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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Our work on the Chinese dominance on critical minerals with @joshkirk.co.uk @helene-rey.bsky.social featured at @lesechosfr.bsky.social www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats...

lesechos.fr

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Since the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran a massive gas and fertilizer shock is driving soaring input costs, threatening African harvests and risking a sharp rise in global food insecurity. My article at The Conversation: theconversation.com/grace-a-un-a...

theconversation.com

Grâce à un algorithme, comprendre pourquoi le blocage du détroit d’Ormuz fait craindre une crise alimentaire

Avec la fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz, l’ombre d’une crise alimentaire plane dans tous les esprits. Pour les pays africains, le choc tombe au pire moment : celui des semis.

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 02/06/2026

Register now for the 9th @univdauphine.bsky.social Finance PhD Workshop 29 June 2026 | Université Paris Dauphine - PSL Keynote lecture: Janet Gao Organisers: @evgeniapassari.bsky.social, Zoran Filipović, & Polina Bulavko Find the programme and register by 12 June: cepr.org/events/9th-d... #EconSky

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

⏳One week to apply to the 9th Annual Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop jointly organized with the @cepr.org ! Send us your best papers ! @univdauphine.bsky.social

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

When Iran closed the strait of Hormuz the debate focused on oil prices and petrol pumps. Our VoxEU column with @alvinulido, S. Mouabbi & @Adrien_Rousset shows that effective economic policy must consider broader supply chain dynamics following supply bottlenecks 👇

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

12/13 Our framework provides policymakers and market participants a new lens to understand commodity market disruptions and their heterogeneous global impacts.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

11/13 Was the COVID supply chain experience exceptional? Our work shows diverse commodity disruptions systematically shape macro outcomes—COVID-19 was just part of a broader pattern.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

10/13 For central banks: this means different policy responses required depending on your country's commodity position. One-size-fits-all tightening could exacerbate output losses for net importers.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

9/13 Net exporters are partially insulated, able to offset higher import costs with commodity revenue gains. The following four figures show the response of industrial production on oil supply (top row) and non-oil supply disturbances (bottom row) across commodity importing and exporting countries.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

8/13 Net importers of both oil and non-oil commodities (think most European and Asian nations) face a double whammy: stronger inflation pass-through and more persistent output contractions.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

7/13 To illustrate: consider the response of inflation to a negative commodity supply development driven by geopolitical risk. The following four figures show the response of inflation on oil (top row) and non-oil supply disturbances (bottom row) across commodity importing and exporting countries.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

6/13 Relevant *right now*: the response of inflation and output to supply-side shocks driven by geopolitical risk dominates. For a potential conflict escalation, this means: initial inflation spikes across most economies, but the effects differ dramatically between net importers vs. exporters.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

5/13 Our most striking finding is that supply disturbances in non-oil commodities (natural gas, metals, grains, etc.) affect inflation and industrial production at least as strongly as oil. The literature's narrow focus has severely understated commodity shocks' importance.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

4/13 Our innovation: automated narrative analysis to create daily supply and demand proxies of shocks for 20 commodities. We further decompose commodity fluctuations into key drivers including geopolitical risk, natural disasters, and climate change.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

3/13 Why? Because modern economies depend on a much broader commodity basket. The COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine, and current geopolitical tensions make this gap impossible to ignore.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

2/13 Our @cepr.org WP "Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations", with Alvin Lumbanraja, Sarah Mouabbi and Adrien Rousset Planat, analyzes 1.1 million news articles to build the first comprehensive framework measuring supply/demand disturbances across the entire commodity space.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

1/13 As Middle East tensions escalate, markets are fixated on oil prices. But our new research suggests the economic fallout from Iran conflict goes way beyond oil as the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping chokepoint—remains closed, with some countries facing much harder recoveries than others.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

📣 The call for the 9th Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop joint with the @cepr_org is out! Submit your best work by the 10th of April via the CEPR platform and see you in Paris in June! Excited to host Janet Gao who will be delivering the keynote address. @univdauphine.bsky.social @cepr.org

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

More rare earths depression for Europe. It's too slow so US rivals getting supplies first “If we look at how long it takes us on average to sell, say, a ton of terbium to a European partner, we’re talking 3-4 weeks; with the Americans it’s more 3-4 days"

bloomberg.com

US Firms Are Snapping Up the Rare Earths Europe Needs to Rearm

As Europe embarks on a historic rearming effort, its defense companies are scrambling for a vital component in high-tech weapons: rare earth minerals, which more nimble US rivals are scooping up.

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 19/09/2025

Dimitris Malliaropulos, @evgeniapassari.bsky.social, & Filippos Petroulakis analyse more than one million Reuters news articles and find that text-based indicators of supply and demand disturbances significantly enhance #inflation forecasting accuracy. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Graph showing net demand indices and the business cycle.

Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column analyses more than a million Reuters news articles between 2001 and 2023 to capture supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. The findings show that text-based indicators of supply and demand disturbances significantly enhance inflation forecasting accuracy, allowing policymakers to better understand the nature of inflationary pressures and adjust their responses accordingly.

