Sign in

Dionis Cenusa

@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
469 followers 10 following 257 posts

Risk Analyst, Assoc. Expert: @EESC_LT; @Expert_Grup; ex-@CEPS_thinktank; FP/Risk&Crisis/security/sanctions/energy/CIP/EU-Eurasia-Russia-China-GlobalSouth

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Hungary's Orban is gone. Will Peter Magyar drastically change Hungary - Russia relationship? Spoiler: don't expect any sudden moves. Meet the new kind of European pragmatism @dioniscenusa.bsky.social for Riddle Russia ridl.io/de-orbanisat...
ridl.io
De-Orbanisation of Hungarian Foreign Policy vis-à-vis Moscow – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on what to expect from Péter Magyar’s Russia policy
092
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
The voters of Tisza are unlikely to simply give up if Orban wins again. The trust in the fairness of the electoral process is rather low. The EU has to be ready to step in if mediation is necessary. Via @dioniscenusa.bsky.social 8/end
0101
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
There are a few features of the electoral events in #Hungary that enable drawing parallels with those in Belarus and Georgia. 🧵 1/
1102
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Orbán's rhetoric aligns with Russian narratives portraying Ukraine as a war risk for the EU and a burden on enlargement. This aims to: boost Fidesz's reelection odds and weaken Ukraine in peace talks. @dioniscenusa.bsky.social ridl.io/orban-s-surv...
ridl.io
Orbán’s Survival Pact – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on Orbán
0168
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps?, @dioniscenusa.bsky.social writes. ridl.io/moldova-s-pr... #Moldova #Russia #EU
ridl.io
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement
063
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
After the parliamentary elections in #Moldova, the key focus for pro-EU forces should be providing economic growth - otherwise Euroscepticism fueled by Russia will weaken Moldova's European future @dioniscenusa.bsky.social ridl.io/moldova-s-pr...
ridl.io
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement
083
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Center for European Policy Analysis @cepa.org · 02/10/2025
Why Moldova Matters | "For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like. That signals its importance." @dioniscenusa.bsky.social
cepa.org
Why Moldova Matters
For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like.
0134
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
If you, inexplicably :-), missed the most recent episode of my 🎙️ #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, here it is: ▶️ Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
podcasters.spotify.com
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? by The Global Agora
Is it accurate to describe the upcoming elections in Moldova, scheduled for September 28, as a duel between the pro-EU and pro-Russian camps? Has Russia been at least partly successful in influencing ...
013
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
My latest piece: “Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia?” For @ispionline.bsky.social www.ispionline.it/en/publicati...
ispionline.it
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia? | ISPI
With parliamentary elections looming on 28 September, Moldova faces a critical juncture. The outcome could either consolidate its pro-EU trajectory under President Maia Sandu’s party or compel a delic...
022
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social. ▶️ ko-fi.com/post/Moldova... If you enjoy what I do, please buy me coffee ☕️. Thank you! #Moldova #Russia #EU #Ukraine #Putinswar
ko-fi.com
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win?
Andrej Matisak published a post on Ko-fi
031
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social. ▶️ #Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m... ▶️ #Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/6RVb... ▶️ #Goodpods goodpods.com/podcasts/the... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics
podcasts.apple.com
032
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? Listen to another episode of 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora. I talked to @dioniscenusa.bsky.social. podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics
podcasters.spotify.com
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? by The Global Agora
Is it accurate to describe the upcoming elections in Moldova, scheduled for September 28, as a duel between the pro-EU and pro-Russian camps? Has Russia been at least partly successful in influencing ...
032
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
The New Union Post @newunionpost.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
What does #Cyprus teach the EU about candidate countries with occupied or separatist territories, such as #Ukraine, #Moldova, and #Georgia? An interview with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, associate expert at the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC) newunionpost.eu/2025/09/23/c...
newunionpost.eu
Is Cyprus an example for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia?
Cyprus' lack of territorial integrity has never posed existential threats for the EU as a whole. But with the three candidates, the situation could be different
011
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
My new paper: “The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’”. An earlier version of this paper was funded by SONAC, with UK Ministry of Defence. For @gssc-lt.bsky.social www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...
gssc.lt
The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’ | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known a...
