40,000 aesthetic, photorealistic faces and highly detailed cinematic digital painting.

Donald Trump stands full-length in the exact centre, viewed from a low angle, wearing a black suit, white shirt, red tie and a long black overcoat billowing to the left. His expression is stern, his chin raised, his gaze directed upward. He stands on a large gold presidential eagle seal embedded in wet, reflective black pavement.

Behind him stand two enormous, symmetrical armoured combat robots, towering several times his height. Their bulky black armour is battle-worn, with gold stars, American flag shoulder markings, large golden winged eagle chest emblems and glowing red eyes. Their design resembles massive gothic Space Marine dreadnoughts.

Smaller heavily armoured robotic walkers advance in formation on both sides of Trump, firing bright red laser beams. Four shadowy men in dark business suits appear in the smoky middle distance, two on each side. The dome of the US Capitol is faintly visible behind Trump.

A gigantic cracked moon dominates the upper centre of the composition, surrounded by swirling storm clouds, lightning and cold blue-white light. Mist, smoke and rain fill the scene. Deep blacks, steel blue and silver dominate, with selective crimson lights and antique gold ornamentation. Dramatic backlighting, monumental scale, extreme contrast, dense mechanical detail, ominous military grandeur.

Frame the poster with a thin ornate antique-gold border. Across the bottom, place the exact words “THEY WILL DREAM OF US FOREVER.” in very large, condensed, distressed gold serif capitals. Beneath the slogan, add a golden eagle with outstretched wings and rows of gold stars.

Maintain a strongly symmetrical composition, with Trump as the central focal point. Make it feel like a lavish dystopian movie poster blending American presidential imagery with gothic science-fiction militarism.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 06/09/2026

From the same piece, written a week ago:

- When climate activists block a highway or throw something at a painting in the UK, the country is treated to 500 articles about whether this particular type of protest is the most operationally, tactically, and strategically optimal method of securing long-term policy change on environmental issues.

- When Bazza and the Restraining Order Lads attempt to burn asylum seekers and immigrants alive inside their accommodation, every article spends throat clearing paragraphs noting that of course they’re driven by serious and valid concerns about immigration (and not as basic observation would suggest, serious and valid amounts of cocaine).

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 26/08/2026

Can you find me one that thinks this TAM is realistic? I'll wait here.

Chart from SpaceX IPO listing their estimated enterprise application TAM at $28.5 trillion.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 24/08/2026

That would also be bad, and we should call it out when we see it.

A complicating factor here is that the decision to deplatform, withdraw a stage or even censor, is made by people who live in the world and are thus not immune to public pressure or bandwagoning. Certainly if enough people are talking about it online, writing angry letters, talking to journalists and so on, an invitation or offer of employment might be reconsidered.

We should be sceptical and scathing of organizations whose decisions at such times are driven exclusively by the wrath of the online mob and do not appear to have internal logic or justification. I’m sure this happened in the past and there are anecdotal examples, but I don’t think this is the case all that often. It certainly doesn’t appear true regarding Cofnas.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 24/08/2026

I don't disasgree with that at all, and tried to make that clear.

The role of platform hosts and operators in free speech is a fascinating topic, especially in places like Twitter, TikTok and Facebook where an algorithm curates what is served to you and how often.

It is, however, not what we are talking about 98% of the time when we hear whining about cancel culture and deplatforming. The multi-month period during which Elon Musk got sick of Ukraine and algorithmically buried every reference to it on Twitter was bad, but I don’t recall Toby Young chaining himself to a Tesla over it.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 22/08/2026

Yes, many such cases! I have written about this: www.explaintrade.com/resources/tr...

Deals with the Devil
A devastatingly handsome and disarmingly humble trade geek recently wrote a book about how often trade policy tends to be politics first, economics a distant seventh. You should buy two copies for each of your pets.

One aspect of trade policy becoming political is that the popularity of a country and its national leader abroad can give those they are negotiating with more or less political space to do deals with them.

Any trade deal requires making concessions that are going to piss some people in your country off. If I lower a tariff, the companies who enjoyed tariff protection are going to complain loudly about it.

The less the average voter in your country trusts or likes a foreign leader, the less patience they have for tolerating your making politically painful concessions to them in order to get a deal across the line.

