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Ensembleator

@ensembleator.bsky.social
1.6K followers 138 following 2K posts

Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.

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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 18h
Off to Brisbane AU for a couple of weeks to visit family. I’ll send pics of anything interesting. Weather resumes when I get back.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Ovnite rich front busy w/7 AM totals of 48.6 mm W Van, 42.5 Harbour, 13.6 Airport, 20.8 White Rock, 38.2 the Pitt, 72.2 mm UBC stn Maple Rdg, and a few more to come. A brisk W wind beach ltr AM and some clrg. AM cld then 🌞 Wed. Increasing cld Thu w/chc 🚿 Thu eve/ Fri AM. 🌞/warmer wknd.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Hermosillo MX, just N of TS Polo's landfall this AM, was apparently having some canine issues...MMHO 281025Z 36006G16KT 7SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC080 27/23 A2979 RMK 8/96/ FRQ LTGICCG OVHD RWY WATER POODLES
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Cool looking late season Dahlia in the West End #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Long fetch plume of mid-latitude moisture extending intact to W of the date line at 35N drops ESE today, Xing the LM tmrw AM. Rain dvlpg this eve tapering to 🚿s Tue PM. Breezy fm the SE ltr tdy thru Tue AM. Partial clrg PM, cool. Amts 80mm N shore to 30 far S. AM cld then 🌞 Wed. Cld Thu PM-Fri chc 🚿
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Some hi cld this AM from a deformation zone to the S but gnly 🌞tdy #YVR: a bit cool. Cold fnt NW tracks SE w/⬆️ cld tmrw. Rain dvlps eve and continues thru Tue w/brisk SE winds. Ttls range from 25-75 mm S to N Shore. AR-1 level plume. Partial clrg Wed and cool. 🌞/warmer Thu. Chc🚿Fri. Dry wknd.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Interesting cirrocumuloform pattern this evening #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Tropical storm warning for...New Mexico?
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Mixed skies w/areas of fog and low cloud about this AM #YVR. Bcmg mainly 🌞this AM, but cool. Clds ⬆️PM as an upr trough to the W tracks E and weakens. Areas fg Sun AM then 🌞. A sharp cold frnt tracks down the coast Mon-Tue. Rain/wind by Mon eve thru Tue. The fnt weakens/stalls just S on Wed w/chc 🚿
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Full moon this morning illuminating some clouds nearby
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
From the PM of Sept 3 until the AM of Sept 23, Van Harbour recorded zero precip w/highs within ~ 1.5C of 20 every day. That was a perfect late summer #YVR though it did produce 🔥issues in Srn VI. Now it's payback time w/ttl rain about 30 mm by this eve. Mon-Tue likely 40-80 mm. Avg Sep rain 71.4mm
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Unstbl S flow ovr #YVR this AM as a compact upr low lifts NE into WA. An upr trof, movg E, lies N of the low. 🚿thru erly eve due instability in the wake of the trof. W winds increase AM as the local gradient increases, peaking mid PM G 50-60 beach. AM cld then 🌞 wknd. Clds ⬆️ Mon. Stormy Mon eve/Tue
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Working cst tdy (prob the last time this year). Sfc low to the SW + supporting upr trof to the W lift ENE today, w/the low passing into WA Fri AM and the upr trof crossing thru LM Fri PM. Rain dvlps this PM tapering to shwrs Fri PM. Windy and cool Fri. Clds w/PM 🌞Sat. Mainly 🌞 milder Sun. Clds Mon
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🚿s taper off this AM #YVR as a weak cold fnt shifts inland. PM 🌞breaks. Vortmax 43N 155W phases w/a moist srn stream and intensifies while lifting ENE and over the LM Fri Eve. Clds then 🌧️ Thu. 🚿 Fri, breezy PM. Weak upr rdg Sat decays into a weak trof Sun. 🌞 Sat. Clds Sun. Ridgy Mon: vrbl sky. 🌧️Tue
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Cld this AM w/inflow ovnite. Vrbl skies + cooler tdy #YVR. Offshr upr trof lifts ovr SWBC Wed AM w/a 🚿then eyes on a low dvlpng to the SW on Thu, followed by a deep, progressive upr trof Fri. Chc 🚿Wed-Fri. Breezy Fri eve Sat AM. Clrg Sat AM. Sun looks nice. Nxt wk wetter undr a cooler unstbl flow
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Lovey send off to summer, courtesy of autumn #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Cldy this AM w/a combo of low cld/fg + hi cld from a weak upr cold fnt. Bcmg mainly 🌞late AM #YVR. Circulation becomes more cyclonic/unstbl/cooler thru the wk as a broad upr low over thr Gulf of AK sends impulses twd the cst. Mainly cldy/chc 🚿Tue -Sat AM. Windy Fri. Sat PM some 🌞. Chc 🚿Sun-Tue 29th
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Plumes of cirrus and cirrocumulus overhead this evening #YVR as weak upper disturbances drift past in a SW flow aloft. Bonus moon.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Areas of fog inland this AM. AQ not the best as the LM remains under a stagnant rdg. Bcmg mainly 🌞 tdy #YVR. T 19C beach, 24 inland. Same Mon. More cld chc lgt 🚿Tue as an upr trof approaches fm the W. Increased cld /cooler + chc lgt🚿 Wed-Fri as the LM falls undr the circulation of the trof. Rain Fri
