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David R. Kotok

@davidkotok.bsky.social
209 followers 59 following 833 posts

Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors ▫ Economist ▫ Fisherman ▫ Investor ▫ Author ▫ See my new book, "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks" www.thefedandtheflu.com.

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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 15h
The writing and research in this book are the culmination of over a half century’s focus on disease and epidemic and pandemic events and their economic impacts. www.thefedandtheflu.com #Pandemics #Economics #TheFed #FederalReserve #EconomicHistory #FinancialMarkets #Economy
thefedandtheflu.com
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks | How pandemics affect the economy
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks examines the economic impacts of pandemics across history and the response of the US Federal Reserve to COVID-19.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Enjoy Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review end-of-week update on #markets, equities, & bonds www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmYL...
youtube.com
"Why We're on the Bid Side in Munis" Week in Review
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
If the steeply downward backwardation curve materializes, inflation pressures will start to subside, and Warsh and the Fed may only need one more hike in rates. dkotok.substack.com/p/oil
dkotok.substack.com
Oil!
Oil prices may be spiking now, but the futures market is pricing a decline.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Children aren’t born to hate. They are taught to. On Oct 7, a look at a Gaza preschool play, the history of attacks on Israel, and why AI is dangerous when the sources it draws on are distorted by those who profess hate. dkotok.substack.com/p/hamas-and-... #AI #Misinformation #Hamas #October7
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
AI is a marvelous tool, and it is very dangerous in the hands of a miscreant user. Those who profess hate and death are miscreants. They are using these tools skillfully. dkotok.substack.com/p/hamas-and-... #Hamas #October7 #Antisemitism #AI #Misinformation
dkotok.substack.com
Hamas and Hate
In America, we remember 9/11; our parents remember Pearl Harbor. In Israel, October 7 is the date; parents there remember the Yom Kippur War 50 years earlier.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Monday Memo from Cumberland Advisors mailchi.mp/cumber.com/m... #Markets
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Hillsborough County is the center of Florida’s dengue outbreak. Aedes mosquitoes spread it and can bite day or night. Florida has not requested CDC disease investigators, though CDC has provided $800,000 in assistance. Read: dkotok.substack.com/p/dengue #CommunityHealth #HealthPreparedness
dkotok.substack.com
Dengue
Hillsborough County (Tampa) is ground zero in the American dengue virus outbreak. Here’s a quick look.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Kathleen Hays has a conversation about "Why AI Could Force the Fed to Hike" at her YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/shorts/woDj8... #markets #TheFed #InterestRates #AI #Inflation
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Why AI Could Force the Fed to Hike #substack #shorts
This is a clip from https://kathleenhays.substack.com/p/levy-amid-true-investment-boom-fed?utm_source=youtube_shorts See the full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sPKEDga9aQ #shorts #substack
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
What would actually count as an October surprise before the midterms? We look at a Strait of Hormuz agreement and a Canada trade reset—and why both would require a sharp reversal from current policy. Markets are already pricing a blue wave. dkotok.substack.com/p/october-su...
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The history of US presidential elections features numerous “October Surprises” — major news disclosures, scandals, or global events occurring late in the campaign cycle that have the potential to alter the course of the election. dkotok.substack.com/p/october-su...
dkotok.substack.com
October Surprise and the Midterms
American politics has a history of October surprises right before elections. October surprises happen in presidential election years — and they can happen in midterms. What choices are on the table?
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
On September 24, during the candle lighted White House state dinner, two things happened. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-scott-...
dkotok.substack.com
The Scott Bessent Trade: Second Edition
We examine a possible trade. Consult your adviser about details and decisions. This missive is an opinion and is not investment advice.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Today's Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review, end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds, is now available. "Taxable-Equivalent Yields Near 10%: The Case for High-Grade Munis" www.youtube.com/watch?v=USQL... #markets
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"Taxable-Equivalent Yields Near 10%: The Case for High-Grade Munis" Week in Review
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Markets dislike uncertainty and can adjust and accept outcomes. It is uncertainty that creates market volatility. But will uncertainty rise or fall with POTUS 47 in his unrestrained “lame duck” final two years? kotokreport.com/midterms-a-s... #Markets #Midterms
kotokreport.com
Midterms: A Series, Part 2
We discussed the midterms and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on Sept 22. This is the second commentary on midterms as part of a series.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
"The November 3 midterm election is exactly six weeks away. Early voting has begun or is about to begin in a number of states. We believe the major macro factors affecting the election are already largely baked in." More: kotokreport.com/midterms-a-s...
