Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible.  In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...

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Last week we precisely defined an agent: an LLM, in a harness, that calls tools repeatedly in a loop. This week we'll fix a few deliberate simplifications and explore the consequences of the harness i...

SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is pleased to announce that the latest newsletter is ready for download: This issue contains SJDM Fe…

How do memories of real-life events change over time, and why do some aspects persist while others fade? We propose that two basic properties of memory-nonconst

Research on belief formation has produced contradictory findings on whether and when communication between group members will improve the accuracy of numeric estimates such as economic forecasts, medi...

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be persuasive across a variety of contexts. But it remains unclear whether this persuasive power advantages truth over falsehood, or if LLMs can promote...

The AI Economy Institute (AIEI) is Microsoft’s flagship think tank dedicated to shaping an inclusive, trustworthy AI economy. We building a network of scholars and convening that network with our subj...