iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Have an idea for something along those lines soon...

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

94% of Britain's MPs are on X - I've made a website so you can explore who they follow on there. 🔍Search for any username and see which MPs follow them. 🏅There's also a leaderboard so you can see who has the ear of Westminster Link here: site.mpfollowers.workers.dev

site.mpfollowers.workers.dev

Who Do MPs Follow?

Find out how many UK Members of Parliament follow any Twitter account.

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Yeh it was kind of over it- Fieldwork was 25th Feb - 3rd March

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Reposted by Ed Hodgson

This is important. Reform keep taking positions that are only supported by the 25% of the electorate they already have and in doing so are negatively polarising everyone else against them.

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Tracking our *negative* voting intention (who would Britons vote AGAINST): ➡️ Ref 38% (+9) 🌹Lab 34% (-4) 🌳 Con 7% (-1) 🌏 Green 7% (+4) 🐦‍ LD 3% (-) changes w/ Nov 2025 As Reform has plateaued in the polls, the number of people saying they would also vote *against* Reform has grown

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Reposted by Ed Hodgson

Dan Wilson Craw @danwilsoncraw.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Interesting chart from @edhodgsoned.bsky.social @moreincommonuk.bsky.social - Labour struggling with renters. May change once Renters Rights Act comes in and if slowdown in rents (reported on BBC today) continues.

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Finally, it's rare to see a wordcloud as vivid as this: the top thing people feel when shown these pictures of the enclosure is SAD 🐧

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

When shown images of the enclosure, the number of "don't know"s falls further, and people are much more likely to say it's unacceptable

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

🐧 The public have spoken on the penguins kept in a windowless basement in London Aquarium: 40% think it's unacceptable and just 19% think it's acceptable

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Interesting how much Bluesky usage has fallen - it is now about half of what it was in November 2024 - would be intrigued to know people's theories about why that is

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Fascinated by this way of measuring a Prime Minister's popularity... By the same measure, here's the number of babies given the first name of our PMs one year into office: Keir: 0 Rishi: 37 Liz: 24 Boris: 43 Theresa: 20 David: 1,163 Gordon: 14 Tony: 135 Source: ONS

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The report - including segment names - is all our own. The aim of the segmentation is to be as descriptive as possible so that others may use it to help better understand society -as such we would not put normative words in those titles.

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Nws! our tables page can be a bit of a maze sometimes

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Dissenting Disruptors, Rooted Patriots and Traditional Conservatives all score highly on authority measures from Stenner et al. The thing that distinguishes DDs is high need for chaos (Arceneaux et al. 2023 etc.) and desire to tear existing institutions down - hence 'disruptors'.

Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Wrt to randomising response positions - we do that on any question where it makes sense to do so. But for ordinal scales we tend not to randomise as we want people to see the scale in order.

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Yeh we debated how we should phrase this for a while - was reassured by the responses though: just one or two percent of voters for each party said they would vote against their own party so I do think it worked

Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

This has interesting implications for how people might vote tactically in a General Election - suggests to me that a 'stop Reform' strategy from Labour could only go so far: Tory voters in particular are much more anti-Labour than they are anti-Reform for example

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Every week we ask who Britons would vote for - this week we asked who they'd vote *against* Here's what a negative voting intention looks like: 🌹Lab 23% ➡️ Ref: 22% 🌳 Con: 10% 🌏 Green: 4% 🐦‍ LD: 4%

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To build trust in the climate transition, energy firms & policymakers must show they’re acting in the interests of consumers—yes, by lowering bills, but also by showing how climate policies are already cutting emissions, not just boosting shareholder profits.

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(In fact, if you ask people where their high bills come from, most say the greed of energy company bosses, just 15% say net zero policies)

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This is not a sign of backlash against climate policies generally, but comes from a growing sense that energy companies don't act in the public's interest or have their customers at heart - regardless of whether their energy comes from renewables or fossil fuels

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For example, just as a majority suspect that oil companies might be funding climate denial to protect their profits, a majority now also think it's possible that renewable policies are pushing climate policies to support their bottom-line too

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More broadly, this lack of awareness of climate progress reinforces the sense that energy companies aren't acting in the public's interest - and creates fertile ground for conspiracy thinking about energy companies...

