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Ensembleator

@ensembleator.bsky.social
1.6K followers 138 following 2K posts

Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.

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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 17h
Local, tiny, surprised looking spider, Sunshine Coast QLD AU
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Interesting limestone textured moth
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Striking bush turkey in a beach barrier at Marochydore QLD
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
October is jacaranda month in Queensland AU
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
An ibis unfortunately beside a bin (ibis are called “bin chickens” in Australia). It’s a 14 hr flight to a somewhat different world. I’ll send pics during the 2 weeks we’re away
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Off to Brisbane AU for a couple of weeks to visit family. I’ll send pics of anything interesting. Weather resumes when I get back.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There's probably enough outflow to clear out the morning fog that is likely to develop on the wknd but we'll see. Or you will. I'll be away.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Ovnite rich front busy w/7 AM totals of 48.6 mm W Van, 42.5 Harbour, 13.6 Airport, 20.8 White Rock, 38.2 the Pitt, 72.2 mm UBC stn Maple Rdg, and a few more to come. A brisk W wind beach ltr AM and some clrg. AM cld then 🌞 Wed. Increasing cld Thu w/chc 🚿 Thu eve/ Fri AM. 🌞/warmer wknd.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Hermosillo MX, just N of TS Polo's landfall this AM, was apparently having some canine issues...MMHO 281025Z 36006G16KT 7SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC080 27/23 A2979 RMK 8/96/ FRQ LTGICCG OVHD RWY WATER POODLES
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Cool looking late season Dahlia in the West End #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Long fetch plume of mid-latitude moisture extending intact to W of the date line at 35N drops ESE today, Xing the LM tmrw AM. Rain dvlpg this eve tapering to 🚿s Tue PM. Breezy fm the SE ltr tdy thru Tue AM. Partial clrg PM, cool. Amts 80mm N shore to 30 far S. AM cld then 🌞 Wed. Cld Thu PM-Fri chc 🚿
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
At 850mb, yes. But at the surface it could be a fog bowl.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Tout à fait!
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Some hi cld this AM from a deformation zone to the S but gnly 🌞tdy #YVR: a bit cool. Cold fnt NW tracks SE w/⬆️ cld tmrw. Rain dvlps eve and continues thru Tue w/brisk SE winds. Ttls range from 25-75 mm S to N Shore. AR-1 level plume. Partial clrg Wed and cool. 🌞/warmer Thu. Chc🚿Fri. Dry wknd.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Interesting cirrocumuloform pattern this evening #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Tropical storm warning for...New Mexico?
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Mixed skies w/areas of fog and low cloud about this AM #YVR. Bcmg mainly 🌞this AM, but cool. Clds ⬆️PM as an upr trough to the W tracks E and weakens. Areas fg Sun AM then 🌞. A sharp cold frnt tracks down the coast Mon-Tue. Rain/wind by Mon eve thru Tue. The fnt weakens/stalls just S on Wed w/chc 🚿
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Full moon this morning illuminating some clouds nearby
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
From the PM of Sept 3 until the AM of Sept 23, Van Harbour recorded zero precip w/highs within ~ 1.5C of 20 every day. That was a perfect late summer #YVR though it did produce 🔥issues in Srn VI. Now it's payback time w/ttl rain about 30 mm by this eve. Mon-Tue likely 40-80 mm. Avg Sep rain 71.4mm
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Unstbl S flow ovr #YVR this AM as a compact upr low lifts NE into WA. An upr trof, movg E, lies N of the low. 🚿thru erly eve due instability in the wake of the trof. W winds increase AM as the local gradient increases, peaking mid PM G 50-60 beach. AM cld then 🌞 wknd. Clds ⬆️ Mon. Stormy Mon eve/Tue
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Working cst tdy (prob the last time this year). Sfc low to the SW + supporting upr trof to the W lift ENE today, w/the low passing into WA Fri AM and the upr trof crossing thru LM Fri PM. Rain dvlps this PM tapering to shwrs Fri PM. Windy and cool Fri. Clds w/PM 🌞Sat. Mainly 🌞 milder Sun. Clds Mon
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🚿s taper off this AM #YVR as a weak cold fnt shifts inland. PM 🌞breaks. Vortmax 43N 155W phases w/a moist srn stream and intensifies while lifting ENE and over the LM Fri Eve. Clds then 🌧️ Thu. 🚿 Fri, breezy PM. Weak upr rdg Sat decays into a weak trof Sun. 🌞 Sat. Clds Sun. Ridgy Mon: vrbl sky. 🌧️Tue
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Cld this AM w/inflow ovnite. Vrbl skies + cooler tdy #YVR. Offshr upr trof lifts ovr SWBC Wed AM w/a 🚿then eyes on a low dvlpng to the SW on Thu, followed by a deep, progressive upr trof Fri. Chc 🚿Wed-Fri. Breezy Fri eve Sat AM. Clrg Sat AM. Sun looks nice. Nxt wk wetter undr a cooler unstbl flow
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Lovey send off to summer, courtesy of autumn #YVR
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Cldy this AM w/a combo of low cld/fg + hi cld from a weak upr cold fnt. Bcmg mainly 🌞late AM #YVR. Circulation becomes more cyclonic/unstbl/cooler thru the wk as a broad upr low over thr Gulf of AK sends impulses twd the cst. Mainly cldy/chc 🚿Tue -Sat AM. Windy Fri. Sat PM some 🌞. Chc 🚿Sun-Tue 29th