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Bordeaux Sciences Economiques / Bordeaux School of Economics @bsebordeaux.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

📣 Today at #EEA2025 Congress @bsebordeaux.bsky.social @univbordeaux.bsky.social, we are pleased to be listening to Helene Rey @helene-rey.bsky.social (London Business School) discuss Geoeconomics and Strategic Minerals for the Green Transition

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

Determinants and consequences of populism still in vogue. Featuring our 2018 Brookings paper with Sergei, Elias and Yann.

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Max Roser @maxroser.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

In 2014, half of Greece's electricity was generated by coal. A decade later, that share has fallen to just 6%.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Looking forward to the 8th edition of the Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop, this year orginized jointly with the @cepr.org with the kind support of Labex Louis Bachelier. Fantastic papers and keynote lecture by Wenxin Du. Register by e-mail at dauphine.workshop@gmail.com by July 4th!

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Looking forward to seeing you at our upcoming "Tech 4 Finance: AI and Blockchain" Conference, organized by Chaire Fintech Dauphine on May 19-20, 2025 at @univdauphine.bsky.social. Link to the program and registration: dauphine.psl.eu/en/fintech-c... Keynote by @dimitrispapan.bsky.social

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

4 days to apply to the 8th Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop joint with the @cepr.org ! @univdauphine.bsky.social

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 20/04/2025

A senior automotive executive described China’s latest export controls on rare earth minerals as a 7 or 8 on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of severity. on.ft.com/42ujjqk

on.ft.com

China’s rare earths controls prompt fears of auto shortages and shutdowns

Traders and executives warn of limited inventories and a risk of disruption to automotive production

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

It's kind of telling that Trump thought he was punishing China by making it prohibitively expensive for American manufacturers to buy critically important inputs, and China countered by making it impossible for American manufacturers to buy critically important inputs www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/b...

nytimes.com

China Halts Critical Rare Earth Exports as Trade War Intensifies (Gift Article)

Beijing has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

The call for the 8th Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop joint with the @cepr.org is out! Submit your best work by the 27th of April via the CEPR platform and see you in Paris in July. Excited to host Wenxin Du who will be delivering the keynote address. @univdauphine.bsky.social

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Reposted by Evgenia Passari

Farzad Saidi @farzado.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

New @kiel.institute Policy Brief (with @filpet4.bsky.social): How are capital markets reacting to Germany's proposed €500bn infrastructure investment + defense spending boost? Surging Bund yields reflect growth optimism, not default concerns -- in contrast to the UK's 2022 Truss episode.

ifw-kiel.de

In Merz We Truss: Financial Market Reaction to Germany’s Fiscal Package | Kiel InstituteMenu

• This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany’s recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure ...

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Ed Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

✍️Despite being the world's biggest oil producer, America is v reliant on Canadian oil. And getting MORE reliant, not less. So what happens when tariffs get imposed on Canada? The answers are quite unsettling, for the American people... and for everyone else edconway.substack.com/p/america-st...

edconway.substack.com

America still needs Canadian oil. Here's why

And why the tariffs on Canada could plausibly lead to America doing deals with considerably more shady countries. A dive into the weird and wonderful world of heavy oil

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Text-based demand indicators for energy, metals, agricultural commodities and livestock share a common component that strongly correlates with the business cycle, consistent with inflationary, aggregate demand dynamics. More work coming out soon, stay tuned! 13/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

To mitigate this challenge, we employ the narrative-based indicators of Mouabbi, Passari, and Rousset Planat (2024), that use textual analysis on business news to build supply and demand-side proxies of shocks for a big number of commodities. 12/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Although the literature has provided us with reliable measures of shocks for the oil market, the price drivers of other commodities remain understudied. 11/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Meanwhile, commodities such as coffee, which are imperfect substitutes for cocoa, may see limited demand effects, remaining relatively insulated from price changes. 10/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

For instance, a negative supply shock in the cocoa market may elevate cocoa prices while exerting downward pressure on the price of sugar, given their complementary nature in consumption. 9/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Conversely, supply shocks that are idiosyncratic to specific commodities can generate varying effects on the general price level, depending on the interplay between substitute and complementary goods: 8/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Under the presence of aggregate demand shocks, that affect most sectors of the economy homogeneously, the relationship between commodity prices and inflation tends to be unambiguous, reflecting substantial passthrough effects, leading to a strong link with inflation dynamics. 7/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Commodities provide distinct information about future inflation relative to existing predictors, inflation expectations and survey forecasts, but the predictive power of commodity prices is obscured by the different passthrough of supply and demand shocks to inflation. 6/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Background: Monetary authorities have long recognized that commodity prices are significant inflation determinants but their predictive power has been low since the mid-80s. 5/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

We finally apply our indices to the inflation decomposition framework of Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) and corroborate their finding that the bulk of pandemic-era inflation can be attributed to commodity supply disruptions, resulting in price increases in goods markets. 4/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Supply matters in particular circumstances, for instance during the recent period of the pandemic and geopolitical shocks. 3/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Demand developments play a significantly larger role in prediction because they typically lead to uniform increases in quantities and prices of goods across the consumer basket, resulting in a clear and positive relationship between commodity prices and overall inflation. 2/n

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Evgenia Passari @evgeniapassari.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

We document that narrative-sourced, commodity supply and demand indices substantially reduce the out-of-sample forecast error in inflation over and beyond common predictors such as past inflation, interest rates, growth, market indexes, volatility and commodity returns. 1/n

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