Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 6hI wonder if Adobe realises that forcing three different popups on you when all you're trying to do is open a f**king pdf is exactly why people are using AI to create their own open source versions of their products? 5565
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 8hstatic.klipy.comAfter This Week: Giant Wine Glass DrinkALT: After This Week: Giant Wine Glass Drink 010
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 12hThe chart is borrowed from the IMF, so it's those guys that need to do the time. 2110
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 12h ⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀ 🤠 📈📊📉 📈 📊 📉 👇🏽 📈📉 👇🏽 📊 📊 📊 📊 👢 👢 Howdy, I'm the Sheriff of Chart Crimes round these parts and this one is going down without trial. 2854
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Also, it’s going to be a bit awks if you’re talking about crowding out now and then the building of new semiconductor fabs helps non-residential construction investment pick up again, as looks quite possible: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...federalreserve.govMeasuring and Projecting U.S. Investment in Semiconductor Manufacturing CapacityThe Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC. 151
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026It’s quite obviously the case that high mortgage rates are squeezing house building. But the decline in investment manufacturing structures is all about the fading of subsidies in the CHIPS act. 1244
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I am begging people to please look into what’s driving the weakness in US non-residential construction spending before uttering the phrase “crowding out”. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... 1204
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Guy - sorry to change the subject, but I remember you posting a few weeks ago about why you thought the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics weren't the best dataset to use in Apollo's recent paper on AI and wages. Can you remind me why that's the case? 121
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Lags appear to be at least part of the answer. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...federalreserve.gov 030
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Is this your group chat with @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social for discussing latest developments in central heating? 120
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I would just point out that if you look into the subcategories in manufacturing, which shows the biggest decline in your chart, it's pretty clear that it's not high interest rates choking off investment. It's all driven by a subsector you would expect to be positively affected by that demand shock. 1100
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026There is some empirical support for your hunch: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...federalreserve.govPrivate Credit Growth and Monetary Policy TransmissionThe Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC. 121
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026You could say something along the lines of "the lags - they are both long *and* variable" 220
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026It matters for anyone who wants/needs to buy a house or take out a loan for other reasons. And it matters for savings/investment decisions. Guaranteed 3% real return over 10 years should matter for other asset prices. 120
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Yeah, it's maybe a bit of a leap but it kind of reinforces the idea that investment isn't particularly sensitive to movements in interest rates even if you control for differences across firms. 140
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"Although several firm characteristics predict responsiveness to monetary policy, the majority of heterogeneity remains unexplained ... We demonstrate that our empirical estimates provide new targets for disciplining structural models of firm heterogeneity." www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...newyorkfed.orgStaff ReportsTechnical working papers 251
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Yeah, January and February are long and hard. But I also dislike November a lot because it's getting progressively darker and it's just a month of utter meh. 000
Reposted by Dom WhiteFive Minute Macro @fiveminutemacro.bsky.social · 07/10/2026It's funny, but on the other hand, it's no different to the entire SpaceX investment thesis: 'space big', so I don't see what the problem is. 7153
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026While I'm happy for you, my teenagers will try and sleep until midday regardless of how dark it is. So this doesn't change my opinion on how terrible late autumn and winter are. 010
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Autumn is nice up until about now. Then it just gets dark and wet and rubbish and you have to wait it out until spring. 5140
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Or it could just be that it was one of the occasions that government needed to provide better macro conditions for businesses to do their job? 130
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026“The British public also believes that the Pope is Roman Catholic and bears shit in the woods.” 120
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"Explain again why prices and yields move in opposite directions?" 390
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Oh man, the profits that the US makes from the rest of the world are just getting worse and worse. 1183
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026No. I'm not really sure what point you're trying to score here. But his government provided subsidies to create capacity in an industry he considered to be of strategic national importance - and he had started to achieve that outcome until the Trump admin withdrew them. 100
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026No, Biden subsidized the construction of new manufacturing plants for fabricating semiconductors. 100
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026No but the loss of Biden-era subsidies is why construction spending on new manufacturing plants has declined since late 2024 - almost all of which has been concentrated in the computer, electronic & electrical category. Seems like a stretch to blame that on AI spending driving rates higher. 011
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026One of those rare occasions I think Krugtron is wrong. The weakness in non-datacenter construction is as much about Biden-era subsidies dropping out as it is about higher interest rates squeezing out construction investment. 2266
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I don't think Giles is arguing that PMs should have *no* theory of growth. My read was that what makes a good environment for growth is difficult to conceptualise and communicate beyond fairly banal platitudes, like "we must improve education and support R&D". 110
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I enjoyed this quite a lot: gileswilkes.substack.com/p/please-sto...gileswilkes.substack.complease stop asking prime ministers for their theory of growthlook, I said please 283
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/2026static.klipy.comStonks Up Meme: Market GainsALT: Stonks Up Meme: Market Gains 010
Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 05/10/202690 minutes might be a bit tight, but: www.nationaltrust.org.uk/visit/birmin...nationaltrust.org.ukRadware PageLoader page. 000