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Dave Hawkey

@davehawkey.bsky.social
75 followers 154 following 62 posts
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“For all that clever consultants dismiss in an age of economic insecurity, [first principles arguments about climate change] have done more in a few months for the politics of the issue than years of talking about green jobs have achieved.” strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/did-the-20...
strongmessagehere.substack.com
Did the 2026 heatwaves move public opinion?
Understanding climate’s ‘hot girl summer’
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Last week we published our latest report 'Rebuilding Scotland's New Politics', and we are already seeing the impact! www.ippr.org/articles/reb... Watch our latest video with testimonials from attendees at our recent event in parliament to discuss the report ⬇️
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bylinepodcast.bsky.social @bylinepodcast.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
New @bylinetimes.bsky.social podcast episode... Is the Scottish parliament doing the job it was created for? Not according to MSP's themselves. @goldbergradio.bsky.social hears from Paul Sweeney MSP and @davehawkey.bsky.social Listen: pod.fo/e/608293 Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tg7...
youtube.com
Unhappy At Holyrood
YouTube video by Byline Times TV
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
🚶‍♂️What happens when @stephenboydippr.bsky.social walks into a Scottish parliament committee room? 👮 @michaeljmarra.bsky.social says he won't "scroll on Twitter" because the police are in 👀 Some clean good fun was had at today's finance committee meeting 😄
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Its tempting to bemoan MSP calibre and bad behaviour. But parliament should be give newly elected amateur legislators the opportunity to become expert representatives. That this doesn't happen enough is partly MSPs' responsibility, but it's also about their context - parliament, media, etc.
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
📢 NEW REPORT📢 😥It's not just the public who are disillusioned with the politics and policymaking in Holyrood. MSPs themselves have been feeling the malasie. 💡We know because former high profile MSPs told us so in a series of “exit interviews”. Read more ⤵️ www.ippr.org/articles/reb...
ippr.org
Rebuilding Scotland's "New Politics": a constructive parliament to build trust in Scottish politics | IPPR
Twenty-seven years of devolution have disappointed hopes that the Scottish parliament would foster a fresh “new politics” in Scotland. Voter turnout collap
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
But I worry Panorama will be an example of "oh dearism", lamenting problems without understanding their origin, and in consequence leaving audiences with only superficial ideas about how problems could be tackled. Hope I'm wrong. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oh_Dear...
en.wikipedia.org
Adam Curtis - Wikipedia
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
On the basis of the BBC's write up it looks like the documentary will do a good job bringing to life the real problems created for people when the CMS gets it wrong. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Parents pushed to breaking point by Child Maintenance Service, BBC told
Some parents describe battles to make ex-partners pay, while others say there have been mistakes in calculating what they owe.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Hope tonight's BBC Panorama programme takes on these structural problems. We explored them in this report and recommended the CMS be overhauled to work for all separated families, not only those where things have got so bad they are in conflict and need help. opfs.org.uk/wp-content/u...
opfs.org.uk
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The child maintenance service is riddled with legacy "incentives" that aim to put separated families off using state funded support. That's why it has fees and barriers to getting help, and feels to many who use if like residual service offered begrudgingly.
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
🔥Most people are serious about climate change and want to see action around it. Why then is it there very little progress in Scotland? 🥵 Read @davehawkey.bsky.social in @thetimes.com Thunderer
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Wildfires do not happen in isolation🔥 The Scottish government has decided to duck the conversation about diet, land use, and what it all means for the climate and the extreme weather we are going to experience in the coming years 🔥🌧️ @davehawkey.bsky.social speaks to @lbc.co.uk News 📻
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
📺Speaking to @lewisgoodall.com on @lbc.co.uk Live, @davehawkey.bsky.social warned that Europe’s heatwaves and the wildfires in the Cairngorms are a stark reminder that climate extremes are here. 🌍🔥 The Scottish government must act now with a clear plan to prepare for what's coming. ⏳🌿
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
New PM and new Scottish parliament must seize “double reset” to deliver for the people and the planet. Read our full statement here ⤵️https://www.ippr.org/media-office/new-pm-and-new-scottish-parliament-must-seize-double-reset-to-deliver-for-people-and-planet-says-ippr-scotland
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The Scottish budget isn't under pressure due to excessive generosity in benefits. Scotland's population continues to get older, and that's an issue we can't hide away from. Was on BBC Radio Scotland speaking about this a couple of weeks ago.