kotokreport.com
Midterms: A Series, Part 2
We discussed the midterms and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on Sept 22. This is the second commentary on midterms as part of a series.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Scott Bessent Trade: Second Edition As you read this technical summary, please ask yourself if the real yield for America is a victim of the $2 trillion annual Trump federal deficit with no end in sight. kotokreport.com/the-scott-be... #Treasuries #TIPS #RealYields #FixedIncome #Inflation
kotokreport.com
The Scott Bessent Trade: Second Edition
We examine a possible trade. Consult your adviser about details and decisions. This missive is an opinion and is not investment advice.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Here in Florida there is a significant change in the workforce, and we have been tracking it. We don’t like what we are seeing. We think it will show up dramatically in the midterms. dkotok.substack.com/p/haitian-wo... #economy #immigration #florida
dkotok.substack.com
Haitian Workers and Florida (Ground Zero)
The revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants is hitting Florida the hardest. Will the midterms reveal a voter rejection of this policy?
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review, their end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds, is now available. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuPt... #Markets
youtube.com
"Muni Chaos And Opportunity" Week in Review
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Pump prices are screaming. The oil futures curve is whispering the opposite. Record diesel, tight distillates, maxed refineries, U.S. exporting the shortage — and steep backwardation pointing toward ~$70 oil further out. dkotok.substack.com/p/oil #Oil #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #Diesel #Munis
dkotok.substack.com
Oil!
Oil prices may be spiking now, but the futures market is pricing a decline.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In the KotokReport Substack column, we have continually discussed how Credit Default Swap pricing is the high frequency alert system. Oracle news just validated CDS. Check for yourself. Subscribe free: dkotok.substack.com #CDS #Markets #SovereignRisk #USDebt #TreasuryMarket #Gold
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
LePage is trying to argue Trump tariffs are “temporary” and he is trying to placate the extremist MAHA-MAGA on one side while trying to avoid losing voters by being too extreme. He is failing, IMO. Sick kids from measles won’t help. dkotok.substack.com/p/zika-the-m... #Maine #Zika #Midterms
dkotok.substack.com
Zika, The Midterms, Maine.
One might think there is no connection between these subjects. And maybe they’re right. But maybe they’re wrong. We explore the latest measles epidemic breakout and how they relate.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
One might think Zika, measles, and the midterms have nothing in common. I argue the opposite: delayed responses, long-term suffering, and voters who have “had enough.” Updated free Zika pamphlet + on-the-ground notes from northern Maine. dkotok.substack.com/p/zika-the-m... #Zika #Maine #Measles
dkotok.substack.com
Zika, The Midterms, Maine.
One might think there is no connection between these subjects. And maybe they’re right. But maybe they’re wrong. We explore the latest measles epidemic breakout and how they relate.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
From Grand Lake Stream to Havana: Low-cost drones are changing the economics of war, affecting defense, energy and inflation. We share Jim Bianco's warning, then asks why Cuba is back on the U.S. policy radar. dkotok.substack.com/p/caracas-ha... #Geopolitics #Cuba #DefensePolicy #CampKotok
dkotok.substack.com
Caracas, Havana, & Grand Lake Stream, Maine
We lead with Jim Bianco’s remarks on how war is changing, drawing on discussion at Leen’s Lodge in August, followed by thoughts about Cuba, which was discussed under the Chatham House Rule.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
BlueSky We’ve been tracking the economic fallout from current deportation efforts. New numbers are striking. In cities with the biggest enforcement jumps, employment fell below trend right away and stayed there: dkotok.substack.com/p/deportatio...
dkotok.substack.com
Deportation Damage: Job Destruction
Mounting data shows that deporting immigrant workers erodes American jobs. TLRwire reports.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Like the Great Recession, ICE surges are providing us with opportunities to learn about trends we might prefer never to study." dkotok.substack.com/p/deportatio...
dkotok.substack.com
Deportation Damage: Job Destruction
Mounting data shows that deporting immigrant workers erodes American jobs. TLRwire reports.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We’ve been writing about the economic damage originating in the current US immigration/deportation process. With permission we are reproducing the Sept 14 edition of TLRwire, “Deporting jobs, coda.” We thank Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood. dkotok.substack.com/p/deportatio... #Immigration #ICERaids
dkotok.substack.com
Deportation Damage: Job Destruction
Mounting data shows that deporting immigrant workers erodes American jobs. TLRwire reports.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Rick Newman returned for his sixth Camp Kotok gathering and turned those conversations into a timely series on artificial intelligence, politics, the labor market, the national debt, and the Federal Reserve. dkotok.substack.com/p/reports-fr... #Markets #CampKotok
dkotok.substack.com
Reports from Camp Kotok: Rick Newman and Hannah Erin Lang
Seven articles and interviews from The Pinpoint Press, plus a Wall Street Journal report.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
As I see it, Warsh is being very clear about his intentions. He is giving guidance, not “forward guidance.” He knows he must stay on course with a 2% PCE inflation target or his credibility will be lost. dkotok.substack.com/p/warsh
dkotok.substack.com
Warsh!