020
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
#romania Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia broader geopolitical calculations in the EU.His success would mark the first instance since Trump’s victory where MAGA propels sovereigntists in electoral processes beyond USA @dioniscenusa.bsky.social ridl.io/the-russian-...
ridl.io
The Russian versus MAGA Effect on the Romanian Elections: Which Weighs More? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on why Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia’s broader geopolitical calculations in the EU
063
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Geopolitics and Security Studies Center @gssc-lt.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
We are pleased to share that the @consilium.europa.eu has included a publication “Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Partnership: Three Ways to Upgrade Amid Geopolitical Competition” written by the GSSC analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social in its list of recommended research for April. Read more:
consilium.europa.eu
Think Tank Review - April 2025
EU enlargement and the balance of power in the Council; invest in Europe first; defence expenditure in the context of the EU’s fiscal rules; how the European gas market can wean itself off Russian imp...
111
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
The Loop @ecprtheloop.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
🧭 #EUEnlargementDilemmas No.12 🪆 Russia is emboldening sovereigntist #populism, spreading #disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship, all of which poses a threat to #EUEnlargement. 🤝 @dioniscenusa.bsky.social suggests countermeasures to protect the EU's resilience. 👇 bit.ly/42Cq4rn
bit.ly
🧭 Russia’s hybrid warfare on EU enlargement
Russia’s hybrid tactics — emboldening sovereigntist populism, spreading disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship — threaten EU enlargement.
023
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
063
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
In a nutshell: if a far-right guy wins Romania, pro-Russian forces have a much better chance next year in Moldova. These dynamic is observed with great interest from Moscow @dioniscenusa.bsky.social ridl.io/romania-s-ra...
ridl.io
Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
4289
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Geopolitics and Security Studies Center @gssc-lt.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
🌍Regional wake-up call: the EU’s Eastern Partnership is at a crossroads. Our associate expert @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores how EU, Ukraine, Moldova & others navigate growing geopolitical competition, urging the EU to rethink its Eastern strategy. Read more ⬇️ #Geopolitics #EU
211
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
My latest article: “Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence” for @RiddleRussia ridl.io/romania-s-ra...
ridl.io
Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
011
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
#Ukraine: Russia and its main ally in Europe, Hungary, are using two levers to undermine Ukraine's willingness to fight on the battlefield: 1) Moscow is slowing down peace talks, negotiating with the US to reduce aid to Ukraine, and making it more susceptible to concessions;⤵️
121
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
My latest article: "The Yerevan-Baku “peace” deal and the fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia" for @gssc-lt.bsky.social www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...
gssc.lt
The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)
021
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Geopolitics and Security Studies Center @gssc-lt.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan - What’s Next for the EU Mission? What are the prospects for a peace agreement? What is the future of the EU’s EUMA mission? @gssc-lt.bsky.social Associate Analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores these questions and more in the latest bulletin.
gssc.lt
The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)
011
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
#Russia_Sanctions: The US is dropping its pursuit of Russian oligarchs as part of its sanctions mechanism against drug cartels and terrorist groups (domestic angle of security): ⤵️
110
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
#Azerbaijan: Baku has called for the closure of the Russian House and USAID in Azerbaijan, arguing that it does not need external help. Baku is contesting the external influence.
130
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
#Ukraine: The US indicates, through Rubio's comments, the following guiding principles for the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: 1) both sides must make concessions; ⤵️
100
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
#EU_Enlargement: The EU has not applied sanctions to Serbia, but ongoing protests have put pressure on Vučević to resign. In contrast, the nearly two months of protests in another EU candidate country, Georgia, ⤵️
100
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
#EU_Enlargement: There is no interest from the EU in escalating sanctions against the Georgian government: 1) HR/VP Kallas highlighted that sanctions on diplomatic passports are in place, but this measure can be circumvented by the proponents of the government in Tbilisi. ⤵️
100
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
#EasternEurope: US development aid has been suspended for 90 days (for now, except for Egypt and Israel). USAID is funding projects related to political and regulatory reforms.⤵️
110
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
#FrozenConflicts: Russia has decided to supply its gas to the Transnistrian region. A Cyprus company has booked the capacities for 3.1 million m³ for 160 million dollars in February-April 2025 (but it is highly likely to be extended if transit via Ukraine is not resumed). ⤵️
101
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
#EasternEurope: Trump has ordered a three-month suspension of aid to NGOs abroad, which appears to be part of his so-called “anti-globalist” agenda. The question is whether the EU has enough resources to replace US funding for civil society in Eastern Europe.⤵️
110
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
#FrozenConflicts: The separatist regime has agreed with Chisinau on the condition that it will be supplied with Russian gas. The gas supply will be provided by Moldovagaz, a company controlled by Russia. Chisinau does not accept other companies to get involved in gas supply to Transnistria.⤵️
121
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
#Russia_Moldova: The Kremlin has put forward two scenarios for Moldova in view of the current energy crisis and its anti-Russian stance: 1) absorption by another country; 2) ceasing to exist. This statement comes ahead of the parliamentary elections. This is part of Moscow's escalating rhetoric,⤵️
110
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
#EasternEurope: The Romanian govt is ready to help Moldova in the energy sector to prevent the return of Russian gas and energy (via Transnistria). Romanian/European gas saves the energy system from collapse. However, the Moldovan population is falling into greater energy poverty.⤵️
111
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
#Hybrid: Elon Musk is engaging in malign external interference in European politics. What he is doing is what Putin has been attempting for the past decade: promoting far-right political parties to weaken EU unity and⤵️
142
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
#Hybrid: Russia adds another layer of narratives to distract attention from the essence of the energy crisis in Transnistria: initially Moscow claimed that the crisis arose due to⤵️
101
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Everything you need to know about energy crisis in Transnistrian region of Moldova and what could happen there next @dioniscenusa.bsky.social for ridl.io ridl.io/energy-crisi...