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
After a lethargic campaign, a new @ipprscotland.bsky.social blog from @davehawkey.bsky.social reflects on the outcome and pre-election polling showing Scottish voters prefer a government reflecting their values over one focused on resolving issues in day-to-day life. www.ippr.org/articles/con...
ippr.org
Constructive coalitions? What the election means for the seventh session of the Scottish parliament | IPPR
In terms of the political makeup of the parliament, arguably little has changed: the SNP still lack a majority but continue to hold the dominant position;
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Balancing tax and spending over the seventh Parliament is going to be a difficult job. When we debate the impact of tax levels we need to keep a clear eye on how the need for public services is changing. www.scotsman.com/news/politic...
scotsman.com
Whoever becomes the next finance secretary has an unenviable challenge ahead
John Swinney will appoint a new finance secretary soon - but whoever gets the job as the unenviable task of grappling with a looming £5 billion black hole in the public finances
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
"There is a 'dispiriting retreat from the consensus across '21 manifestos that Scotland should play an ambitious role in the global fight against climate change'." @davehawkey.bsky.social quoted extensively in @vickyallan.bsky.social's sobering article⤵️ www.heraldscotland.com/news/2607071...
heraldscotland.com
Why has climate gone quiet in the 2026 Scottish election debate?
Climate may not be a bit vote-winner, but it's also not a big loser. So why are parties going quiet on this big challenge of our time?
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
With the Holyrood election less than a week away, @stephenboydippr.bsky.social writes for @prospectmagazine.co.uk on how Scotland's parties have failed to confront the scale of the challenge that awaits them in the next parliament. Read here ⬇️ www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/sco...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
Scotland needs renewal—but will these elections deliver it?
Parties from across the political spectrum are unable to face up to reality
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Manifestos are never perfect, but the 2026 Holyrood editions leave big holes where clear policy agendas are needed - on climate, on inequality. Pinning so much hope on growth without a clear story as to why it has been so disappointing since the financial crisis is a very risky strategy.
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
All 6 of the major parties have released their manifestos for the Holyrood election - but do they meet @ipprscotland.bsky.social's tests for what makes a good manifesto? In short - they all must try harder. Today's blog gets into the details www.ippr.org/articles/mus...
ippr.org
Must try harder: do the Holyrood 2026 manifestos meet our tests? | IPPR
Now that all the main parties have published their Holyrood 2026 election manifestos, we can assess how they perform against the five key tests we set out
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
With the starting gun fired on the 2026 Holyrood election, the public deserve an honest conversation about governing Scotland. Party manifestos will be soon be released - which begs the question: What makes a good Holyrood election manifesto in 2026? Here are 5 tests: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
ippr.org
What makes a good Holyrood 2026 manifesto? | IPPR
A good manifesto, in general terms, must surely blend a positive vision for the country with a credible and coherent policy programme which addresses voter
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
But the scale of Scotland's child poverty policies are far from enough to eradicate child poverty. Getting there will require us to recognise child poverty as a structural issue in an unequal society, not a phenomenon restricted to individual families. More here: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
ippr.org
What would it take to eradicate child poverty in Scotland? | IPPR
The Scottish government is set to publish a new set of child poverty statistics for 2024-25. While we expect some movement in the figures due to improvemen
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
This is not to say there aren't reasons to think child poverty policies are not having an impact. Other ways of interrogating the data, particularly modelling counterfactuals, consistently point to the Scottish Child Payment playing a significant role, cutting the child poverty rate by 4-5 points.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
What does all this mean? The combination of the methodology change, single-year noise and the pandemic mean the headline stats are not hugely reliable for understanding how child poverty is changing in Scotland.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The next average "2021-24" averages the same two data points plus the very low single-year estimate for 2023/24. Arguably, given the 2023/24 figure looks noisily low, the apparent drop between 2020-23 and 2021-24 is at least in part a reflection of this noise
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Data from 2020/21 is relatively low quality as the survey was hugely disrupted by the pandemic. This has been dealt with in past child poverty stats by omitting that year from averages. So "2020-23" is actually the average of estimates for just two years, 2021/22 and 2022/23.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Single-year figures are not helpful, and instead we should look to longer-time frames and in particular the trend. In the chart above I've followed SG statisticians' averaging approach, but here too there are complications that can mislead.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
However, single year estimates for Scotland are unreliable, and the ONS advises taking three-year averages. This plot shows how volatile the single-year estimates are - child poverty fell 11 points in 2023/24 and then rose 5 in 2024/25. At this resolution statistical noise is crowding out the signal
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
For child poverty in Scotland, the single-year estimate for 2023-24 has seen the biggest change. Old method: 22% New method: 16% 2023-24 was SG's interim target year, with child poverty supposed to be below 18%. Changing method is the difference between meeting and missing the target.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The fixes don't just affect the latest statistics, but actually change our picture of poverty rates in the past (from 2021-22 onwards).