The Trump honeymoon with Warsh is over. I add my view after sharing two other perspectives, from Jacob Frenkel and Bill Nelson.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
At our Camp Kotok gathering in Maine, we asked if Congress will amend the price of the gold certificate on the Fed’s balance sheet with the highest percentage number of “yes” answers to this question in the history of the annual #CampKotok survey. dkotok.substack.com/p/gold-centr... #Gold $GLD
dkotok.substack.com
Gold, Central Banks, Markets, & US Treasury Debt
We offer several views, including mine, on the theme of gold, money, and policy. Thanks to Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst) for his interview and to Lyric Hale (econVue) for her essay.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Gold, Central Banks, Markets, & US Treasury Debt Exploring several views on the theme of gold, money, & policy. Thanks to Chris Whalen (Institutional Risk Analyst) & to Lyric Hale (econVue) for contributions. dkotok.substack.com/p/gold-centr... #EconSky #Finance #Economics #GoldMarket #Policy
dkotok.substack.com
Gold, Central Banks, Markets, & US Treasury Debt
We offer several views, including mine, on the theme of gold, money, and policy. Thanks to Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst) for his interview and to Lyric Hale (econVue) for her essay.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Prolonged disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline could further tighten global energy supplies: www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGqY... #Markets #Oil
youtube.com
Oil Supply Risks Rise After Saudi Pipeline Attack
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West Pipeline as a precaution after multiple attacks, threatening a crucial route for moving crude to the Red Sea while bypassing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
This week's Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer, is available on YouTube www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uwk... #markets
youtube.com
"The Reality of Relative Strength" Week in Review
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
My remarks delivered on September 11, 2002, at a community ecumenical memorial service at St. Isidore Parish in Vineland, New Jersey. Having survived the 9/11 attacks, I am reminded once again how fortunate I am to be alive. dkotok.substack.com/p/911-rememb... #September11 #911Survivor #911Memorial
Graphic promoting a speech given on Sept 11, 2002 that states
WE WERE LUCKY.
THEY WERE NOT.
WE GOT OUT.
THEY DID NOT.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
9/11 Remembrance & Recollection dkotok.substack.com/p/911-rememb... #NeverForget #September11 #PatriotDay #911Survivor #911Memorial #RememberTheSky #25YearsLater
dkotok.substack.com
9/11 Remembrance & Recollection
Twenty-five years since 9/11, I reshare my personal reflections from September 11, 2002 and how lucky I am to be alive.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I would like to share the remarks I delivered on September 11, 2002, at a community ecumenical memorial service at St. Isidore Parish in Vineland, New Jersey. In revisiting them, I am reminded once again how fortunate I am to be alive. dkotok.substack.com/p/911-rememb... #NeverForget #September11
dkotok.substack.com
9/11 Remembrance & Recollection
Twenty-five years since 9/11, I reshare my personal reflections from September 11, 2002 and how lucky I am to be alive.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Detailed data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides a clearer look at how prices fluctuated across the major intermediate sectors leading up to August 2026 dkotok.substack.com/p/kotok-repo...
dkotok.substack.com
Kotok Report Quick Take — PPI is Hot!
Political dysfunction, Producer Price Index for intermediate demand, and canoe views of Grand Lake Stream, Maine.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Americans are short-term in their thinking when it comes to gold and most other assets. The rest of the world is not. For example, the rest of the world cares about the growing risk of a US debt default." www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira886
theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com
David Kotok: China, the Dollar and Bretton Woods 2.0
The difference between the Western markets that settle predominantly in cash and Asian markets where physical delivery is the norm is fundamental. A growing number of global central banks are…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
David Kotok: China, the Dollar and Bretton Woods 2.0 "The case for holding gold in investment portfolios is getting stronger by the day, yet Wall Street is still not entirely on board. How do you explain Wall Street’s reluctance..." www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira886 #Gold #China
theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com
David Kotok: China, the Dollar and Bretton Woods 2.0
The difference between the Western markets that settle predominantly in cash and Asian markets where physical delivery is the norm is fundamental. A growing number of global central banks are…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Inside the Modern Economy: Jim Bianco on Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Next Market Shock Great conversation around AI, Inflation, Interest Rates, Housing, The Fed & Kevin Warsh, plus a mention of #CampKotok www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4s8...
