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Dan Pfeiffer

@danpfeiffer.bsky.social
108K followers 123 following 255 posts

Pod Save America, Obama White House, Message Box, and some books

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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Trump's taxpayer-funded campaign ads are very illegal, but they are so politically stupid that you have to wonder if Trump's team subconsciously wants to lose the election. Here’s why the ads are a gift to Democrats. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-ver...
messageboxnews.com
Trump’s Illegal and Politically Asinine Ad Campaign
The White House is spending more than $1 million of your money to air campaign ads
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Don't panic about the brand-new New York Times poll showing Susan Collins leading by 3 points. Here's why: messagebox.substack.com/p/no-one-sho...
messagebox.substack.com
No One Should Panic About the NYT Poll in Maine
Take the poll seriously, throw it in the average, and remember the political winds are still at Jackson's back
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We are 40 days out from the election. Trump's approval numbers are putrid. Democrats are fired up, Republicans are depressed, and Independents are pissed about the war and prices. Here's what you need to know about the battle for the House and Senate www.messageboxnews.com/p/40-days-ou...
messageboxnews.com
40 Days Out: Democrats Have the Edge in Both Chambers
We are now just 40 days from Election Day.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
After years and years of attacks from Trump, the press is FINALLY fighting back, but I have to ask — is it too little, too late? What would have happened if they collectively stood up to Trump back in his first term? messagebox.substack.com/p/the-press-...
messagebox.substack.com
The Press Fights Back. Is It Too Little, Too Late?
Networks are pulling their cameras after Trump banned CNN, MS NOW, and Politico.
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Commonwealth Club World Affairs @cwclub.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
WATCH: @thebulwark.com Publisher @sarahlongwell25.bsky.social, author of HOW TO EAT AN ELEPHANT, discussed partisan pachyderms @cwclub.bsky.social in San Francisco last week with @podsaveamerica.crooked.com co-host @danpfeiffer.bsky.social. youtu.be/KVEyzfJLXe0?... @stmartinspress.bsky.social
youtu.be
Sarah Longwell | How to Eat An Elephant: One voter at a time.
YouTube video by Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
A brand new poll shows that voters aren’t just pissed about the economy; they are rejecting every element of the Trump agenda. They don’t like the man; they don’t like what he’s done, and they absolutely hate his latest ideas. www.messageboxnews.com/p/nbc-poll-t...
messageboxnews.com
NBC Poll: The Midterms Are a Referendum on Trump, and He's Losing
A new poll finds voters are more motivated to oppose him than in 2018—and they're punishing every candidate tied to his agenda.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Just as fears about the existential threat of AI broke into the mainstream, Trump doubled down: no new guardrails needed. It's hard to overstate how politically toxic that position is. Here's why AI will be a big problem for the GOP this fall. messagebox.substack.com/p/ai-is-an-e...
messagebox.substack.com
AI Is an Existential Political Threat to the GOP
Trump just picked the wrong side of the issue of our time
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Democrats are understandably nervous about the Senate races in Michigan and Maine, but new CNN polls show the path to victory and offer reasons for real hope. Here’s what the numbers say: messagebox.substack.com/p/where-thin...
messagebox.substack.com
Where Things Stand in Two Must-Win Senate Races
New polls show Democrats narrowly ahead in Michigan and Maine — and the crosstabs are better than the discourse.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Trump thinks the solution to every problem is more Trump, even when Trump is the problem. This week's Trump-a-palooza/Midterm convention is the single largest in-kind contribution to Democrats in history. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/trump-a-pa...
messageboxnews.com
Trump-a-palooza Is a Gift to Democrats
The GOP is throwing Trump a convention in the middle of a midterm he's dragging down — and Democrats couldn't have scripted it better.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
JD Vance can't even seen authentic talking about his wife
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Trump just jammed a thoroughly unqualified candidate down the throats of South Carolina voters. Did he make a mistake, and do Dems now have a shot at winning the Senate seat in South Carolina? www.messageboxnews.com/p/did-trump-...
messageboxnews.com
Did Trump Just Put South Carolina in Play?
