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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

The impact of the alphabet on electoral performance is real (data from 2023 locals): ⬇️Every position lower on the ballot within your party costs ~1.2 percentage points of vote share. ⬆️Being an incumbent is worth ~1.7 percentage points so being 2nd wipes out 70% of the incumbency advantage.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Updating my slides for my local government module - any guesses as to what these maps are showing?

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Trying to organise a drinks reception in uni: - Cost of buying the drinks from (compulsory) in-house catering = £650. - Cost of buying the same drinks from the on-campus Tesco = £250. Madness.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Even among the 2015 coalition - the glory years for the wets - the party breakdown is 🟣RFM: 34% 🔵CON: 29% 🤷🏼‍♂️Don't Know/Wouldn't Vote: 19% 🟠LD: 9% 🔴LAB: 6% The future of the Tory party does not lie with Barwell, Gauke, or Rudd - the world has changed and left them behind.

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Listening to the ghosts of Tories past - and moving to the 'centre' - is not a great idea for Kemi. If you track how Tory voters in each GE have voted in other elections, it's not clear that the Cameronite coalition has fled the Tories for centrist parties.

A grid of horizontal stacked bar charts titled “How Former Conservative Voters Have Voted Over Time.” Each panel represents a group of voters defined by the election year in which they voted Conservative (e.g. 2005 Tory Voters through 2025 Tory Voters). Within each panel, bars show the proportional distribution (0–100%) of how those voters reported voting in other general elections (2005 to 2025). Bars are colour-coded by party: Conservative (blue), UKIP/BXP/Reform (teal), Liberal Democrat (yellow), Labour (red), Green (green), Other (light grey), and Don’t Know/Would Not Vote (dark grey). Across all panels, Conservative remains the largest share in most years, with noticeable variation over time in support for UKIP/BXP/Reform, Labour, and other parties. The x-axis shows proportion, the y-axis lists election years, and the legend appears at the bottom. Source: British Election Study Waves 1–30.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Thank you very much Gabriel, very kind!

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Well, that's one hell of a REF impact case study over in Gorton and Denton.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Thank you! Hopefully will get to re-run the analysis after May.

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

We find evidence - like @timbale.bsky.social has done in his work on party members - that we're seeing our multi-party politics coalesce into a two-bloc political system.

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

As Reform’s councillor base grows, I’m resharing our study on how party policy positions differ across England. 'How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties' in @uk.theconversation.com theconversation.com/how-englands...

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties

Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Nothing says 'start the week right' like a journal sending a paper rejection at 8:39 on a Monday! #thingscanonlygetbetter

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Reposted by Dr David Jeffery

PSA Conservatism Studies Specialist Group @psaconservatism.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

CfP: Baldwin & a Conservatism seminar series - mailchi.mp/6b149a8cbcab...

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

It's a pleasure to be at the University of Tours for a conference on the future of the Conservative Party, in memory of our colleague Agnés Alexandre-Collier. The @psaconservatism.bsky.social specialist group is also sponsoring a roundtable on the future of British conservatism.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Spent the morning geeking out on the Dutch elections - a bad night for Geert Wilders, but not as bad for the populist radical right generally. We also saw some shuffling among the centre - collapse of the Christian democratic NSC boosted the CSA and liberal D66. #Netherlands

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

"A clear divide exists in local government along overlapping economic and cultural lines. Reform councillors typically take the most rightwing positions (except on the NHS) followed by the Conservatives, including on tax & spend." Top survey research from @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social & Mitya Pearson.

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties

Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

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Dr Andrew S. Roe-Crines 🏳️‍🌈 @andrewcrines.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Happy Birthday! It was an excellent workshop with lots of great papers from a sampling of chapters & wider discussions. The weather also held up nicely so we had lunch on the Square! I'm certain the book will be a valuable contribution to leadership & #Conservative studies. @livunipol.bsky.social

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Celebrating my final day of being 32 by hosting an academic workshop at @livunipol.bsky.social for our upcoming book 'The Truss and Sunak premierships: the challenges of party renewal in the post-Johnson Conservative Party', with @andrewcrines.bsky.social.