The Trump administration’s rather bellicose America-first rhetoric and general posture is actively limiting the political space other leaders have to make deals. The most obvious example of this is of course Canada, where proximity to Trump cost the opposition leader a double digit lead in the polls and propelled Mark Carney into power on the back of an ‘elbows up’ message.

As a general rule, you want to avoid making fighting you a political slam dunk for foreign politicians - and unfortunately for Trump’s trade policy goals, in many places it is.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 20/08/2026

Yes! I basically open my book with this!

Politicians best tell lies and half-truths when reality is confusing or
counterintuitive. Where ‘common sense’ suggests the world faces one
way, when it actually faces another. This is not a phenomenon unique
to trade. When discussing the national budget, politicians calling for
cuts love nothing more than to liken the government to a family that
must live within its means. Anyone familiar with how government
finances actually work will tell you this analogy is easily understood
and completely wrong. Yet politicians persist in evoking it year after
year precisely because it sounds correct.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 20/08/2026

Creating a hugely expensive, onerous, and almost certainly cruel nationwide bureaucracy to somehow task, monitor, and manage millions of wildly differently abled people as they do 20 hours of weekly community service... ... to address a 'feeling' that someone may be getting something for nothing.

Nigel Farage Tweet:

Reform will end "something for nothing" Britain.

If you can work and have been on benefits for over a year, you'll have to do 20 hours of community work every week or lose your benefits.

That's just common sense.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 13/08/2026

You're laughing? They cancelled a "try on a Kimono" art exhibit eleven years ago, and you're laughing?

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 13/08/2026

I was at an opticians yesterday and they were selling the Ray-Ban Pervert Glasses. I'd never gotten a close look before. They are virtually visually indistinguishable from any other pair of sunglasses unless you REALLY know what to look for. Ban them immediately, what the fuck?

Rayban Meta glasses. They look like black sunglasses.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 10/08/2026

The one thing everyone knows about chess is how the game always works out for both sides.

"It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the back and forth with Iran.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 06/08/2026

It has been six years and I'm still not quite nervous enough.

Tweet from Paul Joseph Watson:
"The right is starting to get better at comedy and it's making lefties nervous."

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 03/08/2026

Gentlemen, I believe I have a pitch that will appeal to both Pete Hegsteth and Donald Trump.

Don Draper from Mad Men, in an army uniform pitching "Tequila and Tariffs"

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 02/08/2026

For the record I didn't post this as a draft script.

Post by Dmitry Grozoubinski on Bluesky:

"She gave as good as she got, it was all a bit of fun and banter."

Was it?

Or was she desperately trying to diffuse the situation by playing along because you and three of your gigantic drunk mates had her cornered in a crowded bar and she's 5'2"?
10:46 AM · Jul 31, 2026

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 28/07/2026

I am normally the first to defend civil servants. However, if this reporting is true then there should be mass firings and if at all legally feasible, criminal charges. To butcher a West Wing quote: everyone who did it, everyone who ordered it, and everyone who knew about it.

A senior judge has accused the Home Office of relying on “AI hallucinated” information to refuse an asylum claim.

The case relates to a Moroccan woman and her child who fled her country after experiencing forced underage marriage and extreme violence, including rape. The woman claimed asylum on the basis of fears that she would be killed by her husband: a powerful, previously convicted criminal.

The Home Office refused her case, citing evidence from a supposedly independent and authoritative document known as a country policy information note (CPIN), which they said confirmed that Morocco would be safe for her.

But the document could not be found, although its existence was relied upon by a judge who rejected her appeal against the Home Office’s refusal decision in an immigration court known as the first-tier tribunal.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 27/07/2026

Yes! I wrote this in July of last year talking about the inevitable self-defeating nature of being a massive tool. www.explaintrade.com/resources/tr...

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 16/07/2026

Google's AI summary so take with a grain of salt, but I don't think "no one" is entirely correct.

Reform UK: Advocates for re-industrialization by abandoning Net Zero policies, which they claim would drastically reduce electricity costs for manufacturers. They have engaged with industry leaders to draft alternative strategies focusing on retaining domestic virgin steel-making capacity and using targeted procurement to protect British supply chains.