ridl.io
Energy crisis in Transnistrian region: Is Russian gas replaceable? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa works through scenarios of how to overcome the energy crisis in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region
052
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
My latest article: “Energy crisis in Transnistrian region: Is Russian gas replaceable?” for @RidlRussia ridl.io/energy-crisi...
ridl.io
Energy crisis in Transnistrian region: Is Russian gas replaceable? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa works through scenarios of how to overcome the energy crisis in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region
051
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
#NewPublication: My latest article: “Polish EU Presidency puts Russian hybrid threats in the spotlight” www.intellinews.com/cenusa-polis...
intellinews.com
CENUSA: Polish EU Presidency puts Russian hybrid threats in the spotlight
After six months under a Russian-aligned Hungarian presidency of the EU Council, the leadership has now passed to Poland, a strong critic of ...
010
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
#Personal: Happy New Year! Frohes Neues Jahr! Feliz Año Nuevo! Bonne Année! La mulți Ani! 🥂
030
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
#Georgia: Today, the government will enforce the mandate of the president it has appointed. Zurabishvili refuses to resign and is supported by the group of protesters who do not recognise the legitimacy or legality of the new president Kavelashvili. ⤵️
121
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
#EU_Enlargement: Two out of ten EU candidate countries are facing anti-government protests. In Serbia, protests were triggered by an incident at a Chinese-renovated train station in Novi Sad (as part of the Belt and Road Initiative), and have evolved into a protest against the Vucic regime. ⤵️
120
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
#Russia_Gas: After LNG to Spain for the first time in March, Gazprom is now expanding its market towards Italy where the first volumes were supplied these days. It should be noted that in Jan 2024 the EU adopted the 14th sanctions package which prohibits,
111
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
#Hybrid: Ukraine considers Telegram a problematic platform, primarily due to the lack of content moderation. This concern lies in the large number of followers of the platform by Ukrainians. A🧵:
132
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
#Hybrid: Ukraine considers Telegram a problematic platform, primarily due to the lack of content moderation. This concern lies in the large number of followers of the platform by Ukrainians. A🧵:
132
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
#Ukraine: Trump's opposition to the use of long-range missiles by Kyiv inside Russia confirms the nature of his intentions: de-escalation, on the one hand, and limitation of the ongoing military activities to Ukrainian soil.⤵️
201
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
Nicolas Tenzer @nicolastenzer.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
The Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review is out. It notably features @landsbergis.bsky.social, @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, @lykkefriis.bsky.social, @ambdanfried.bsky.social and yours truly. Key issue: Transatlantic relations and Europe's next steps in supporting Ukraine. www.eesc.lt/wp-content/u...
24213
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
#EasternEurope: Belarus seeks to capitalize on the future deployment of the Oreshnik ballistic missile for anti-West deterrence purposes. Russia gains a point in its strategic positioning by using Belarusian territory and at the expense of Belarusian sovereignty. Meanwhile, ⤵️
111
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
#FrozenConflicts: Abkhazia aims to control internet use to fight micro-mining of cryptocurrencies. Georgia's breakaway region faces a difficult dilemma: 1) curb illegal cryptocurrency mining activity by limiting internet access for the population;⤵️
120