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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

In the language of America it is called "The Epic War of Fury", in the language of Israel “The Roar of the Lion,” and in the language of Iran “True Promise 4.” Yet, in my view, it is "The Great Middle East war", one that will change the face of the entire region. 🧵

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

The file of a ground operation, which he does not want, has now moved closer to his desk. In his other hand holds the file of ending the ninth war since the start of his second term.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Meanwhile, in Israel, Netanyahu awaits a whisper from the Mossad and military intelligence leadership to reinvigorate the war effort, while his eyes are fixed on areas north of the Litani River in Lebanon and Sana'a. In Washington, Trump is looking toward his generals with anticipation.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Victory, in their view, is no longer about preserving interests and achieving gains, but about striking enemies, creating pain, and inflicting the greatest possible losses upon them. With such a mindset, the diplomatic path becomes almost invisible.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

against America, Israel, and the Gulf states. Amidst doubts about whether Mojtaba is alive or dead, the conclusion is the same: Tehran today is no longer the same pragmatist and patient Tehran it once was. It has reverted to the mentality of the early days of the Islamic Revolution.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

In his first message, delivered in written, Mojtaba Khamenei revealed what we, as observers, already knew: a hardline, religious-military mindset. The statement contained no indication of peace or diplomacy; rather, it reiterated the IRGC leadership's threatening rhetoric

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

offensive a new positive momentum as soon as possible. He knows that the growing scepticism in Washington may push Trump to end the war, so the new card may buy him more time and keep morale high within the Israeli society, which has begun to grow tired of the atmosphere of alert.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

However, the situation in Tehran does not appear sufficient for Netanyahu's aspirations. Regime change there remains an Israeli objective, even if it means more days and weeks of war. Therefore, Netanyahu must put a new card on the table that gives the Israeli-American

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

oday the fronts have become clearer. Yes, Netanyahu's administration was expecting Iranian missile and drone attacks similar to the 12-day war. Netanyahu also knew that Hezbollah would participate in this war, and therefore Israel would have to fight on several fronts.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

political leadership whose electoral interests aligned with it, a military leadership that had been preparing for this war for two decades, Gaza removed from the equation of danger, Hezbollah weakened, and Trump in the White House: and so, the war began.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

From this perspective, Netanyahu believed that if a war with Iran, in alliance with Washington, ended in victory, would mean that his return to the premiership was only a matter of time. The result: an Israeli public ready for war, a

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

which has been in a state of war since October 7, 2013, was willing to endure a few more weeks of conflict. If the war ended in victory for Israel, the Middle East could be opened to Israeli influence and, consequently, lasting peace.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Netanyahu, who was forced to end the Gaza war with an agreement that satisfied Trump more than the Israeli right wing, believed that appeasing Trump was a prelude to the Iranian war. In the Israeli political mindset, a war with Iran had become popularly acceptable, and Israeli society,

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

With the end of the 12-day war, we, as observers, were convinced that what had happened was only a round and that a full-scale war was only a matter of time.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

presenting a convincing picture to the American ally, which was still hesitant that the Iranian regime, which had faced four waves of widespread protests in the last two decades, would not be a source of military threat in the face of Israeli military capabilities and advanced American technology.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

However, the timing and scale of this war were still unclear. The decision became more certain after Trump's victory in the presidential elections. The 12-day war came as an Israeli initiative aimed at testing the Iranian response and Tehran's defensive military capabilities, while also

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

In my opinion, the decision to engage in military confrontation with the Iranian regime was made in the early days following the October 7th attacks. The Iranian project had become a clearer and more visible threat and had borne its teeth through Hamas's attack on the Gaza envelope.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

It can be said that we are approaching a point where Trump faces two options: either expand the war to include a ground intervention (even a limited one) or end it and consider what has been achieved sufficient and declare victory.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Striking military bases has not halted attacks in the region, nor has it stopped the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the number of voices questioning the viability of continuing this war, which still appears insufficient to change the Iranian Islamic regime, are growing.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Today, nearly two weeks into this war, and despite the enthusiastic statements from Trump, his administration, and his generals, the situation appears more complex than anticipated. The target bank is expanding daily to include energy and industrial facilities.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

This was the Israeli message conveyed to the White House. The result was a combination of external and internal pressure and a race against time, amid a closed diplomatic track and a military danger from Iran that did not seem serious, so the decision was made for war.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

At the same time, there was significant Israeli pressure pushing toward the military option, which it argued had become inevitable. “Either the US and Israel take the initiative, or Tehran will go towards a secret nuclear bomb or a pre-emptive military strike.”