Restore Britain: Led by Rupert Lowe, the party emerged from a split within Reform UK and campaigns on a localized, protectionist platform. They emphasize policies to repeal regulations that hinder British families and businesses, heavily prioritizing the rebuilding of domestic sovereign capabilities and supporting local grassroots manufacturing.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 10/07/2026

Can't believe he managed to stretch, "US bad, and also only country on earth with agency" to 450 pages. Kind of impressive, honestly.

In pursuit of this aggressive geopolitical design, successive US administrations exploited Ukraine’s internal divisions and sabotaged every chance for compromise while relentlessly backing Russia into a corner. Gambling with the global economy and risking nuclear war, US planners then provoked and prolonged an illegal Russian invasion that has had catastrophic consequences—for the Ukrainian people above all.

Washington’s cynical foreign policy did not just detonate peace in Europe but also deranged politics at home. Controversies around Russia and Ukraine played a pivotal role in three consecutive US presidential campaigns, driving the national hysteria known as “Russiagate” as well as the first impeachment of Donald Trump.

With Trump's re-election pledge to broker peace still elusive, Maté presents a groundbreaking account of how the Russia–Ukraine conflict came to be, and how a brutal proxy war with existential stakes for humanity can finally be resolved.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 07/07/2026

To stay completely on brand this announcement should just be a donations link to a GoFundMe page for a Cayman Islands LLC with a Russian name that's currently under fraud and tax evasion investigation by half the free world.

Tweet from Nigel Farage MP.

It reads, "I will make a statement on my future in public life at 2pm."

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 05/07/2026

He's being illustrative here but this this actually summarizes so much of conservative policymaking on issues well beyond immigration. "We must drop everything to focus on being as cruel as possible or risk a wildly improbable, highly contrived scenario I have just invented."

Tweet from Stephen Miller:

"If you believe a foreign government can sail a hospital ship to the edge of US territorial waters, deliver a hundred babies to foreign moms, then promptly sail back to a foreign port, and that every one of those babies is American for life, you don't believe in nationhood at all."

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 26/06/2026

I for one would like, subscribe and leave a comment for the algo.

A parody MrBeast-style YouTube thumbnail. On the left, an excited MrBeast-like creator with a huge open-mouthed expression points toward a sparse grey room. On the right, journalist Marie Le Conte sits on a bed holding Dmitry Grozoubinski’s book Why Politicians Lie About Trade. Large text reads “3 MONTHS,” “ONLY THIS BOOK!” and “$1,000,000,” with a red countdown timer showing “90:00:00,” stacks of cash, and a wall sign saying “NO PHONE. NO INTERNET. NO ESCAPE.”

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 26/06/2026

Hey Stephen. Stephen, I got Mark Carney. I got Mark Carney, Stephen. Is that good? It seems good. Who did you get? Are they as cool as Mark Carney? Stephen? Buddy? Are an admirable public figure like Mark Carney, Stephen? Stephen? Is your guy destroying society? Stephen? Pal?

The results of my political affiliation quiz.

Your Results
81% Woke - 19% Chud
61% Techbro - 39% Neo-Luddite
75% Hopepilled - 25% Doomer
83% Davos - 17% Dubai

My closest match is Mark Carney the Canadian Prime Minister.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 23/06/2026

I cannot overstate how minor this project is in aid terms. They were spending 2 million a year out of a $52 billion (2014) USAID budget. That's 0.0038%. If the US could spontaneously trigger revolutions half-way across the world with grants like this, I promise you it would happen more.

The project accomplished notable achievements in three of its four objectives.

Objective 1. Pact reported providing 116 local advocacy grants to CSOs and coalition groups that achieved positive results in areas such as local government accountability, citizen participation, and empowering disadvantaged groups. Pact reported that grantees initiated 69 advocacy campaigns that led to the approval of 62 local level regulatory acts. In addition, Pact reported that coalition efforts that included the participation of local and national actors initiated 29 regulatory acts and public policies at the national level.

Objective 2. The project supported 46 positive modifications made to enabling legislation or regulations for civil society at local and national levels. For example, the Law on Charity and Charitable Organizations was adopted in part because of a project partner that led efforts to draft the law. The new law simplified registration procedures for charitable organizations, increased their transparency requirements, and gave them new ways of getting funding, such as
charitable bequests.