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Some hi cld tdy #YVR as an upr trof to the N tracks inland. T nr avg. Areas AM low cld then mainly🌞Sun-Mon undr a brisk SW flow aloft. Chc 🚿 Tue-Sat AM w/a series of upr trofs bring cooler and unsettled conditions to SWBC and end our extension of summer. Not too wet tho. ENS mean 8 mm Tue-Sat
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Nice one tonight #YVR
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Reposted by Ensembleator
Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The atmosphere just hit a new water-vapour record: 27.35 kg of water vapour per m2 in August 2026, ~20 trillion litres more water than the previous record. Warmer air holds ~7% more moisture per °C. More water vapour means more energy to fuel extreme weather. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
El Niño and global heating pushes water vapour in Earth’s atmosphere to record levels in August
Global heating contributes to record, with a warmer atmosphere able to hold more water, scientists say
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Areas of fog/low cld dvlpg now over the LM under a stg inversion and clr skies aloft. #YVR undr a NW flow, E of an ofshr rdg. Bcmg 🌞tdy. 20C beach 25 inland. Rdg flattens Sat w/some hi cld. Mainly 🌞Sun-Mon w/AM fog. Chc 🚿 Tue-Fri w/a series of upr trofs passing ovhd in a brisk SW flow (stgest Fri).
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Areas of cld/ptchy fog inland this AM #YVR. Light outflow w/weak hi P inland and a thermal trof alg the W cst of VI. Mainly 🌞/warm tdy #YVR w/inland hi 25C, 20 beach. Upr rdg responsible shifts S but stays in charge Fri. Upr trof to the N brings cld Sat. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun/Mon. Chc 🚿 Tue. Cool/cld Wed
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Stg upr rdg buldg in from the N. Outflow this am and clr skies #YVR. Mainly🌞, seasonably mild Wed-Fri. AM fog in sheltered areas. A few clds Sat as an upr trof to the N slides inland. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun. Vrbl sky Mon. Chc lgt 🚿Tue+Wed. Last wk of Sept looking wetter
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My daughter’s shot of the moon and Venus sharing a moment the other evening over Brisbane
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Upr low over the E Vly shifting inland. Clds - slt chc 🚿- then clrg #YVR w/a W wind beach this PM. Stg upr rdg builds in from the NW for mainly 🌞 skies Wed-Fri. AM fog in sheltered areas. A few clds Sat as an upr trof to the N slides inland. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun. Vrbl sky Mon. No 🌧️til nxt wk
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
On Cariboo tdy. Upper trof ovr Haida Gwaii digging SE with #YVR undr a cool marine airmass. Clds/chc 🚿overnight - Tue AM then PM clrg as the trof drops S and high P builds in. AM cld then sun Wed/Thu and warmer. Dry Fri-wknd. Patchy AM fog.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Vrbl☁️ tdy #YVR as an upr low ovr S WA tracks E. Inflow strengthens this PM. Wind convergence + upslope flow produces a few light 🚿ovnite Vly, extndg to the N Shore Mon AM then drying out. Mainly cldy and cool Mon. A vortmax dvlpg ovr the N cst Mon eve is ovhd Tue AM. A few 🚿s Tue AM. Clrg PM. 🌞Wed
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
After Tue's 🚿 chances, #YVR looking at a dry/warm spell thru the end of next wknd: perhaps longer. I guess this would be considered good harvest/haying weather in the ALR. However, climate models sustain a serious precip deficit thru month's end and into Oct under a persistent, warm, W flow.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Clds tdy as an upr low off WA tracks E. #YVR is just getting grazed by a connected upr trough just to the S. Maybe the odd bit of virga. Skies clr Sun AM as an upr rdg builds in. Breezy PMs beach. Increasing cld Mon w/a chc 🚿s Tue AM as an inside slider vortmax carves thru the rdg to the N of the LM
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It's cloud appreciation day: earthsky.org/earth/intern...
earthsky.org
International Cloud Appreciation Day is September 11
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Working Cariboo tdy. Upr low offshore slowly tracs S to NW OR by Sat eve. Flow over #YVR backs with it, from SW tdy to NE by Sun AM as the low exits inland. Vrbl skies w/a chc light 🚿, most likely Alpine, thru Sat then clrg Sun. Mix 🌞/cld Mon as a vortmax tracks inland to the N. Gusty beach Sat PM.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Windy beaches as a vestigial cold fnt drops S thru #YVR this AM. Low chc sprinkle N shore. Vortmax 51N 134W drops ESE in the wake of the fnt: maintains vrbl skies tdy. Dvlpg upr low ovr the W Yukon drops S to off VI Fri PM. Unstbl air gets pumped into the LM w/clds+ a few 🚿Fri-Sun AM. Vrbl sky PM
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Is that a bird or a plane?