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This creates big problems for those making the case for the energy transition, because would be much easier to convince sceptical voters about the opportunity of building on successes, than it would be to convince them we need to entirely build to net zero from scratch

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Something really striking about the energy transition in the UK is that, despite having halved our emissions since 1990, very few people are aware of this success - only a quarter of the public think we've made a meaningful difference to cutting our emissions

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Great blog from Rory about where AI rhetoric and policy might reinforce a sense that the government isn't focusing on the issues that people care about

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this was from an N = 13,000 poll! So pretty good subsamples at each level

Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Really strong connection between life satisfaction and voting intention - people with low life satisfaction are much more likely to take a risk on a smaller or newer party, Labour is only comfortably ahead on people who give their life satisfaction at 10/10

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Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 08/06/2025

Agree - and also a good chunk of Green voters are not the hyper-engaged / ideological stereotype. Many are politically disengaged and just have a strong preference against the Tories and Lab. The sort who vote green as a "none of the above" option rather than strong support for green policies.

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and all evidence points to the fact that, were an election held today at least, these non-voter to Reform switchers are real group, are likely to vote, and ought to be taken seriously

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So this group are definitely habitual voters rather than reliable voters (for example 47% of them say they tend not to vote in Local Elections, compared to just 7% of all other Reform voters), but that doesn't mean they never vote...

The other factor that makes us more confident that these likely Reform voters would turn out in an election is that many of them have done so before - in 2019 37% of Reform's 2024 nonvoters also did not vote, but 45% of them say they voted for Boris Johnson's Conservatives.

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Similarly, recent performance of populist-right parties have been driven by attracting non habitual voters - see e.g. the AfD in Germany who won 2 million votes from nonvoters this year, or Trump who did particularly well with bringing non-voters to the ballot box.

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Still, you can't necessarily take people’s word for it when they say they are likely to vote. But Reform's local election performance is best explained by habitual nonvoters turning out in large numbers - suggesting that these high likelihood to vote scores might be real.

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Therefore, it’s important to remember that when we talk about “Did not vote to Reform switchers” we are only talking about those who say they are *very* likely to vote (9/10 or 10/10. And it is this group that Reform has been able to capitalise on so effectively.

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It's reasonable to doubt whether those who didn’t vote in 2024 will turn out in 2029 - In our polling we ask everyone to rate their likelihood of voting out of ten, and include people if they set their likelihood at 8+, but increase this threshold to 9+ for 2024 nonvoters.

2024 nonvoters are having a big impact on voting intention polls at the moment - if we remove all of them from our headline voting intention, Reform's vote share falls from 31% to 26%, significantly shrinking their lead over Labour

The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵

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We put lots of checks in to stop that happening! Examples ranging from monitoring IP addresses, using "honeypot" questions which only a bot would see, evaluating open ended qs, monitoring mouse movements etc. Bots always get better, so we continually invest to insure they can't get into our polls

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Obviously the big exception to that is if Starmer / Labour can run a convincing "Stop Reform" campaign in 2029, and if people who wouldn't normally vote Labour are opposed to Reform enough that they would lend Labour their vote. All that is very uncertain.

And our voting intention this week has Reform on a 9pt lead over Labour, despite Farage's negative approval rating. It doesn't matter that 47% of the country disapprove of Farage, when Reform can win if everyone in the 29% who approve of him vote for them bsky.app/profile/edho...

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I think this is really interesting and revealing polling, but also worth remembering that in a fragmented/multiparty system these head-to-heads matter less to national vote patterns - it makes no difference if a Green voter prefers Badenoch to Farage if they won't vote for either anyway

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Yeh it adds a lot of uncertainty to the polling for sure! Reform's performance at the locals suggests they might be better than previous parties turning out habitual non-voters, but a lot of that remains to be seen

And finally this Sankey shows where all these changes are coming from - the Conservatives losing a big chunk of their votes to Reform, Labour losing votes in all directions, and Reform winning over a significant number of 2024 non-voters

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