Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Evidence from 100 Social Science Prediction Platform projects shows that research forecasts are too optimistic on average, but still predictive enough to improve study design when they are combined, shrunk, and weighted carefully.

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...