Prediction markets are a useful alternative forecasting tool, but their accuracy depends on how the market works and how actively it trades. Thin trading can weaken the signal, and trading restrictions can produce persistent pricing biases.
dkotok.substack.com/p/midterms-i...
dkotok.substack.com
Midterms in Florida's 16th: Gruters vs. Kirschner, Prediction Markets and a Dramatic Surprise
We will look at the midterms through a local lens. Specifically, Sydney Gruters versus Kelly Kirschner in the newly configured 16th Congressional District in Florida.