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Georgi Engelbrecht

@duriandiaries.bsky.social
1.2K followers 1.4K following 105 posts

Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.

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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The Manila Times @themanilatimes.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
MANILA, Philippines — The Senate Impeachment Court voted to lower the threshold required to convict an impeachable officer, Presiding Officer Francis Escudero said Wednesday. Read more: tmt.ph/2431010
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
podcasts.apple.com
EP154: Bangsamoro’s Polls with Georgi Engelbrecht
Podcast Episode · Straight Talk Southeast Asia · September 22 · 38m
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 11/09/2026
NEW Q&A | An Historic Poll Puts Peace to the Test in the Philippines Residents of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region will elect regional parliamentary representatives. @duriandiaries.bsky.social explains the importance of this step in the peace process between the national government and ex-rebels.
crisisgroup.org
An Historic Poll Puts Peace to the Test in the Philippines | International Crisis Group
In mid-September, residents of the Bangsamoro in the southern Philippines will elect regional parliamentary representatives. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht explains the importance...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Policing the Bangsamoro: Peace in the Southern Philippines | International Crisis Group
Security continues to be a concern in the autonomous region of Bangsamoro in the southern Philippines. Law enforcement reforms and better coordination between the military and the police – as well as ...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The China-Global South Project @chinagsproject.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The Indonesia-U.S. trade deal could squeeze Chinese firms, align Jakarta with U.S. export controls and narrow its economic policy options—potentially prompting a measured response from Beijing. tinyurl.com/2f5vv5sn
chinaglobalsouth.com
Beijing’s Restraint on Indonesia-U.S. Trade Deal Shows What Is Truly at Stake
By Luna Ge Lai and Maria Monica Wihardja The Indonesia-U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) was signed on 19 February 2026 and contains subtle provisions that could be interpreted as indirectly…
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Some thoughts on the appointment of General Nafarrete as Philippine military chief. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
Between highlands and the high sea: What awaits the next Philippine military chief?
Antonio Nafarrete inherits a Philippine military still learning to look outward – and Beijing isn’t making it easy.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
Why the West Papua rebels are targeting the Catholic Church
The killing of an American pilot in Papua was not random – the rebels fear the Catholic Church is winning the population.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Our new commentary looks at the intersection of the climate crisis and conflict in the Philippine archipelago: www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Islands in the Storm: Climate Change and Conflict in the Philippines | International Crisis Group
Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns pose a particular threat to the Philippine archipelago. Absent adaptation measures, climate change could exacerbate the country’s long-running interna...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Fore more details and background, check out our report: www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Peace in the Philippines: The Bangsamoro’s Moment of Truth | International Crisis Group
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, the newly autonomous Muslim-majority region in the southern Philippines, has run into stumbling blocks, including repeated postponements of regional parliamentary ...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
With less than 3 years left, the Marcos admin must act fast to steady the Bangsamoro peace process. For now, the odds favour an uneasy, imperfect peace over a return to war. But absent urgent action, the tenuous calm in the Bangsamoro risks giving way to renewed instability.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
To prevent further setbacks, the two parties should deepen dialogue and reach consensus on how to finish disarming former rebels and rehabilitating their communities, while the ex-rebel movement should strive to bridge internal differences so as to ward off the threat of a split.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Important provisions of the 2014 accord related to disarmament and socio-economic development remain unfulfilled, straining relations with Manila. Moreover, following the change in the transitional authority’s leadership, the MILF has been struggling to maintain cohesion.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
While peace in the region has largely held, the process faces major challenges. At the helm of a transitional administration since 2019, the former MILF insurgents delivered modest peace dividends, but they continue to grapple with political instability and flare-ups of violence.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
After being delayed several times, parliamentary polls may finally take place in the newly created Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2026. The polls will complete the political track foreseen by the agreement signed in 2014 by the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage. Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026. It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-...
lareviewofbooks.org
The Ecological Uncanny: On the “Southern Reach” Trilogy | Los Angeles Review of Books
How might the Weird respond to the anxieties of the 21st century? Jeff VanderMeer's hallucinatory "Southern Reach" trilogy provides one possible answer.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 06/01/2026
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea... "We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
opinion.inquirer.net
A reality by March 2026? (2)
COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 05/01/2026
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.” www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
crisisgroup.org
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 03/01/2026
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.” @philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz
Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Naval News @navalnews.com · 19/12/2025
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩 By @fmalufti.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
PH military press statement interestingly said they only monitored 50 local fighters.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The Lowy Institute @lowyinstitute.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpret…
lowyinstitute.org
Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia
A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Maria Carmen (Ica) Fernandez @icafernandez.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 13/11/2025
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
russell h @stencilarchive.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
thediplomat.com/2025/11/thro...
thediplomat.com
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
Domestic challenges threaten to derail the military’s efforts to upgrade its capabilities and reorient itself toward new strategic priorities.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u... "While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
news.usni.org
U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News
This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 09/10/2025
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia. Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president. Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 14/10/2025
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
reuters.com
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election. The polls, however, have been postponed. I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist: open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
open.spotify.com
Spotify – Web Player
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
youtube.com
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC Registration: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
crisisgroup.org
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 14/08/2025
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social. Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Mi Ra SOUL @flipcritic.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
10. And stay tuned for more deeply researched reports and analysis in our series: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Asia’s Military Modernisation: A Special Series | International Crisis Group
The rapidly changing global security environment is raising concerns in Asia, prompting increased military spending and policy shifts from a number of countries in the region. This series explores how...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
8. Lastly, deterrence needs to be complemented by diplomacy too. Crisis management channels with Beijing remain important to navigate the unruly waves.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation. Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
5. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more distrust and even armed conflict. The recent events near the Scarborough Shoal are a case in point. But also regionally, the Indo-Pacific security architecture is in flux: www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
crisisgroup.org
Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group
The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
4. The modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
3. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington. It tries to balance the “hardware” of new equipment with the “software” of thinking beyond jungle warfare/counterterrorism towards coastal defence.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
2. The shift is still a work in progress. But under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to change gear from counterinsurgency to territorial and external defence.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2025
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
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