Objective 3. Pact reported that it helped 551 organizations improve their internal organizational
capacity.

Through the Marketplace voucher system, project grantees and other CSOs applied for consultations, training, and educational programs in areas such as strategic planning, organizational and financial management, and fund-raising skills.

Despite these notable achievements, the audit found that:

• The project’s primary goal was not realistic (page 4). The goal was difficult to achieve, and even if realized, the results may not be directly attributed to the project.

• CSOs were not more financially sustainable (page 5). They remained largely dependent on funding from international donors.

• USAID’s verification of Pact’s data was inadequate (page 6). The performance indicator results Pact reported to the mission were not always accurate or reliable.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 05/06/2026

Terry Pratchett absolutely nailed this in Maskerade and Going Postal.

"Definitely that kind of owner, he thought. Self-made man proud of his handiwork. Confuses bluffness and honesty with merely being rude. I wouldn't mind betting a dollar that he thinks he can tell a man's character by testing the firmness of his handshake and looking deeply into his eyes."

It was the face, that was what it was. He had an honest face. And he loved those people who looked him firmly in the eye to see his inner self, because he had a whole set of inner selves, one for every occasion. As for firm handshakes, practice had given him one to which you could moor boats. It was people skills, that's what it was. Special people skills. Before you could sell glass as diamonds you had to make people really want to see diamonds. That was the trick, the trick of all tricks. You changed the way people saw the world. You let them see it the way they wanted it to be.
— Moist von Lipvig, Going Postal

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 25/05/2026

Is there anything on Mars we actually want? If you want an incredibly dry place with very little to recommend it that has a vast amount of room really far away from civilization, there are other options:

A map of Australia with the desert bit circled.

The desert bit is most of it.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 23/05/2026

No really. I talk about it within like 15 pages.

Trade is especially vulnerable to this kind of demagoguery. Although
it is confusing and technical, with many knock-on effects that only
happen further down the line, trade is also the sort of topic people feel like they intuitively ‘get’. This leaves them open to confidently spouted
rubbish disguised as plain spoken common sense. Trade rhetoric is
inflated with this hot air.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 21/05/2026

With the greatest possible respect, this is wild.

The congressional approval process will offer more opportunities for the public and elected representatives to shape trade agreements. I will seek expedited congressional approval of trade agreements only when every regional advisory committee and the labor, consumer, and rural advisory committees unanimously certify that the agreement serves their interests. I will also expand the list of congressional committees that must review any agreement before it is eligible for expedited consideration.

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 08/05/2026

7/ Then today, out of nowhere and without me actually having appealed again, YouTube arbitrarily reinstates my account. Again, no explanation of what I did to pop up on their radar and no explanation of why I was exonerated. Just missives lobbed from beyond visual range here.

Hi Dmitry Grozoubinski (ExplainTrade.com),

We’re pleased to let you know that we’ve recently reviewed your YouTube account, and after taking another look, we can confirm that it is not in violation of our Terms of Service. We have lifted the suspension of your account, and it is once again active and operational.

We’d like to thank you for your patience while we reviewed this case.

If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us here.

Sincerely,
The YouTube team

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 08/05/2026

5/ 24 hours later I receive an "Appeal Rejected" with no explanation. The "resolution options" button, after a bit of clicking, takes you to a form that's basically exactly like the one I already filled in to appeal, albeit with I think 200 extra characters to use.

Hi Dmitry Grozoubinski (ExplainTrade.com),

We have reviewed your appeal for the following:

Channel: Dmitry Grozoubinski (ExplainTrade.com)

We reviewed your channel carefully, and have confirmed that it violates our spam, deceptive practices and scams policy. We know this is probably disappointing news, but it's our job to make sure that YouTube is a safe place for all.

How this affects your channel

We won't be putting your channel back up on YouTube.

Learn about your resolution options.

Thanks,
The YouTube team

Please briefly explain why you think your channel was suspended in error. Be sure to review YouTube’s Community Guidelines and copyright policies before submitting your appeal. Please note: If your appeal involves one or more private videos, by submitting this request you are explicitly giving permission for our reviewers to view your private video content. *

Then there's a box with 1000 characters worth of text to fill in.

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