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David J. Warne

@davidjwarne.bsky.social
375 followers 309 following 6 posts

Senior Lecturer in Statistical Data Science at QUT in Mathematics. I do inference in ecology and biology. Stochastic modelling and Bayesian computation. Opinions=mine

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Reposted by David J. Warne
Amie Albrecht @nomadpenguin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Hot off the heels of my last blog post, I read the coverage of last week's Fields Medallists. As usual, I wasn't looking for what they had done, but how they had done it. Read here: amiealbrecht.com/2026/07/28/play-is…
amiealbrecht.com
Play is not the opposite of ambition
I read the coverage of last week’s Fields Medallists, looking to understand how they work.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I have just resigned from the board of "Statistics and Computing", along with 17 other Associate Editors. This was a difficult decision: this great journal has published many tremendous articles under the leadership of EiC Ajay Jasra, and before him David Hand, Gilles Celeux, and Mark Girolami.
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David J. Warne @davidjwarne.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Happy to share a preprint co-authored with my talented Honours student Thomas Steele! Here we look at exact and approximate simulation of non-Markovian biochemical networks. We get 100x speed-up in Bayesian computation using a mix of both exact and approximate samples! arxiv.org/abs/2512.02478
arxiv.org
Simulation and inference methods for non-Markovian stochastic biochemical reaction networks
Stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks are widely used to capture intrinsic noise in cellular systems. The typical formulation of these models are based on Markov processes for which there...
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
So…about AI’s energy use… “…to create a five-second video, a newer AI model uses ‘about 3.4 million joules, more than 700 times the energy required to generate a high-quality image’. That's the equivalent of running a microwave for over an hour.”
mashable.com
Report: Creating a 5-second AI video is like running a microwave for an hour
That's a long time in the microwave.
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Joel Morris @gralefrit.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Right. Tax it to the fucking skies. Make it cost what it costs. Make it unfeasible to use. Then stop using it.
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Dr. Casey Fiesler @cfiesler.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
This is one of the worst violations of research ethics I've ever seen. Manipulating people in online communities using deception, without consent, is not "low risk" and, as evidenced by the discourse in this Reddit post, resulted in harm. Great thread from Sarah, and I have additional thoughts. 🧵
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Andrew Iwaniuk @evoneuro.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Come to Canada for graduate work: zero or few courses, no Trump, no ICE, no DOGE. (We have other problems but I won’t get into those here) #academicsky
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Michael Wong @miquai.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
When researchers cannot engage in legitimate scientific discourse out of fear that the government will strip away their livelihoods, we no longer live in a society that values freedom, truth, or progress.
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Michael Wong @miquai.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
I received a heartbreaking email today: A paper in a special issue I’m editing is being retracted because one of its authors is afraid of losing their job and their legal status in the U.S. if they publish a scientific study on evolution. Yes, on evolution, nature's engine of diversity.
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MACSYS @macsys.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Congrats to MACSYS Dep. Director @mjsimpson.bsky.social & his colleagues @apbrowning.bsky.social @profruthbaker.bsky.social @davidjwarne.bsky.social & @omaclaren.bsky.social - just awarded the Lewis Wolpert Prize for Best Paper by Journal of Theoretical Biology www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
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David J. Warne @davidjwarne.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Concerned about the environmental impact⚡💧 of AI/ML systems? Interested in doing a PhD in 🌞 Brisbane, Aus? I have PhD positions available exploring power and statistical efficiency in AI/ML/Stats! 👇 www.qut.edu.au/research/stu... www.qut.edu.au/research/stu... www.qut.edu.au/research/stu...
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Sarah T Roberts, PhD @ubiquity75.xyz · 10/02/2025
“As a professional statistician, I have an ethical responsibility to protect and the rights of data subjects and those directly affected by statistical practices; I have an ethical responsibility to stakeholders in collection, release, and dissemination of data; kuwisdelu.github.io/letter-on-pu...
kuwisdelu.github.io
Open Letter on Public Data
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Sebastian Raschka (rasbt) @rasbt.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Maybe a hot take, but what about the following advice to the next gen: Don't get an AI degree; the curriculum will be outdated before you graduate. Instead, study math, stats, or physics as your foundation, and stay current with AI through code-focused books, blogs, and papers.
