Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 11hIt’s a deep moat. Deep enough that for most people ‘warhammer’ and ‘wargaming’ are the same thing. Proper incumbent advantages. Are there a hundred other better miniature games? Yes. Can you guarantee you’ll find an opponent for them any night of the week in any reasonably sized area? No. 130
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 12hOh and look at that above it! What’s a ‘fuel duty increase’? 030
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 12hIf you go back to the original tapering away of the personal allowance at £100,000 at Budget 2009 it was such a piddlingly small measure. Why on earth bother for this little revenue? 120
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 12hWouldn’t rule out: (1) misunderstanding housing equity as ‘savings’. And (2) skim reading transwomen as women. 020
Reposted by Duncan WeldonWin Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 14hCredit spreads really doing the numbers here in the last couple weeks www.ft.com/content/7c7c... 0153
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 14hThis is cheating. The done thing is to have strong views on the End of History, Bowling Alone, Imagined Communities, Clash of Civilisations and maybe the Rise and Fall of The Great Powers but to have never actually read any of them. 170
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hLast thought: spreads and direction of travel absolutely matter. But we’re still talking about French 10 year yields under 5%. 070
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hAlso: the ECB is not a ‘normal’ central bank and sometimes this is easy to forget. In an acute crisis, you’re better off thinking about it as an intergovernmental agency where politics matter as much as (or more than) technocratic monetary policy making. 190
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hWorth (if you’re horrifyingly young) reminding yourself of the circumstances surrounding the fall of the Berlusconi government and the ECB in 2011. 241
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hYeah. Fundamentally the ECB will not let France blow up. But the politics of the next French government will play a big role here. 261
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hThis is an excellent read. www.ft.com/content/9b25... France: between the bond market and the barricadesft.comFrance: between the bond market and the barricadesThe country is being hit by a pre-election debt sell-off. Many fear it could shake the Eurozone 1102
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hAn interesting read. cepr.org/voxeu/column...cepr.orgHiding in the mean: AI is adding jobs and removing them at the same timeEstimates of AI's employment effect disagree in size and even in sign. This column argues the disagreement is built into the measurement: AI substitutes for humans on some tasks and complements humans... 081
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15hStruggling to see a route that doesn’t involve Poland/Germany/Scandinavia. All of whom are (understandably) investing in missile and drone defences from which we benefit. Adding extra (less necessary) air defences to the UK is a poor contribution to NATO security. 110
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 16hReally can’t see why you’d make domestic air defence a defence spending priority. (My view on this is coloured by occasionally looking at a map). 8443
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Old system: select the countries I want, click the three or four series I want, select the years I want, download as a spreadsheet. New system: give up after a few minutes and ask Claude to get it for me. 1140
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026My hand writing has become so bad that I am struggling to make sense of a note I wrote for myself on Friday. 11510
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I’ll give you ‘at least interesting’ and definitely very different to anything else on telly at the time. 110
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026(Sadly gone) IMF WEO Database > IMF Data Portal. 4100
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Partially an experience thing right? Sonny Baker has played 14 domestic List A matches. And I can’t ever see him skipping the Hundred to play in the Metro Bank Cup. 110
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026More seriously: England are an absolute top tier T20 team nowadays. With surprisingly low levels of 50 overs experience. It is an interesting question whether it is easier to turn a T20 team into an ODI team or a Test team into an ODI team. 190
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Don’t understand this new England approach. Warming up? Playing practice games? It’ll never catch on. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricke...bbc.co.ukEngland confirm 50-over warm-up fixture at the Waca before Australia tourEngland confirm warm-up fixture at the Waca before this winter's white-ball tour of Australia - a stark contrast to last year's Ashes defeat. 3200
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Not helped by the insistence of modern TV commissioners/producers that production standards/costumes/sets have to be really top notch. Noteable that, say, I Think You Should Leave is mostly sketches set in 2020s America. Can’t just show an actor in a hat & frock coat and do a Victorian sketch now. 191