Three reasons this race might be closer than South Carolina's history suggests
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The 2028 race hasn’t even started, and the concept of “electability” is already breaking the brains of Democrats. Here’s how to think about it as we head into the election. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-2028-e...
messagebox.substack.com
The 2028 Electability Trap Roiling Democrats
Plus: swing voters vs. new voters, blue-wave math, Schumer, investigating Trump, and Erika Kirk on Summer House
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Three more Trump-endorsed candidates lost last night. It’s becoming clearer every day that the man is losing his grip on the GOP (and reality). Here’s why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/how-trumps...
messageboxnews.com
How Trump's Grip on the GOP Is Slipping — One Primary at a Time
He still wins 97% of his primaries. The exceptions are the story.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Trump has gifted Democrats an incredible issue to run on during the final stretch of the campaign, and I don’t hear enough Democrats talking about it messagebox.substack.com/p/trump-is-g...
messagebox.substack.com
Trump Is Giving Your Money to His Corporate Backers
He made you pay for illegal tariffs. Now he's refunding the corporations and stiffing you. Democrats should scream it from the rooftops.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I've seen plenty of Democrats panicking about a new Fox News poll that has @abdulelsayed.bsky.social trailing by 4 points in Michigan. I dug into the poll to see what's going on. Here's why I think Dems are still a slight favorite to win Michigan in November messagebox.substack.com/p/thoughts-o...
messagebox.substack.com
Thoughts on the Michigan Poll Freaking Out Democrats
Why the panic is understandable, why it's overblown, and how Abdul El-Sayed wins anyway.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
This is insane
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 14/08/2026
Newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche is speaking at a Trump rally to endorse Bruce Blakeman
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · 10/08/2026
"I hadn't really thought about the parallels between Obama and El-Sayed until you mentioned it…All we're missing is Mark Penn insinuating that El-Sayed did cocaine, and it would be an absolutely perfect analogy." @samsteindc.bsky.social talks to @danpfeiffer.bsky.social about El-Sayed's campaign.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Two Trump-backed candidates lost their primaries in embarrassing fashion. One lost to a guy who had already dropped out of the race. These losses are indicative of a trend you can see in the polling: Trump is slowly losing his stranglehold over the GOP base. www.messageboxnews.com/p/how-trumps...
messageboxnews.com
How Trump's Grip on the GOP Is Slipping — One Primary at a Time
He still wins 97% of his primaries. The exceptions are the story.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Tonight is the culmination of one of the most heated and expensive Democratic Senate primaries in history. The stakes are incredibly high, but they're perhaps highest for the Dem establishment, which threw everything it had at Abdul El-Sayed. www.messageboxnews.com/p/is-michiga...
messageboxnews.com
Is Michigan a Reckoning for the Democratic Establishment?
The Democratic Establishment went all in for Stevens, tonight we find out if it worked.
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Groundwork Collaborative @groundwork.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
This thread is excellent - but it’s somehow worse than you can imagine. What Trump is doing here is betting against Americans in the stock market. Let us explain how he’s doing this 👇
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Trump does so much crazy, corrupt shit that things can get lost. Last week, Truth Social announced a truly breathtaking pay-to-play scam that will allow Trump and all of his rich friends to get even richer, while everyone else is left holding the bag. messagebox.substack.com/p/trumps-mos...
messagebox.substack.com
Trump's Most Corrupt Act Yet (Seriously!)