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Noelle L’Etoile @girlsinscience.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Universities and Institutions have to push back NOW. When they threaten one group of scientific institutions, if we are silent, we will be next. HHMI and the other potential targets need to work with red state Unis to stall this illegal targeting in courts. www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
HHMI kills program aimed at boosting inclusivity in STEM education
“Inclusive excellence” program had committed $60 million to 104 institutions
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Joshua Bull @joshuabull.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
What fascinates me the most about people who think LLMs are in any way reliable is that they've clearly never asked an LLM for information on literally anything they know the answer to themselves 😅 For what it's worth, today is Monday, February 10, so third time lucky (fourth time not so much)
Screenshots of a short conversation with ChatGPT in which it guesses that today is most likely to be a Saturday, then a Sunday, then a Monday, then back to Sunday again...
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Dr. Robin Tanamachi 🌪️ @tornatrix.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
“Why do I need NOAA? I’ve got a weather app.” Is equivalent to asking “Why do I need farms? I can go to the supermarket.” www.noaa.gov/about-our-ag...
noaa.gov
About our agency
NOAA is an agency that enriches life through science. Our reach goes from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as we work to keep the public informed of the changing environment aro...
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Department of Statistics @oxfordstatistics.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
🌿 Green Action Week 2025 🌿 This week, we’re embracing sustainability! In our department, members are swapping plants, sharing plant-based cakes, and discussing green ideas with our Green Team. 🌍💚 #GreenActionWeek #Sustainability #Environment #OxfordUniversity
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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 09/02/2025
Microsoft's own research confirms something that was already pretty obvious: relying on a text generating machine to come up with answers erodes critical thinking, and is a method favoured by those who never liked doing critical thinking in the first place advait.org/files/lee_20...
advait.org
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David J. Warne @davidjwarne.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Anyone get a sense of irony from OpenAIs claim here? www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
OpenAI says Chinese rivals using its work for their AI apps
ChatGPT maker says it will need extra protection from US government, following emergence of Chinese rival, DeepSeek.
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Kyle Cranmer @kylecranmer.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Two talks at CERN today related to first results using simulation-based inference (likelihood-free inference) at the LHC. CMS (talk by Calandri): indico.cern.ch/event/138922... ATLAS (talk by Gosh): indico.cern.ch/event/1479992/ ATLAS paper: arxiv.org/abs/2412.01600
indico.cern.ch
The 21st Workshop of the LHC Higgs Working Group
The aim of the LHC Higgs Working Group (LHCHWG) is to collect and produce theoretical predictions relevant for Higgs physics in the Standard Model and beyond. Summaries of these activities have been m...
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Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Thread on need to fight for evidence-based policy - a response to Trump's cabinet picks. Based on new @bmj.com article by me, @martinmckee.bsky.social & @kentbuse.bsky.social TLDR: Now is the time to stand up for science, not appease those in power attacking it www.bmj.com/content/387/... 1/14
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Kyle Cranmer @kylecranmer.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
I'm very happy to see papers like this. We need more contributions to the underlying theory. Similarly, we need more theory to understand pros and cons of density estimation based methods (posterior or likelihood) to ratio-based methods (likelihood ratios and posterior-to-evidence ratio)
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SMB - Society for Mathematical Biology @smbmathbiology.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
Check out this #SMB #SocietyMathBio starter pack. This was the default Starter Pack set up on our feed, but we can add to this as well to help build the mathematical biology community on BlueSky. go.bsky.app/2sXtZV4
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Terry Hughes @profterryhughes.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
This video will break your heart if you care about nature. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Great Barrier Reef suffering ‘most severe’ coral bleaching on record – video
Marine researcher says widespread event is 'absolutely heartbreaking' and that Australia is 'running out of time' to save the reef
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Matthew Holden 🏳️‍🌈 @matthholden.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Nice starter pack of mathematical biologists by @joshuabull.bsky.social go.bsky.app/GVkxwBv
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Thesiswhisperer @thesiswhisperer.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
@rellypops.bsky.social dropping the wisdom - people often misunderstand self care, she says. "The self does not have to be selfish". Think about it as extended beyond you. Approach self care on the spirit of "what do I have to do for myself to be able to be there for others?"
