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Dom White

@domw.bsky.social
11K followers 995 following 8.1K posts

Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 6h
I wonder if Adobe realises that forcing three different popups on you when all you're trying to do is open a f**king pdf is exactly why people are using AI to create their own open source versions of their products?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 8h
static.klipy.com
After This Week: Giant Wine Glass Drink
ALT: After This Week: Giant Wine Glass Drink
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 12h
The chart is borrowed from the IMF, so it's those guys that need to do the time.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 12h
⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀ 🤠      📈📊📉     📈  📊 📉    👇🏽  📈📉 👇🏽      📊  📊      📊  📊       👢  👢 Howdy, I'm the Sheriff of Chart Crimes round these parts and this one is going down without trial.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 23h
Ahhh, thanks Guy. That makes a lot of sense.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Also, it’s going to be a bit awks if you’re talking about crowding out now and then the building of new semiconductor fabs helps non-residential construction investment pick up again, as looks quite possible: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
federalreserve.gov
Measuring and Projecting U.S. Investment in Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It’s quite obviously the case that high mortgage rates are squeezing house building. But the decline in investment manufacturing structures is all about the fading of subsidies in the CHIPS act.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I am begging people to please look into what’s driving the weakness in US non-residential construction spending before uttering the phrase “crowding out”. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Guy - sorry to change the subject, but I remember you posting a few weeks ago about why you thought the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics weren't the best dataset to use in Apollo's recent paper on AI and wages. Can you remind me why that's the case?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Lags appear to be at least part of the answer. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
federalreserve.gov
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Is this your group chat with @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social for discussing latest developments in central heating?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I would just point out that if you look into the subcategories in manufacturing, which shows the biggest decline in your chart, it's pretty clear that it's not high interest rates choking off investment. It's all driven by a subsector you would expect to be positively affected by that demand shock.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This is Michael Pettis rage bait.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Funny and also … predictable?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Stop the world I want to get off.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Built in heating systems
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
There is some empirical support for your hunch: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
federalreserve.gov
Private Credit Growth and Monetary Policy Transmission
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
You could say something along the lines of "the lags - they are both long *and* variable"
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Didn't know Unai Emery used to trade rates.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It matters for anyone who wants/needs to buy a house or take out a loan for other reasons. And it matters for savings/investment decisions. Guaranteed 3% real return over 10 years should matter for other asset prices.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Yeah, it's maybe a bit of a leap but it kind of reinforces the idea that investment isn't particularly sensitive to movements in interest rates even if you control for differences across firms.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"Although several firm characteristics predict responsiveness to monetary policy, the majority of heterogeneity remains unexplained ... We demonstrate that our empirical estimates provide new targets for disciplining structural models of firm heterogeneity." www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...
newyorkfed.org
Staff Reports
Technical working papers
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Give me 30 degrees every day over this damp crap.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Yeah, January and February are long and hard. But I also dislike November a lot because it's getting progressively darker and it's just a month of utter meh.
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Reposted by Dom White
Five Minute Macro @fiveminutemacro.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It's funny, but on the other hand, it's no different to the entire SpaceX investment thesis: 'space big', so I don't see what the problem is.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
While I'm happy for you, my teenagers will try and sleep until midday regardless of how dark it is. So this doesn't change my opinion on how terrible late autumn and winter are.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Autumn is nice up until about now. Then it just gets dark and wet and rubbish and you have to wait it out until spring.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Never had a pack of Kerrygold?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Butter should be the spread for Irish government bonds.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
No butter needed … but still better with than without.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Or it could just be that it was one of the occasions that government needed to provide better macro conditions for businesses to do their job?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“The British public also believes that the Pope is Roman Catholic and bears shit in the woods.”
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Reposted by Dom White
Howlingatthe Moon @oog.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
oh look, it's Fedward
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"Explain again why prices and yields move in opposite directions?"
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Oh man, the profits that the US makes from the rest of the world are just getting worse and worse.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
No. I'm not really sure what point you're trying to score here. But his government provided subsidies to create capacity in an industry he considered to be of strategic national importance - and he had started to achieve that outcome until the Trump admin withdrew them.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
No, Biden subsidized the construction of new manufacturing plants for fabricating semiconductors.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
No but the loss of Biden-era subsidies is why construction spending on new manufacturing plants has declined since late 2024 - almost all of which has been concentrated in the computer, electronic & electrical category. Seems like a stretch to blame that on AI spending driving rates higher.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
One of those rare occasions I think Krugtron is wrong. The weakness in non-datacenter construction is as much about Biden-era subsidies dropping out as it is about higher interest rates squeezing out construction investment.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I don't think Giles is arguing that PMs should have *no* theory of growth. My read was that what makes a good environment for growth is difficult to conceptualise and communicate beyond fairly banal platitudes, like "we must improve education and support R&D".
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Every office should have an office dog
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm an economist and I don't believe that.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
BBC News at 10 O'clock
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I enjoyed this quite a lot: gileswilkes.substack.com/p/please-sto...
gileswilkes.substack.com
please stop asking prime ministers for their theory of growth
look, I said please
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Ahhh, thanks
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
SV?
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I was thinking 1997!
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
static.klipy.com
Stonks Up Meme: Market Gains
ALT: Stonks Up Meme: Market Gains
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
90 minutes might be a bit tight, but: www.nationaltrust.org.uk/visit/birmin...
nationaltrust.org.uk
Radware Page
Loader page.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Woof
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