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Prince Rupert is a different story altogether. Much wetter this week. Ensemble mean rain near 100 mm now thru the morning of Tuesday Sept 29.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Plumes of cirrus and cirrocumulus overhead this evening #YVR as weak upper disturbances drift past in a SW flow aloft. Bonus moon.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I was worried and then I realized: 0.3 degrees F. That's around 1C a week up north. Whew.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Low quality stuff around 2 km ASL
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
❄️🍁
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Lol. No chance. It is getting a little wetter though. Ensemble mean total rain forecast Tuesday Sept 22 thru Mon Sept 28 is 22 mm.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Areas of fog inland this AM. AQ not the best as the LM remains under a stagnant rdg. Bcmg mainly 🌞 tdy #YVR. T 19C beach, 24 inland. Same Mon. More cld chc lgt 🚿Tue as an upr trof approaches fm the W. Increased cld /cooler + chc lgt🚿 Wed-Fri as the LM falls undr the circulation of the trof. Rain Fri
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Some hi cld tdy #YVR as an upr trof to the N tracks inland. T nr avg. Areas AM low cld then mainly🌞Sun-Mon undr a brisk SW flow aloft. Chc 🚿 Tue-Sat AM w/a series of upr trofs bring cooler and unsettled conditions to SWBC and end our extension of summer. Not too wet tho. ENS mean 8 mm Tue-Sat
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Nice one tonight #YVR
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Reposted by Ensembleator
Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The atmosphere just hit a new water-vapour record: 27.35 kg of water vapour per m2 in August 2026, ~20 trillion litres more water than the previous record. Warmer air holds ~7% more moisture per °C. More water vapour means more energy to fuel extreme weather. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
El Niño and global heating pushes water vapour in Earth’s atmosphere to record levels in August
Global heating contributes to record, with a warmer atmosphere able to hold more water, scientists say
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Areas of fog/low cld dvlpg now over the LM under a stg inversion and clr skies aloft. #YVR undr a NW flow, E of an ofshr rdg. Bcmg 🌞tdy. 20C beach 25 inland. Rdg flattens Sat w/some hi cld. Mainly 🌞Sun-Mon w/AM fog. Chc 🚿 Tue-Fri w/a series of upr trofs passing ovhd in a brisk SW flow (stgest Fri).
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Areas of cld/ptchy fog inland this AM #YVR. Light outflow w/weak hi P inland and a thermal trof alg the W cst of VI. Mainly 🌞/warm tdy #YVR w/inland hi 25C, 20 beach. Upr rdg responsible shifts S but stays in charge Fri. Upr trof to the N brings cld Sat. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun/Mon. Chc 🚿 Tue. Cool/cld Wed
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I read it like English but it takes practice. Nice work!
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We're domed!
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Stg upr rdg buldg in from the N. Outflow this am and clr skies #YVR. Mainly🌞, seasonably mild Wed-Fri. AM fog in sheltered areas. A few clds Sat as an upr trof to the N slides inland. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun. Vrbl sky Mon. Chc lgt 🚿Tue+Wed. Last wk of Sept looking wetter
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My daughter’s shot of the moon and Venus sharing a moment the other evening over Brisbane
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Upr low over the E Vly shifting inland. Clds - slt chc 🚿- then clrg #YVR w/a W wind beach this PM. Stg upr rdg builds in from the NW for mainly 🌞 skies Wed-Fri. AM fog in sheltered areas. A few clds Sat as an upr trof to the N slides inland. AM fog/PM 🌞 Sun. Vrbl sky Mon. No 🌧️til nxt wk
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
On Cariboo tdy. Upper trof ovr Haida Gwaii digging SE with #YVR undr a cool marine airmass. Clds/chc 🚿overnight - Tue AM then PM clrg as the trof drops S and high P builds in. AM cld then sun Wed/Thu and warmer. Dry Fri-wknd. Patchy AM fog.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
I remember media calling the office and me desperately trying to stay awake as they read me tracts of the almanac for my comments. I'll never get that time back.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Vrbl☁️ tdy #YVR as an upr low ovr S WA tracks E. Inflow strengthens this PM. Wind convergence + upslope flow produces a few light 🚿ovnite Vly, extndg to the N Shore Mon AM then drying out. Mainly cldy and cool Mon. A vortmax dvlpg ovr the N cst Mon eve is ovhd Tue AM. A few 🚿s Tue AM. Clrg PM. 🌞Wed
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
After Tue's 🚿 chances, #YVR looking at a dry/warm spell thru the end of next wknd: perhaps longer. I guess this would be considered good harvest/haying weather in the ALR. However, climate models sustain a serious precip deficit thru month's end and into Oct under a persistent, warm, W flow.
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Clds tdy as an upr low off WA tracks E. #YVR is just getting grazed by a connected upr trough just to the S. Maybe the odd bit of virga. Skies clr Sun AM as an upr rdg builds in. Breezy PMs beach. Increasing cld Mon w/a chc 🚿s Tue AM as an inside slider vortmax carves thru the rdg to the N of the LM
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It's cloud appreciation day: earthsky.org/earth/intern...
earthsky.org
International Cloud Appreciation Day is September 11
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get :)
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Ensembleator @ensembleator.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Working Cariboo tdy. Upr low offshore slowly tracs S to NW OR by Sat eve. Flow over #YVR backs with it, from SW tdy to NE by Sun AM as the low exits inland. Vrbl skies w/a chc light 🚿, most likely Alpine, thru Sat then clrg Sun. Mix 🌞/cld Mon as a vortmax tracks inland to the N. Gusty beach Sat PM.
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