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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 6h

What is this "WTO" you mention?

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 6h

"The trade wars that weren't" as it turns out, following on from "the deglobalisation that wasn't". Not that the dangers are fully gone, but might be a good idea to learn from the last few years.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 7h

All very well for the China hawks to put out papers demanding the EU takes fierce action, but there's no underlying strategy not least given a low tolerance for economic pain.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 7h

As I predicted, the EU and China look to be finding a deal. Trade wars turn out to be too painful all round in today's economy.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 8h

Where all of this leaves governments struggling for some semblance of economic control in today's world is harder to say, at the very least in need of new thinking as to strategy though.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 8h

What I find particularly interesting is how quickly the returns from weaponising choke points in an inter connected world has diminished, much more so than I'd expected, and a lesson to an EU very much third in terms of being an economic power. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | The Diminishing Returns of Choke-Point Diplomacy

Nations are rediscovering choke points as a foreign policy strategy. They should use them sparingly.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 8h

We have a fundamental difference of opinion about which is right side of the Pennines

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 9h

Obviously on a personal note I will not be able to win another @ukandeu.bsky.social Christmas quiz, but I still have the mug which is presumably a valuable heirloom now. On the upside, I may now hear less about Leeds United FC.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 9h

UK politics has not handled Brexit and its aftermath well, and closed mindedness towards expertise is unfortunately a part of that story, which @ukandeu.bsky.social closing will not help. We'll all keep doing our best individually, but there will be a large gap.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 9h

Particularly sad news I think because of the further shrinkage of academic influence over policy that this implies, and which can be seen elsewhere. @ukandeu.bsky.social brought a wide range of people together in a way that will be hard to replicate.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 10h

I am reminded today of the glorious victory for socialism that was the 1983 General Election result

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 14h

There wasn't much doubt that the UK and EU would reach agreement on linking carbon pricing schemes, of more interest as also with the SPS agreement is the scope of coverage, how it will be implemented, when, etc. www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

politico.eu

UK and EU reach Brexit agreement to link carbon emissions trading systems

The two sides are now just “tying a ribbon” on the agreement, according to one EU diplomat.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Absolutely and across Europe the same.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Europe needs to stop the denial, find new approaches, focus on economic strengths, and respond to the world as it now is. The UK is a part of that discussion. The growth fairy and magic money tree will not save us.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

EU China policy is a good example of the denial. Right now they have the momentum and are causing issues for industry. You may be able to slow down some of the impact, but Europe no longer has the strength to set the rules for the world. And China is a larger market.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Typically get two answers to these posts, one that it is all about growth which is easy - it isn't - and second why are you being such a eight winger demanding spending control. In other words, denial all round. And a high dose of entitlement.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Seeing news of various public spending cuts across Europe and it is all part of the story of a continent failing to come to terms with an interconnected world and ageing society in which competitiveness is declining and social demands rising.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I'll believe a politician gets Inheritance Tax when they talk process rather than level

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Hideous process even if you pay little or nothing.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Well, yes, we need to think through the implications, which will be mixed. But we're precisely not doing that right now, instead we're mostly dancing to the tune of the companies with qualities you described.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The UK has been in a negotiation with neighbouring countries since well before they in turn agreed to form a bloc, and that only intensifies in a modern inter-connected world.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

"reopen"? A large part of the UK's problems with the EU comes down to refusing to acknowledge over 1000 years of entangled history in favour of a far more recent (and dubious) Empire / Commonwealth story which could in some hands break down into a little Englander one

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

You are starting to convince me that I'm not quite as discriminated against, but I'm still not sure I'm getting the better of this - anyway fun discussion to liven up the day at a time suitable for both of us.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

More likely with rare earths than solar

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It also isn't "all about subsidies", we could match those and in some sectors we do, though generally agriculture and aviation to name but two. There is much more to China's rise, including their market now being larger than the EU, but also clearly greater state involvement.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

My 8 to 4.30 work hours attracted plenty of looks, yes I could have the early evening as long as I didn't want to go out and about, on the gym I defer to those who partake...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Minerals with finite supply obviously more vulnerable to price manipulation see e.g. oil

