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Georgi Engelbrecht

@duriandiaries.bsky.social
1.2K followers 1.4K following 105 posts

Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.

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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The Manila Times @themanilatimes.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
MANILA, Philippines — The Senate Impeachment Court voted to lower the threshold required to convict an impeachable officer, Presiding Officer Francis Escudero said Wednesday. Read more: tmt.ph/2431010
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
podcasts.apple.com
EP154: Bangsamoro’s Polls with Georgi Engelbrecht
Podcast Episode · Straight Talk Southeast Asia · September 22 · 38m
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 11/09/2026
NEW Q&A | An Historic Poll Puts Peace to the Test in the Philippines Residents of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region will elect regional parliamentary representatives. @duriandiaries.bsky.social explains the importance of this step in the peace process between the national government and ex-rebels.
crisisgroup.org
An Historic Poll Puts Peace to the Test in the Philippines | International Crisis Group
In mid-September, residents of the Bangsamoro in the southern Philippines will elect regional parliamentary representatives. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht explains the importance...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Policing the Bangsamoro: Peace in the Southern Philippines | International Crisis Group
Security continues to be a concern in the autonomous region of Bangsamoro in the southern Philippines. Law enforcement reforms and better coordination between the military and the police – as well as ...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The China-Global South Project @chinagsproject.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The Indonesia-U.S. trade deal could squeeze Chinese firms, align Jakarta with U.S. export controls and narrow its economic policy options—potentially prompting a measured response from Beijing. tinyurl.com/2f5vv5sn
chinaglobalsouth.com
Beijing’s Restraint on Indonesia-U.S. Trade Deal Shows What Is Truly at Stake
By Luna Ge Lai and Maria Monica Wihardja The Indonesia-U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) was signed on 19 February 2026 and contains subtle provisions that could be interpreted as indirectly…
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Some thoughts on the appointment of General Nafarrete as Philippine military chief. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
Between highlands and the high sea: What awaits the next Philippine military chief?
Antonio Nafarrete inherits a Philippine military still learning to look outward – and Beijing isn’t making it easy.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
Why the West Papua rebels are targeting the Catholic Church
The killing of an American pilot in Papua was not random – the rebels fear the Catholic Church is winning the population.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Our new commentary looks at the intersection of the climate crisis and conflict in the Philippine archipelago: www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Islands in the Storm: Climate Change and Conflict in the Philippines | International Crisis Group
Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns pose a particular threat to the Philippine archipelago. Absent adaptation measures, climate change could exacerbate the country’s long-running interna...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage. Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026. It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-...
lareviewofbooks.org
The Ecological Uncanny: On the “Southern Reach” Trilogy | Los Angeles Review of Books
How might the Weird respond to the anxieties of the 21st century? Jeff VanderMeer's hallucinatory "Southern Reach" trilogy provides one possible answer.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 06/01/2026
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea... "We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
opinion.inquirer.net
A reality by March 2026? (2)
COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 05/01/2026
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.” www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
crisisgroup.org
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 03/01/2026
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.” @philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz
Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Naval News @navalnews.com · 19/12/2025
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩 By @fmalufti.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The Lowy Institute @lowyinstitute.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpret…
lowyinstitute.org
Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia
A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Maria Carmen (Ica) Fernandez @icafernandez.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 13/11/2025
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
russell h @stencilarchive.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
thediplomat.com/2025/11/thro...
thediplomat.com
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
Domestic challenges threaten to derail the military’s efforts to upgrade its capabilities and reorient itself toward new strategic priorities.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u... "While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
news.usni.org
U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News
This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 09/10/2025
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia. Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president. Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 14/10/2025
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
reuters.com
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election. The polls, however, have been postponed. I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist: open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
open.spotify.com
Spotify – Web Player
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
youtube.com
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC Registration: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
crisisgroup.org
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 14/08/2025
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social. Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Mi Ra SOUL @flipcritic.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
crisisgroup.org
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2025
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
ABS-CBN News @news.abs-cbn.com · 17/06/2025
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
abs-cbn.com
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
The Philippine government's acquisition of twelve more FA-50 light combat aircraft will not diminish the chances of acquiring other multi-role fighters (MRF) as these are different platforms that would enhance the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) fleet.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 12/06/2025
As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world. As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 15/05/2025
NEW REPORT | The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
"With so much of Philippine power concentrated in the capital with varying degrees of devolution to local vassals, Malacañang’s hand is never truly hidden."
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 31/05/2025
As 🇺🇸 Def Sec warns 🇨🇳 attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”, @CrisisGroup takes a look at Taiwanese Pres Lai Ching-te 1st yr. ➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught. ➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.  ⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
crisisgroup.org
President Lai’s First Year Sees Increased Tensions across the Taiwan Strait | International Crisis Group
As Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te completes his first year in office, cross-strait relations have become especially fraught. Crisis Group expert William Yang explains why Taipei and Beijing are incr...
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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Troy Lee-Brown @drtlee-brown.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
US & PH militaries will train in maritime security, live-fire & amphibious operations. The GSDF (incl Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) & ROK marines will take part in disaster relief training. 1st time ARDB participates with ROK peer in multinat training exercise asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
asia.nikkei.com
US-Philippine military exercise joined by Japan, South Korea forces
Asian partners seek deeper cooperation to counter China-Russia-North Korea ties
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The Manila Times @themanilatimes.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police. READ: tmt.news/2120940
tmt.news
Tondo residents clash with police-backed demolition team
MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police.
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Friso Dubbelboer @frisodubbelboer.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
"Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has called for a joint ASEAN action plan to address the growing tariff threat. Anwar said.. that, while bilateral talks between member states and the U.S. would continue, the bloc must present a united front." www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
japantimes.co.jp
U.S. tariff tensions test Southeast Asian leaders at regional summit
ASEAN leaders will express deep concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff blitz when they meet at a summit Monday, according to a draft statement.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
In case you missed it: Our report @crisisgroup.org. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
crisisgroup.org
Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group
The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
Everyday legacies of the Pacific War. Santa Mesa, Manila.
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Tune in to our event! The report: www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
crisisgroup.org
Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group
The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Featured on a TV segment in the Philippines yesterday talking about the Bangsamoro Peace Process and why it matters. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UBZ...
youtube.com
Engelbrecht: Disarmament in BARMM remains a problem | The Big Story
YouTube video by One PH
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 15/05/2025
NEW VIDEO | U.S. - China | Asia's Military Modernisation As the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific transforms, we introduce our new series of reports that look into the intensifying great power competition between the U.S. and China. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
crisisgroup.org
U.S.-China | Asia's Military Modernisation | International Crisis Group
As the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific transforms, Crisis Group’s Deputy Director for Asia, Huong Le Thu, looks at how threat perceptions about China’s strategic ambitions, concerns about Washi...
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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
On the ground in the Bangsamoro region in the Philippines to see how the local and midterm elections in the region shape national politics and the peace process.
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Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 15/04/2025
Today Sudan enters its third year of war. As the world’s largest humanitarian crisis deepens, there are growing risks of the conflict escalating. Let’s hope the UK’s one day conference today focuses on how to stem the country’s destruction & fragmentation. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...
crisisgroup.org
Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading | Crisis Group
After the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum, many hoped that Sudan’s war would start winding down. Instead, as it enters its third year, the conflict is escalating and likely to expand in scope, unles...
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