He's selling Wall Street early access to market moving information
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Trump’s speech was incoherent, poorly delivered, and pretty dangerous. It was an act of complete political malpractice that will only exacerbate his immense political problems. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-spe...
messageboxnews.com
Trump's Speech Was Political Malpractice of the Highest Order
The 2026 midterms are about affordability. Trump just told the country that relitigating 2020 matters more.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Democrats tend to think politics is a contest of ideas, or a race to see who can knock on the most doors, but today’s politics is information warfare, pure and simple. Trump and the GOP are trying to take over the media; it's time Dems started fighting back. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-stu...
messageboxnews.com
Trump's Stunning Admission About CNN
What Trump said about CNN wasn't a gaffe. It was a confession.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Yesterday, Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign, shaking up the most interesting and consequential primary in the country. Here are my thoughts on why her campaign didn't take off, what happens next, and the coming electability debate over Abdul El-Sayed. www.messageboxnews.com/p/michigan-a...
messageboxnews.com
Michigan and the Fight for the Future of the Party
What Mallory McMorrow's exit means for Michigan's Senate primary
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
The polls are looking really bad for Trump and really good for Democrats, but can we trust the polls or are Democrats headed for yet another poll-induced heartbreak this Fall? Here are some thoughts on the reliability of polling in 2026 and beyond. www.messageboxnews.com/p/can-we-tru...
messageboxnews.com
Can We Trust the Polls in 2026?
Plus a discussion of the Electoral College and the Senate map
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Tuesday night's election results have sent shockwaves through the political system. Should the establishment panic? Are Dems really embracing socialism? Is the party moving left? Here are my answers to those important questions. www.messageboxnews.com/p/making-sen...
messageboxnews.com
Making Sense of the Shocking Elections in New York
What the socialist earthquake says about the party, the rise of the left, and whether Democratic leaders should panic
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Republicans desperately hope a deal with Iran will get done, the Strait of Hormuz will open, and voters will forget that Trump started (and lost) the dumbest war in history. That is wishful thinking. Here’s why the Iran War will hurt the GOP in November: www.messageboxnews.com/p/why-the-ir...
messageboxnews.com
Why the Iran War Will Still Cost Trump in November
Even if Trump strikes a deal with Iran, mush political damage has been done
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Something very dangerous happened last week, and it flew under the radar. Fox News is buying Roku, which will allow the Murdochs to control the home screens of 20% of the country's TVs. This has the potential to be very bad for democracy. Here's why: messagebox.substack.com/p/the-media-...
messagebox.substack.com
The Media Merger that Should Really Scare Democrats
The Murdochs are about to have massive influence on what millions of Americans watch
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Barack Obama's library opens today. A lot has changed since he came on the scene, but there is still a lot Dems can learn from Obama messagebox.substack.com/p/what-today...
messagebox.substack.com
What Today's Dems Can Still Learn from Obama
Why the most successful Democrat of his generation is worth studying again
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Despite all of the focus on ads, podcasts, and messaging, elections are decided by the big forces that shape American life. Here are the four forces that will determine the midterms this fall messagebox.substack.com/p/the-four-f...
messagebox.substack.com
The Four Forces That Will Decide the Midterms
Political junkies obsess over the tactics. The outcome will be decided by something bigger.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
By endorsing Ken Paxton, Trump gave Democrats a massive gift. 2026 will be our best shot to win Texas in a generation. Here’s why www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-case-f...
messageboxnews.com
The Republicans Just Nominated the One Guy Who Could Lose Texas
Ken Paxton is a scandal-plagued nominee. James Talarico is a generational talent. The structural environment is better than 2018. This is the shot.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Trump, his allies, and some credulous reporters are celebrating his big win over Thomas Massie (in a district Trump won by 35 points). They may have won this battle, but Trump and the GOP will likely pay a steep price for Trump's vengeance tour. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/everyone-t...
messageboxnews.com
Everyone Thinks Trump Won Last Night. They're Wrong
Trump's revenge tour just made the GOP's midterm problem a whole lot worse.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
The brand new NYT poll points towards a shellacking for the Republicans, driven by Trump’s putrid political standing, an unpopular war with Iran, and anger about his economic policies. www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-new-ny...
messageboxnews.com
The New NYT Poll Is Devastating News for Republicans
Trump's coalition is cracking, the Iran War is a drag, and Democrats hold a double-digit midterm lead.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Thank you so much. I am so excited about this project - a subscription service for people who work in communications and politics at any level. Get access to strategic guidance, polling analysis, messaging and communications guidance, and access to an incredible community of political pros.