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

We need a far better debate about the impact of the Chinese productivity boom because it is real and demands response, but not the panic we actually see which assumes this is the end state of capitalism

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The allegation against China is that they will dominate production then increase prices once all competition is knocked out, which is flawed on several levels not least that they haven't actually behaved in this way, and another that it ignores knowledge diffusion.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Solar panels are always the giveaway that any accusations of "overcapacity" are basically "we resent China winning" since the price keeps coming down even though China dominates the market, and that is changing the world - for good. ourworldindata.org/grapher/sola... ustr.gov/sites/defaul...

ourworldindata.org

Solar photovoltaic panel prices

Average price of solar modules, expressed in US dollars per watt, adjusted for inflation.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Any brownie points for coming in early are negated by the evil looks when being the first to leave the office, even worse looks when being the first to leave the post-work drinks if they still happen, as for that whole evening economy, built around the night owls.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I wish to write the dissenting piece on why the world is set up for night owls and early risers get a bad deal.

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Reposted by David Henig

Kate Bevan @katebevan.com · 08/10/2026

oh god yes, just give me PRINTED WORDS.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If the rest are don't know / wouldn't vote that would make the final score remarkably similar to the 1975 referendum result, and the sage that is @columnist.bsky.social once again demonstrating his wisdom

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Reposted by David Henig

Kathy Love @kathylove.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Well worth reading David’s trenchant and realistic take on current UK/EU talks. They are not a high priority for the EU, which will naturally protect its and its members’ interests, so while there is no animosity toward the UK, the UK should not expect either immediate attention or any special deal.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Grateful to my pension provider for telling me that I could have a really significant annual income from them if I don't take it until aged 99...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Probably distracting to have a Bonzos sound track to work, but at least starting the day with a smile... "It's an odd boy who doesn't like sport..."

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I'm sceptical EEA can be the answer for the UK given the extent of rule taking in particular for financial services. But with a significant Le Pen / France caveat since that could throw all manner of plans. bsky.app/profile/lega...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Actually quite funny given the various stories about Germany's hardening or not approach to China

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Related, useful point particularly given the asks of UK business. "As a final observation, the absence of anyone arguing that the status quo is working points to medium-term instability in policy" bsky.app/profile/simo...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This time three years ago I was very confident there would be a workround on UK-EU electric vehicles, I'm less sure this time, the politics around China is less favourable and hence why the UK may have to put more on the table.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Good to have the UK back *if you're going to be helpful* was an early formulation I heard from an influential Brussels figure, and that I think would be the hardest part of the discussion, what does the EU need to hear to be confident it isn't just reopening a major psycho-drama.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

NB3 if in doubt just remember the last ten years - in every EU negotiation the UK has heard encouraging noises and ended up with less than our Ministers said they wanted. Be prepared for that.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

NB2 not to say the UK couldn't achieve rejoin, or indeed other things with the EU. Just expect it to be very tough and be ready to play the Brussels game with sufficient resources - including listening to the sceptics most of who it seems to me worked there longer than I did...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I had a call with a member state official earlier in the week who said half their colleagues were sceptical, I had a meeting a couple of weeks ago with a diplomat of another who said no before 25 years and 75% UK support. Anecdata. But general approach, positive in public, doubt in private.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

NB it is very difficult for politicians or indeed those who circle around them to understand that they really are not the lead players, but when it comes to EU relations with third countries, they really are not, at best they set the environment.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Needless to say, "there’s no discussion or negotiation that is made easier by publicly broadcasting it" is not how Brussels works. This is a multi-player game and for third countries, one played against the odds. Rejoin would require a big learning curve. www.politico.eu/article/uk-h...

politico.eu

UK hopeful of deal with EU on Made in Europe

Britain believes its Brexit trade deal offers protection if Brussels’ new rules shut out U.K. businesses.

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Hence why for the UK to achieve its aims in Brussels, whether that be on Made in Europe or even rejoin, it would need to be all over the Brussels bubble debate, well-informed, bringing positive ideas, arranging events, generally being positive. encompass-europe.com/comment/how-...

encompass-europe.com

How to achieve UK aims in Brussels

(a companion piece to everything Brussels really thinks about the UK) There are 27 countries present and permanently negotiating almost every policy area in Brussels. These are the member…

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