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Today's stats include some fixes to these issues. The DWP has been able to link survey respondents to admin data on their benefits, improving accuracy in benefit reporting. But they haven't yet implemented fixes to correct under-counting - those will come in later releases.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The child poverty stats are derived from survey data. There have been long-running issues with the representation of benefits income in this data - both people under-reporting their benefits and the survey under-sampling benefit recipients. www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Family Resources Survey Transformation: integrating administrative data into the FRS
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The headline child poverty rate (21% average across financial years 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25) does not bode well for Scottish government to hit its 2030 target (10%). But with changes to the methodology behind the stats there is noise in the data that we should avoid over-interpreting.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The next average "2021-24" averages the same two data points plus the very low single-year estimate for 2023/24. Arguably, given the 2023/24 figure looks noisily low, the apparent drop between 2020-23 and 2021-24 is at least in part a reflection of this noise.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Data from 2020/21 is relatively low quality as the survey was hugely disrupted by the pandemic. This has been dealt with in past child poverty stats by omitting that year from averages. So "2020-23" is actually the average of estimates for just two years, 2021/22 and 2022/23.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Single-year figures are not helpful, and instead we should look to longer-time frames and in particular the trend. In the chart above I've followed SG statisticians' averaging approach, but here too there are complications that can mislead.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The fixes don't just affect the latest statistics, but actually change our picture of poverty rates in the past (from 2021-22 onwards).
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Today's stats include some fixes to these issues. The DWP has been able to link survey respondents to admin data on their benefits, improving accuracy in benefit reporting. But they haven't yet implemented fixes to correct under-counting - those will come in later releases.
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The child poverty stats are derived from survey data. There have been long-running issues with the representation of benefits income in this data - both people under-reporting their benefits and the survey under-sampling benefit recipients. www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Family Resources Survey Transformation: integrating administrative data into the FRS
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
With Scotland going into a major election, parties pledging to tackle child poverty must be clear that the issue is a structural feature of an unequal society. We respond to today's child poverty stats⤵️ www.ippr.org/media-office...
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
New child poverty stats are due tomorrow, but Scotland is already projected to miss its 2030 target by a wide margin. In this blog, @davehawkey.bsky.social looks at why progress has stalled and why reducing child poverty requires a more equal distribution of income⤵️ www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
ippr.org
What would it take to eradicate child poverty in Scotland? | IPPR
The Scottish government is set to publish a new set of child poverty statistics for 2024-25. While we expect some movement in the figures due to improvemen
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
For months, we have been digging into a big myth — that strong social protection holds back economic growth.🔍 Spoiler: it doesn’t.💪 We launch our findings tomorrow in our report 'More than a Safety Net'. Stay tuned.🚀 For now, hear it from @stephenboydippr.bsky.social ⤵️
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
📢 Starting today, we will publish a series of blogs as part of our project on Employment, Productivity and Reform in the Scottish Public Sector. First up, this blog by @davehawkey.bsky.social looking at teacher pay per pupil in Scotland in an international context. ⤵️ www.ippr.org/articles/app...
ippr.org
Apples and oranges? Scottish teachers’ pay in international context | IPPR
Ongoing pressures on the Scottish government budget are firing debate about the public sector paybill. Is the public sector in Scotland unmanageably big? A
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Our response to the Budget made the airwaves📻 @bbc5live.bsky.social led with our take on the Budget as “tepid” in conversation with Scotland’s Public Finance Minister Ivan McKee. 🎧👇
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IPPR Scotland @ipprscotland.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Scotland’s Budget raises ambition — but ducks the hard fiscal choices⚠️ 👶Eradicating child poverty isn’t cheap. 🌡️Climate action needs additional spend. 🏫Public services can’t improve on real-terms cuts. Read more in @stephenboydippr.bsky.social's blog here ⤵️ www.ippr.org/articles/pol...
ippr.org
Policy credibility and the Scottish Budget | IPPR
Rather than parse the fine detail of the budget (others, including our friends at FAI, are already doing this very effectively) this blog will zoom out to
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
*100 years. Still too late.
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Stephen Boyd @stephenboydippr.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Some early thoughts on the Scottish budget: Yet again, short-term politically driven tax changes with minimal real impact are prioritised over the development of a serious, long-term strategy to achieve the revenues necessary to deliver on the FM’s 4 key priorities. This can’t go on. 1/
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
We need a meaningful strategy to get our homes and other buildings ready for a future without fossil fuels. www.ippr.org/articles/no-...
ippr.org
No home left behind: Funding a just transition to clean heat in Scotland | IPPR
Retrofitting all homes by 2045 needs a massive acceleration in the number of households upgrading their energy efficiency and installing clean heating syst
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Dave Hawkey @davehawkey.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
That £1.3bn is slated to help 20,000 households per year. At that pace it'll take over 200 years to get through all of Scotland's homes. I need to do the calcs properly, but I *think* that puts net zero heating at some point *after* the 2045 target.
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