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Reposted by Ensembleator
Dave Sills 🍁🌪️🎶⚓☮️ @davesills.ca · 09/09/2026
The new Canada's Changing Climate Report 2026 is a sobering read. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, the warming / impacts are locked in for centuries. I was a lead author for Ch 8 on extremes - lots of uncertainty. Please at least read the summary: www.canada.ca/content/dam/...
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Clds increase tdy #YVR as a stg cold fnt over N BC approaches. It weakens at lower lvls but maintains integrity aloft. So little precip w/this but winds increase erly Thu AM NW 30-40 G 60-70 beaches. Mix sun/cld. Clds/🚿s Fri/Sat. Moisture from ex Marie 32N 127W + weakening TS Lowell 28.7N 161.2W
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
A snapshot of SST anomalies 30 years ago on Labour day vs Monday of this year. One day does not trend make, but we've got 30 years of steady oceanic heating in the record.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
#YVR undr a NW flow aloft E of an offshr upr rdg. The airmass is stbl with some low cloud this AM. Bcmg mainly 🌞 ltr AM and warmer. Mainly cldy/dry Wed as the rdg flattens and an upr trof approaches fm the NW. Chc 🚿 Thu PM as the trof axis sweeps thru SWBC. WIndy Thu. Clds chc 🚿Fri/Sat. Dry Sunday
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Virga from developing cumulus in an unstable atmosphere this morning as an upper low develops overhead #YVR. It’s shifting south pretty quickly.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A developing upper trof overhead this AM #YVR with a bit of early AM ⚡around. Instability drops off next few H and the remainder of the day features vrbl skies with a cool down. Erly AM cld Tue then mainly sunny, breezy and milder to the E of a stg rdg. Warm/breezy Wed. Clds/wind/cooler/chc 🚿Thu
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The airmass remains slightly unstable w/an upr trof still ovhd today. 🌞 then clds PM #YVR w/some buildups over the Alpine/eastern Valley, + a risk of ⚡there that continues into the early eve. Breezy beach. Marine inflow dvlps ovnite. AM drizzle then cooler/clds tmrw. AM cld then 🌞Tue, warmer.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Distant cumulonimbus penetrating the cirrus layer above #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
An upr low remains parked over OR/WA. It's weakly unstable today #YVR with 🚿s and a risk of 🌩️Alpine and eastern Valley. City showers are possible close to the N Shore but less likely further S. Breezy NW wind beach PM. Vrbl skies Sun. 🚿s Mon AM due a trailing vortmax w/PM clrg. Tue mainly 🌞/warmer
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
An upr low over the US Pac NW remains in place through Sunday AM, circulating moisture/clds into SWBC. Cldy w/ocnl 🚿 tdy/Sat. The upr low weakens Sun w/a slight uptick in temperatures. Vrbl skies. It shifts well to the east on Mon but an upr trof approaches fm the NW. Clds/chc PM 🚿#YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Working KFC. Forecast not changed much from ydy. Upr low off the PacNW cst stalls there for a few days w/ #YVR under a moist, coolish, weakly unstable cyclonic flow. Chc 🚿s risk⚡Alpine/valley this PM. Cloudy mornings, mix sun/cld PMs and chc a 🚿or two Fri-Sun. More clearing, warmer Mon.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
A fairly robust low offshore this AM w/a cold fnt trailing to its S. Showery/windy tdy. Low drops into Srn WA tmrw AM then stalls before weakening in place thru the wknd and is replaced by a "dirty" ridge on Mon. 🚿s Thu w/lighter winds. A few 🚿s mainly cldy Fri-Sat. Vrbl sky chc 🚿 Sun, Mon. Cool.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Cool undular stratocumulus at the top of the marine inversion this morning #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Clds increase tdy #YVR as an upr low 56N 141W digs SE and begins to dominate flow, lifting the upr low 41N 131W to the NE & shunting instability ovhd this PM. A frontal zone to the NW pivots N-S as it shifts into SWBC tmrw, with a very moist Sly flow aloft. 🚿 this eve-Wed. Windy Wed. A few 🚿Thu/Fri
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
A summery day #YVR with filtered sun and slightly above avg temps. Upr low 47N 136W phases w/dvlpg upr low 62N 151W and the combined trof shifts E , shifting flow aloft to Sly and increasing instability Tue w/chc 🚿/⚡alpine. 🚿 chc 🌩️ Wed-Fri as the upr low drops into WA and stalls. Unsettled wknd
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