Research@LivUni @livuniresearch.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Reposted by Dr David Jeffery

MPs voted to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales on June 20. 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds, but how did religion affect their choice? #UoL's @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social investigates in our latest article written for @theconversation.com. 👉 theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...

Assisted dying: 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds – here’s how religion affected their choices

A group of MPs switched their vote between second and third reading, with those identifying as religious more likely to end up opposing the law change.

Political Studies Association @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

Reposted by Dr David Jeffery

Thanks to our brilliant academic speakers @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social‬ ‪@liverpooluni.bsky.social‬ @and Cristina Leston-Bandeira @universityofleeds.bsky.social‬ who spoke at yesterday's Seminar for UK #Teachers: The Work of a Peer with @ukparliament.parliament.uk

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Dr Andrew S. Roe-Crines 🏳️‍🌈 @andrewcrines.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Great reps from @livunipol.bsky.social, meeting MPs, journalists, & our brilliant professional #alumni networking in #Westminster! A great way into a professional career is through #postgraduate study, such as our Public Admin Policy MA! www.liverpool.ac.uk/courses/publ... @prfandrwrssll.bsky.social

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LSE Blogs @lseblogs.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

Following the recent #UK-#EU summit, #Britain is moving closer to the EU again. So why does the idea of Britain rejoining the customs union, single market or the EU itself still seem so unlikely? Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social on @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social‬

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market?

There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.

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LSE European Politics @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

💥 New: Is the UK-EU reset the first step toward Britain rejoining the single market? ✍️ Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social‬ & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social‬

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market?

There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

Ahead of the assisted dying vote on Friday, I'm in @uk.theconversation.com looking at how religion, party, and demographics influenced the 2nd reading vote. Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...

Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting

MPs will soon vote on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill. Analysis of the second reading shows how religion, identity and party shaped support and opposition.

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Liverpool might seem solidly Labour but Reform could soon become the city's main opposition. This map shows 2nd-placed parties from the 2014/15 local elections - north Liverpool is almost as purple as our wheelie bins (...and might explain Dan Carden’s shift towards blue Labour)

Dr Andrew S. Roe-Crines 🏳️‍🌈 @andrewcrines.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Reposted by Dr David Jeffery

NEW! Delighted to have a new article in Parliamentary Affairs that deals with the topic everyone is talk about - #Badenoch's election as @Conservatives leader! With @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Tim Heppell, the article can be found here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... @livunipol.bsky.social

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

🚨 We've got a new journal article out analysing bases of support in the Conservative Party leadership election. 🧐The decline of ideology as a key determinant of MPs' voting behaviour is striking. 🤓and since the contest ended in Nov, this is a quick turnaround for academia!

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

No problem at all - hope it's useful!

Patrick Smith @drpaddysmith.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Reposted by Dr David Jeffery

Quick comparison to the population at large, because I was curious. MPs % first, then Wikipedia's % from combined census data from 2021-22: Christian 54.7 vs 46.53 None 36.4 vs 37.75 Muslim 3.9 vs 5.97 Jewish 2 vs 0.41 Sikh 1.9 vs 0.79 Hindu 0.9 vs 1.59 Buddhist 0.2 vs 0.43

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Yep, it's on the dashboard (it has its own tab) and in the dataset (mp_swear_book)

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

*well, HumanistsUK had the data, but they wouldn't share it. Which is not very Humanist of them, if you ask me.

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Is this data perfect? No. Some MPs will be quietly agnostic or atheist but still choose to swear on the Bible, for instance, for whatever reason. But it is certainly better than what went before - nothing. Let's not make the perfect the enemy of the good!

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Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

I'll be updating the dashboard and data with the outcome of the third reading on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill today. The raw data can be downloaded from github.com/davidjeffery...

github.com

GitHub - davidjeffery/mpreligion

Contribute to davidjeffery/mpreligion development by creating an account on GitHub.

Dr David Jeffery @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Why does this matter? 🧐 🗳️ MPs don’t have to declare their religion. But it often shapes how they vote - especially on moral issues like assisted dying. 🧠This dashboard gives voters, journalists, and researchers an evidence-based look at where MPs stand, beyond party lines.