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Marvin Schmitt @marvin-schmitt.com · 22/11/2024
The ✨ML Internship Feed✨ is here! @serge.belongie.com and I created this feed to compile internship opportunities in AI, ML, CV, NLP, and related areas. The feed is rule-based. Please help us improve the rules by sharing feedback 🧡 🔗 Link to the feed: bsky.app/profile/did:...
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BayesFlow @bayesflow.org · 22/11/2024
To celebrate the new beginnings on Bluesky, let's reminisce about one of our highlights from the old days: The unexpected shout-out by @fchollet.bsky.social that made everyone go crazy on the BayesFlow Slack server and led to a 15% increase in GitHub stars.
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Terry Hughes @profterryhughes.bsky.social · 19/03/2021
Utter anti-science bullshit from the Australian Financial Review. Next week - “Australia’s high-grade arsenic can improve your health.” www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-clima…
afr.com
How Australia’s high-grade coal can reduce global emissions
Shutting down the local industry would see developing nat...
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David J. Warne @davidjwarne.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Wonderful to see this paper out! It was a pleasure to work with David Frazier, @ryanpkelly.bsky.social and @chris-drovandi.bsky.social again!
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Matthew Holden 🏳️‍🌈 @matthholden.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
When do you need to collect more data? ... surprisingly, more data often has little value for decisions. Our new paper unravels why "Value of Information Analyses" can yield surprising results in #ecology doi.org/10.1111/2041... w @katehelmstedt.bsky.social in @methodsinecoevol.bsky.social 🌍
3D plots showing how the value of information is often low and only high when an analytic condition is met. See the paper in link for a full description  Plots showing how the value of information depends on the number of actions and states, with more actions and states often leading to higher value of information. See the paper in the link for a full description
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Umberto Picchini @upicchini.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
exciting new seminar series on "Post-Bayes" organised by Jeremias Knoblauch (he is not in Bluesky yet)
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Kyle Cranmer @kylecranmer.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Pretty excited by the recent uptick of science twitter migrating to blue sky. I haven’t been active here recently, but looking to change that!
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Paul Bürkner @paulbuerkner.com · 22/11/2024
The beta version of BayesFlow 2.0 is becoming more powerful and stable by the day. If you are curious about Amortized Bayesian Inference, give BayesFlow a try! github.com/bayesflow-or...
github.com
GitHub - bayesflow-org/bayesflow at dev
A Python library for amortized Bayesian workflows using generative neural networks. - GitHub - bayesflow-org/bayesflow at dev
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ARC Tracker @arc-tracker.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
To those prepping 2026 Discovery Projects EOIs while still waiting on 2025 outcomes: I don't know when they'll be released. I'm sorry. Remember, ARC *planned* this. Planned outcomes for 20–29Nov & 13Dec EOI deadline. They knew ~500 teams would now be wasting time prepping EOIs.
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
TLDR the short term outlook for covid is relatively good compared with the last two summers: historically low levels, slow growth, and no notable variants on the horizon. Topping your immunity up with a vaccine is never a bad idea if you're eligible www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-...
nzherald.co.nz
Omicron variant XEC ‘rising steadily’ in NZ as scientists watch for early signs of Christmas wave
Recently arrived XEC now accounts for about a quarter of Covid-19 cases around NZ.
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Marvin Schmitt @marvin-schmitt.com · 17/11/2024
I created a starter pack for simulation-based inference (aka. likelihood-free inference). Let me know if you’d like me to add you. go.bsky.app/GVnJRoK
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Ryan Kelly @ryanpkelly.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Thrilled to contribute to this work led by David Frazier providing theory for NPE/NLE in simulation-based inference. These methods are known to match the accuracy of ABC and BSL with fewer simulations, this paper rigorously shows why this can be achieved. arxiv.org/abs/2411.12068
arxiv.org
The Statistical Accuracy of Neural Posterior and Likelihood Estimation
Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, ...
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