Sign in

Eric Hillebrand

@erichillebrand.bsky.social
856 followers 529 following 47 posts

Climate econometrics, statistical climate models, emissions and the macroeconomy, professor at Aarhus University's Economics Department, co-organizer of EMCC (tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb), sites.google.com/site/erichillebrand/

PostsRepliesMedia
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New publication: the Global Carbon Budget (CO₂ concentration, emissions, land and ocean sinks) as a cointegrated system. Emissions are the single stochastic trend; the cointegrating relations are the physical ones. SSP projections match established climate science. doi.org/10.1093/ectj...
doi.org
The Global Carbon Budget as a cointegrated system
Summary. The Global Carbon Budget, maintained by the Global Carbon Project, summarizes Earth’s global carbon cycle through four annual time series beginnin
042
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New work out: We review the latest version of the Global Carbon Budget data set and compare it to its predecessors. The 2025 update leaves the global budget equation imbalanced in the mean over the sample 1959-2024. arxiv.org/abs/2608.11821 with @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
arxiv.org
Auditing the Global Carbon Budget: Exploring the 2024--2025 Vintage Shift
The Global Carbon Budget (GCB), the community reference dataset for the carbon cycle, is reissued annually. The 2025 release introduces several adjustments to the published series that we compare with...
043
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
On this day 26 years ago, suddenly I had the very rough idea of a novel. The idea stayed with me. I worked on it. Obviously more off than on. But even the snail reaches the finish line in the end. essence.info bsky.app/profile/esse...
essence.info
Essence
473
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
The book has appeared! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com
Teaching Econometrics
This book collects advances and reflections on the teaching of econometrics from internationally well-known econometricians
031
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Associate or full position in energy economics at AU! Link in comment
linkedin.com
#assa #aea #eea #econjobmarket #academicjobs #iaee | Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE
Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet and Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE, invite expressions of interest from distinguished scholars for a tenured position as Associate...
154
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Rachel Lupien @loopdlupien.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
New paper out in @egu.eu's Climate of the Past together with economists (@mbennedsen.bsky.social @erichillebrand.bsky.social) to apply their rate prediction tools to the Cenozoic stack for detecting the timing and duration of breakpoints. Really fun. @au.dk cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...
cp.copernicus.org
Estimating breakpoints in the Cenozoic Era: an econometric approach
Abstract. This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. Our approach ...
0118
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
New paper out: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
journals.ametsoc.org
031
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
We celebrated Carter Hill's birthday yesterday with the presentation of an edited volume in his honor: "Teaching Econometrics - A Tribute to R. Carter Hill". link.springer.com/book/9783031... It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.
link.springer.com
Teaching Econometrics
This book collects advances and reflections on the teaching of econometrics from internationally well-known econometricians
020
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Forskerforum has written a piece about my unfortunate experience with the Danish Office for Naturalization (in Danish) dm.dk/forskerforum...
dm.dk
For international til at blive dansker
AU-professor Eric Hillebrand troede, at det efter 13 år i Danmark som fastansat forsker ville være en formssag at få statsborgerskab. Men nej – han rejser for meget.
042
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Special Issue – The Econometrics Journal Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026 Call for papers: sites.google.com/view/emcccon...
sites.google.com
EMCC - Call for papers - The Econometrics Journal
The Econometrics Journal and EMCC call for papers for a new special issue on Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition with a submission deadline of February 28, 2026. We welcom...
072
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Econometric Models of Climate Change, 9th annual conference at the University of Victoria, Canada, Aug 27-28, 2025 Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic
tinyurl.com
9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) – Felix Pretis
133
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
New work on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2412.09226 The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.
arxiv.org
The Global Carbon Budget as a cointegrated system
The Global Carbon Budget, maintained by the Global Carbon Project, summarizes Earth's global carbon cycle through four annual time series beginning in 1959: atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations, anthropo...
051
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
e360.yale.edu/features/gav... www.newscientist.com/article/2458...
e360.yale.edu
What’s Causing the Recent Spike in Global Temperatures?
Since early 2023, the world has seen a steep rise in temperatures that scientists are struggling to explain. Our contributor Elizabeth Kolbert talked with Gavin Schmidt, NASA’s top climate scientist, ...
140
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Michael Bertram @michaelgbertram.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Earlier this year, I received news that fake peer reviews were allegedly being submitted impersonating me and approximately six others I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
‘It felt very icky’: This scientist’s name was used to write fake peer reviews
Elsevier retracts dozens of journal articles that were published based on “fictitious” reviews
26436195
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Climate Science Can’t Keep Up With the Warming Planet
We need more timely updates in response to the rapid changes to the climate.
010
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Pierre Friedlingstein @pfriedling.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
The global carbon budget 2024 is out
12350188
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 03/10/2024
New work in Nature Communications about the CO2 airborne fraction, the part of emissions that remains in the atmosphere www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction - Nature Communications
A presented regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction is statistically superior to the conventional ratio-based approach. It reduces estimation uncertainty, requires fewer assumptions, an...
033
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 18/06/2024