youtube.com
Inside the Modern Economy: Jim Bianco on Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Next Market Shock
Is the Fed's next move about to blindside the housing market? Is AI already in bubble territory, or is the real danger still a few years out? And why does the price of oil seem to move Trump's…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Imagine a “leaked” grand jury report that acknowledges alleged money transfer misconduct but fails to indict. Florida sets aside $10 million of federal Medicaid funds for the Hope Florida Foundation; but the money, quickly filtered through donations to nonprofits. dkotok.substack.com/p/hope-flori...
dkotok.substack.com
Hope Florida Scandal Bad for Business
It took a “leaked” grand jury report to reveal this scandal. The damage to Florida business will never be tallied. This scandal rivals the Teapot Dome scandal or Nixon 18½-minute tape scandal, IMO.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Hope Florida Scandal Bad for Business Where are they now? Key actors in Hope Florida scandal got promoted. A scathing grand jury report found officials in DeSantis’ administration “misappropriated” $10 million in taxpayer funds. dkotok.substack.com/p/hope-flori... #HopeFloridaScandal #DeSantis
dkotok.substack.com
Hope Florida Scandal Bad for Business
It took a “leaked” grand jury report to reveal this scandal. The damage to Florida business will never be tallied. This scandal rivals the Teapot Dome scandal or Nixon 18½-minute tape scandal, IMO.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The latest Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review, update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer, is now available. "Sentiment Struggles" Week in Review - www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsGc... #markets
youtube.com
"Sentiment Struggles" Week in Review
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This 25th anniversary year our Camp Kotok group helped the Downeast Lakes Land Trust. The story around this and the broader conservation movement may surprise you. dkotok.substack.com/p/camp-kotok... #CampKotok
dkotok.substack.com
Camp Kotok Answers a Challenge, a Fire Saves America, and L-MAGA vs. MAGA
This 25th anniversary year our Camp Kotok group helped the Downeast Lakes Land Trust. The story around this and the broader conservation movement may surprise you.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Special Update: "Higher Yields Overdone?" by Cumberland Advisors www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL7w... #markets #fixedincome
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Special Update: "Higher Yields Overdone?"
This is a special mid-week Bonds update with John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer. Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013 Have a great…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Quick Take: Proposals to Fund the Social Security Trust Fund, and What We Shouldn't Do dkotok.substack.com/p/quick-take... #SocialSecurity #FiscalPolicy #FederalReserve #USTreasury #GoldRevaluation #FederalDeficit #NationalDebt #EconomicPolicy #DavidKotok #KotokReport
dkotok.substack.com
Quick Take: Proposals to Fund the Social Security Trust Fund, and What We Shouldn't Do
We address idea of the taking a trillion dollars created out of thin air by the Federal Reserve by repricing the gold certificate on their books and immediately putting it in Social Security
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Trump’s first time ever use of Section 338 tariffs has raised risk to the defense investment sector because of the possible change in the Canadian F-35 future purchase decision. dkotok.substack.com/p/defenseaer... #defense #trade #tariffs #canada
dkotok.substack.com
Defense/Aerospace Sector Curve Ball
Trump’s first time ever use of Section 338 tariffs has raised risk to the defense investment sector because of the possible change in the Canadian F-35 future purchase decision.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
US House members have allowed an attack upon the nation’s emergency & hurricane warning data apparatus. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna is among them, one of the worst miscreants. I have now contributed $ to the campaign of Retired General Leela Gray who has never run for political office before.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Chris Whalen weighs in on "Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk" www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_bS... #markets #gold #economy
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Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk
In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Trump’s unleashing of Smoot-Hawley Section 338 triggered Canada’s retaliatory action.This is a rapidly changing landscape. There is no historical precedent. The economic research is general, and impact analysis is ramping up among professionals. dkotok.substack.com/p/in-a-trade... #TradeWar
dkotok.substack.com
In a Trade War, the Guns Are Pointed Inward
President Trump’s use of Great-Depression-era Smoot 338 tariffs, the first time ever in US history, has opened a Pandora’s Box that may alter the outcome of the midterms.
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mExP... #markets
youtube.com
"Tech Roars Back In Jackson Hole" Week in Review
Dear Clients & Friends, Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth,…
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David R. Kotok @davidkotok.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Jeremy Siegel: Why Rising Bond Yields Could Force Washington to Act www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWAD... #markets #tariffs #tradewar
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Jeremy Siegel: Why Rising Bond Yields Could Force Washington to Act
ABOUT THE EPISODE What are rising bond yields telling us about the U.S. economy—and could they eventually force Washington to address the country’s growing deficits? Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus…
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