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I think the thing with Python is that the good stuff is great but the rest is just dross. Where as, with lots of other shows, the good stuff is good to great and the rest is sort of fine. 290
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026There is a reason why some sketches do millions of views on YouTube but no broadcaster is really keen on reshowing the whole thing. 9621
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026If the Great War was long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror, then MPFC is long periods of tedium punctuated by moments of genius. 611612
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Top tip: double your morning step count by forgetting your youngest’s packed lunch when doing the school run. 3852
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026It always had surprising emotional depth alongside proper laughs and good characters. They’ve kept that whilst scaling back the more, erm, out dated bits. I’d happily watch the new stuff with the teen. I’d think she’d have less time for some bits of the original run. 120
Reposted by Duncan WeldonGavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I visited the Amazon rainforest a year ago ahead of the cop conference in Belem. Historically the only thing that has stopped deforestation has been electing Lula da Silva has Brazilian president. www.economist.com/the-americas... 1448157
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Find the bowling system oddly relaxing once you get into the pace of it. My family judged me spending 45 minutes practicing batting in virtual nets as strange behaviour. 110
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026If I choose to get up at 6am on a Sunday and play two hours of my IPL season before anyone else wakes up, I don’t see why this is a problem. And questions like ‘how much have you played this since last week?’ can be interpreted as ‘wow, what amazing value you’re getting from £49.99!’. 7640
Reposted by Duncan WeldonUlrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 04/10/2026“In a tie-up with French defence electronics specialist Thales announced in June, Renault will co-produce its “Toutatis” drones and increase the current output 100 times over to 1,000 a month at full capacity, with production ready to go from 2027.”ft.comHow Renault went from driveshafts to dronesFrench carmaker turns mass-manufacturing expertise to new frontier of warfare 211219
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Was my birthday last week. Bought myself Cricket 26 on the PlayStation. My family regret this decision. 2581
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Uber is a great analogy. It has a useful and good technology - much easier than calling a minicab firm or flagging a taxi. And when it was ridiculously subsidised: I used it a lot. Now it is priced at actual cost, I use it very irregularly. 1101
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Presumably somebody watched this and said ‘yeah, nailed it. That’s what we want’. 2130
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Ah. It is because your lawyer has to be strong. Obvs. 2120
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Paying for one. But not sure I am paying the actual price of providing the service. 120
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026I’m in the boring camp. Which is ‘I’ve found lots of useful applications for this tech in my day to day work and life. But I’m not sure how much I’d actually pay for most of them’. 1120
Reposted by Duncan WeldonJacob Aron @jjaron.bsky.social · 04/10/2026So much of LLM boosting is talking about what they may do, not what they can do now. It means that sceptics end up talking about the past and boosters talk about the future - no wonder they talk past each other 1294
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026You can set your watch now for one consequence of this: Circa 2045 when politicians are asking ‘why are so many NHS doctors retiring much earlier than we expected and causing staffing issues?’ Answer: because policy encouraged them to really load up their pensions 2010-25. 0110
Reposted by Duncan WeldonEd Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 04/10/2026✍️ How diesel found itself at the heart of geopolitics. And why Donald Trump is taking a leaf out of Putin and Xi's playbook. A simple explainer edconway.substack.com/p/the-diesel...edconway.substack.comThe Diesel WeaponWhy a rather unglamorous fuel is suddenly at the centre of a transatlantic power struggle, and why this matters for all of us 75018
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The real demonstration of the strength of Indian white ball cricket is that they can play a T20 and an ODI on the same day with two strong sides. Can’t imagine England managing that. 270
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026It is probably the best aport for watching via a slowly updated webpage. Top fact: Ronald Reagan worked as a baseball commentator for radio in the 1930s. He didn’t actually attend the games but got ball by ball updates via a ticker and just made up commentary based on that. 1140