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

launch of "Operation Midnight Hammer", during which Washington destroyed three nuclear sites that were the most important for the Iranian nuclear project. The Iranian response was again limited by targeting the Al-Udeid base in Qatar after it had been evacuated.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani at the beginning of 2020, despite its impact and pain on the Iranian regime, was met with a very limited response: a few missiles fired at a US military base in Iraq. Then came America’s participation in the 12-day war through the

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Iran would not be costly and prolonged. Moreover, the Iranian responses to American strikes in previous years gave the Trump administration the impression that the Iranian regime would not go to uncontrolled escalation.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

However, the deadlock in negotiations and the approaching US midterm elections, which may not produce satisfactory results for the Republicans, prompted Trump to adopt the decision. The success of the move in Venezuela encouraged the belief that a war in

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

There was no consensus in the White House regarding the decision to go to war with Iran. One of Trump's closest confidants and his chief negotiator, Steve Wittkoff, was among the leading opponents of the move. Vice President Vance was also not enthusiastic about this adventure.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Then came the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, confirming the IRGC's control over decision-making in Iran, which will complicate any possible future diplomatic path, and it place the US and Israel before limited options for ending the current war.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

were heard in Manama, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. This contradiction between statements and actions cannot be interpreted as a game of role-playing, but it confirms what has been recently reported about disagreements between the leaders of the IRGC and the political leadership.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Headquarters, one of the most important bases of the IRGC, to confirm the closure of Hormuz. Then, a statement from the Iranian President, Pezeshkian, affirmed that the Gulf states would not be targeted, yet no later than a minute after this statement, air-raid sirens

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

of officials from the Foreign Ministry and the presidency on one side, and military statements and actions on the other. Foreign Minister Araghchi came out to confirm that the Strait of Hormuz would not be closed, only for a commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Between the assassination of Ali Khamenei and the inauguration of his son, and despite the military and political arrangements that had been prepared in advance, differences in opinions and actions were clearly visible through the contradictions between the statements

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

The result was the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei to the position of Supreme Leader, marking the beginning of a new phase, this time with strategic war patience mixed with military madness.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

In fact, the IRGC, which during this war had become independent of the official military institutions and had risen to prominence in Iran, was able to achieve this.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

considered was the cleric Ali Reza Arafi, who was selected for the interim leadership council. Arafi was supported by the clergy in Iran and within the Assembly of Experts. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had a different opinion: Mojtaba Khamenei was their only candidate.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Tehran indicated disagreements within the ruling institutions and the Assembly of Experts. Many criticized the idea of Iran's leadership being based on hereditary succession, as the Iranian Revolution itself was founded on ending dynastic rule. Among the names strongly

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

began communicating with the presidency to form a council to lead the regime until the selection of the new Supreme Leader was finalized. One of the four names on the table was Mojtaba. Despite Khamenei's recommendation that his son succeed him, sources inside

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Tehran managed to absorb the attack and launch a counter-offensive. Politically, the institutions responsible for managing the situation functioned almost normally. The Assembly of Experts had a shortlist of four names from which one would be selected, and the Judiciary

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

However, the Iranian military response and the escalation towards a regional war did not take long. The Iranian regime appeared ready, unlike on the first day of the 12-day war, when it seemed confused. Although the first strike of the war was more violent and more extensive,

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

in the region, the responsibility of leading the war militarily through his influence in the IRGC and the army. The second track had been prepared over many years: Khamenei had been laying the ground for his son Mojtaba to succeed him. Indeed, 60 seconds after the war began, Khamenei was dead.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

In Tehran, this assassination was already on the table, prompting Khamenei to prepare two tracks to deal with such an event. On one hand, he assigned Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the official responsible for the file of Iranian-backed militias

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

The assassination of Khamenei in the first seconds of the war was not surprising to many observers. More than a month before the war began, I had outlined three war scenarios, and in the third scenario the first step was the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

also retains the ability to launch devastating strikes against American military bases in the region, as well as against Israeli territory, and to close the Strait of Hormuz for several more months. Within these two perspectives, a deeper analysis of the Iranian political landscape is necessary.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

From the official Iranian perspective, however, the Iranian armed forces, with their three branches - the regular army, the IRGC, and the Basij - remain highly capable of sustaining the war, both defensively and offensively, for several more months. Tehran

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Therefore, it can be said that from the point of view of the US and Israel, about 80% of Iran’s military capabilities (excluding its ground capabilities) have been eliminated, and the remaining targets are of lower importance and impact.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

program, Trump and other American officials have confirmed the destruction of a large portion of Iran's stockpile, along with the destruction of approximately 70 to 80% of its launch platforms, while simultaneously inflicting severe blows on the Iranian drone program.

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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي @evacool.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Washington during "Operation Midnight Hammer". However, there is no information so far about the quantity of highly enriched uranium possessed by Tehran, which is said to still be inside the Isfahan site. As for Iran's missile

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