The new Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE is a public-private research center jointly initiated by Aarhus BSS - @aarhusuni.bsky.social and InCommodities. We had this video made professionally to summarize what we're about. Check it out. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...
youtube.com
CoRE Research
Video produced by Gotfat Productions
032
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 03/05/2024
8th annual conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-VIII): Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15 University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17 tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
tinyurl.com
EMCC
News: EMCC-VIII Call for papers, deadline for submitting papers and extended abstracts is May 15, submission link EMCC-VIII in 2024 will take place on Aug 16 and 17 at the University of Cambridge, Kin...
024
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 17/04/2024
Fingers crossed for AU’s team at the #EconometricGame 2024, with a case on Estimating Causal Effects of Educational Policies!
000
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 11/04/2024
New work on time series analysis of paleoclimate proxies. Incredibly cool time series, about 23,000 irregularly spaced observations covering 67 million years
arxiv.org
Continuous-time state-space methods for delta-O-18 and delta-C-13
Time series analysis of delta-O-18 and delta-C-13 measurements from benthic foraminifera for purposes of paleoclimatology is challenging. The time series reach back tens of millions of years, they...
140
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 29/02/2024
Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) - 8th annual conference takes place Aug 16 and 17 at King's College, University of Cambridge. Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August
021
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 05/12/2023
Global Carbon Budget 2023 Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023. Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows! essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/... 1/
12316
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 24/11/2023
"Prediction based upon a hypothesis, or model, is the ideal, but it should be noted that prediction can be based upon *recognition* of a regularity as well as upon *explanation* of a regularity." Peter Whittle, 1963
nature.com
DeepMind AI accurately forecasts weather — on a desktop computer
The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weather worldwide more precisely than other approaches. The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weat...
010
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
Is the Earth's Energy Imbalance of the scales? Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable? I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...
2169
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 14/11/2023
A question for the hive mind that is driving me crazy: I vaguely remember a quote (was it by Kahane?) that mathematical models are devices to organize thinking and help asking the right, sharp questions (as opposed to accurate descriptions of reality). Anybody knows the quote?
021
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 11/11/2023
I fear this might not be the most exciting account... so watch this. I still laughed even when we did the 30th take. youtu.be/CnITUQVEqLQ?...
56933
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 08/11/2023
Ten years ago, I published my first paper on statistical approaches in climate research, coming from economics and mathematics. It's been quite a journey since then, and I'm glad I made the decision to put my main focus on this
doi.org
Redirecting
110
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 03/11/2023
New working paper on arXiv: The airborne fraction of CO2 is commonly estimated in a way that makes an econometrician scratch their head and think “But why not the other way?” So we dug into it.   arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053
142
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 30/10/2023
Aarhus University is hiring a post-doc in the econometrics of energy, climate, and environmental economics. Deadline is Nov 24. Details found here: econjobmarket.org/positions/9995
043
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 18/10/2023
Advances in Econometrics is preparing a volume on Climate, Energy, and Green Transition. Call for papers is below, deadline is Nov 30. Spread the word tinyurl.com/py9n677y
020
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 15/10/2023
We reanalyzed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (higher GDP/capita yields lower CO2 emissions) with neural nets. For OECD countries, the EKC disappears when using consumption-based emissions, suggesting pollution havens. For Asia, there is a real EKC. doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
010
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD @ryankatzrosene.bsky.social · 11/10/2023
I wrote a thing about the ongoing 'debate' over how best to interpret/frame this year's extreme heat. www.cips-cepi.ca/2023/10/11/i...
011
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
There is a 90% chance that 2023 will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. [Oh, but it is only one year & not the trend. Well, the trend looks pretty ominous too!] Great analysis by @rarohde.bsky.social, do read: berkeleyearth.org/september-20...
Figure showing temperature rising, with a big jump in 2023
38047
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 12/10/2023
September 2023 Temperature Update 🔥 Warmest September & largest anomaly ever measured, shattering previous September record. Warming since August concentrated in polar regions. Near certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year. Likely 2023 exceeds 1.5 °C. berkeleyearth.org/september-20...
4204150
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 11/10/2023
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) averaged about 419 ppm in September 2023 10 years ago September averaged about 394 ppm Preliminary data: gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ 🧪⚒️
Red line graph time series of monthly carbon dioxide abundance from January 1959 through September 2023. There is a seasonal cycle and long-term increasing trend. Current levels of CO2 are at 419 ppm. This is the Keeling Curve graph. A line for CO2 10 years ago is also annotated.
06928
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
To limit global warming to '1.5°C with no or limited overshoot', the decline in global CO2 emissions relative to 2019 are: * 48% by 2030 * 80% by 2040 * 99% by 2050 It is 2023 & global CO2 emissions are still rising! ipcc.ch/report/sixth...
28654
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 09/10/2023
Economists are not involved enough with the IPCC www.nature.com/articles/s44...
203
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 05/10/2023
Website for "A multivariate dynamic statistical model of the Global Carbon Budget 1959-2020", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A sites.google.com/site/erichil...
001
Eric Hillebrand @erichillebrand.bsky.social · 02/10/2023
New paper: A statistical energy balance model that uses both observational data and climate model output to estimate the impact of man-made forcing on global temperatures. Scenario analyses are shown to be comparable with output from large-scale climate models. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
030