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Kermit D Fraud @kermitdfraud.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Enjoyable quote from @danpfeiffer.bsky.social Nail. Head. open.substack.com/pub/messageb...
open.substack.com
Trump's Brand Was Strength. It's Gone.
More Americans now call him weak than strong. The strongman era is over.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The Virginia Supreme Court's ruling is a gut punch. There is no sugarcoating it. But all is not lost; Democrats can still win the House and are at least slight favorites to do so. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-virgin...
messageboxnews.com
The Virginia Ruling Was a Gut Punch. Democrats Can Still Win the House
This morning's ruling killed four Democratic pickups, but there's still hope
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Jill Lawrence @jilldlawrence.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
@danpfeiffer.bsky.social with a great message memo for Democrats on "misplaced Republican priorities—tax cuts for the rich, forever wars in the Middle East, and ballrooms for political and moneyed elites." And Trump is helping. He "can't shut up" about the ballroom. open.substack.com/pub/messageb...
open.substack.com
Why Trump's Ballroom Fixation is a Real Political Problem
Trump is focused on everything but lowering prices
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I can’t emphasize this enough. Trump’s ballroom is incredibly unpopular. People think it’s a dumb, decadent distraction. And now, Republicans want to spend your taxpayer dollars to build it. This is a midterm gift to Democrats www.messageboxnews.com/publish/post...
messageboxnews.com
Why Trump's Ballroom Fixation is a Real Political Problem
Trump is focused on everything but lowering prices
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
All of the headlines say that the Supreme Court just limited the Voting Rights Act. That’s wrong. The Court gave the GOP the permission to racially gerrymander. Here’s what it means www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-suprem...
messageboxnews.com
The Supreme Court Just Gave the GOP a Massive Gift
What today's ruling actually does, why it matters more than the headlines suggest, and which states are about to redraw their maps.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Ron DeSantis is trying to illegally gerrymander Florida to hold onto the GOP majority. But there's a very good chance that it is going to backfire in a big way. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/desantis-i...
messageboxnews.com
DeSantis Is Betting the House on Latino Voters Who've Already Left
A new Florida map could backfire for the Republicans
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Trump's poll numbers are worse than ever. Republicans are hoping that this is just a blip related to the Iran War and that Trump’s approval might go up before the midterms. Here’s why they are probably wrong. www.messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps...
messageboxnews.com
Why Trump's Poll Numbers Won't Get Better
An end to war in Iran won't solve Trump's political problems
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Reposted by Dan Pfeiffer
Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Some are claiming this gerrymandering escalation was triggered by NY not Texas. That’s false. The NY Dems case is comparable to what NC Republicans did — a battle between the legislature and the courts over the post-2020 map. What Texas did is something else: rip up a map they wanted for a new one.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Last night, Virginia Democrats sent an unmistakable message to the whole party - we want Democrats who will fight fire with fire and push the envelope to stop fascism in its tracks. www.messageboxnews.com/p/what-does-...
messageboxnews.com
What Does the Virginia Win Tell Us About November?
Democrats show what happens when you fight fire with fire
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
White working-class voters have been Trump’s most loyal supporters and the lifeblood of the MAGA movement. Even they are now fed up with the chaos, corruption, and high costs. Trump is now underwater with this critical group. Here’s what it means, www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-hidden...
messageboxnews.com
The Hidden Story: Trump Is Losing the MAGA Base
A 40-point swing in 14 months — and it's not the voters everyone's writing about.
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Pundits and the press keep saying that Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Joe Rogan turning on Trump doesn’t matter because MAGA voters are sticking with Trump. That could not be more wrong. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/why-the-ma...
messagebox.substack.com
Why the MAGA Media Revolt Matters Even More Than You Think
Trump's biggest political asset just became a liability
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Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
No shit
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