iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Why do people think the movie Jurassic Park holds special wisdom, rather than just being an entertaining film? This is not a serious argument against resurrecting dinosaurs.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

If anyone’s wondering what Marc Andreessen is up to, he recently posted this on Twitter:

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

“A mind is a terrible thing to waste” -UNCF “A mind is a terrible thing” -Marc Andreessen

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

In a large upset, LTF (the OpenAI-Andreessen super PAC) takes a major loss in IL-02, where they backed Jesse Jackson Jr. Notably Jackson is famously corrupt, and I wonder if LTF’s toxic AI money fed into existing negative sentiments towards him.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

I see Marc Andreessen has progressed from criticizing EAs and Catholics and is now railing against [checks notes] people who think

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Marc Andreessen losing all his money by investing in all the wrong AI companies - call that AI safety by default

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Reposted by Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name)

hikikomorphism @hikikomorphism.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

If you can substitute "hungry ghost trapped in a jar" for "AI" in a sentence it's probably a valid use case for LLMs. Take "I have a bunch of hungry ghosts in jars, they mainly write SQL queries for me". Sure. Reasonable use case. "My girlfriend is a hungry ghost I trapped in a jar"? No. Deranged.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

This *might* be an indication that Anthropic has gotten better at getting models to do longer tasks, specifically. If so, this could be the first signs that they’ve solved/are solving a complex bottleneck to more complex tasks. Or not. Unclear. But if so, that’s a big deal!

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

Third, the curve for Claude Opus 4.5 is “flatter” than previous models (it does relatively better at longer tasks compared to shorter). And the longest tasks it does are ones where it’s getting ~50%, b/c METR doesn’t have enough tasks that are long enough in their dataset…

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

You could argue we’re on a 4-month doubling time now instead of 7-month doubling time (I remain uncertain of what to expect over the next year), but regardless this is a continuation of previous progress, not a discontinuity

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

Second, on a log plot, note this is hardly above trend. Sure, it *could* represent a new trend, but it seems like every time there’s a model release that overperforms people think timelines get super short, & every time a model underperforms they think timelines get super long…

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

A few thoughts on Claude Opus 4.5: First off, in absolute terms, this is a pretty big step up. Anthropic is showing they have juice, and things are going faster than previously expected. At the very least, this should dispel all recent talk about how AI was entering a slowdown

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Reposted by Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name)

Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

A reminder that we're hiring for several really important roles at Coefficient Giving! Learn more here: coefficientgiving.org/about-us/ca...

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

AI accelerationists are in a bit of a bind, in that their views are deeply unpopular; by aggressively fighting for them they also raise the salience of AI politically, which hurts their cause

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Notably, the public has also shifted away from Republicans on the issue (up on the graph), coinciding with many Republicans pushing an anti-regulatory attitude towards AI. Voter now trust Dems & Rs about equally on the issue, indicating voters are up for grabs by either party

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

There’s still a long ways to go before AI is a top voter concern like health care or cost of living, but I’d expect this trend to continue as AI becomes more powerful. Politicians who side with wealthy tech donors over voter preferences may wind up regretting that decision

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Graph showing AI becoming higher salience to voters (more to the right on the graph). According to this data, AI is now higher salience than climate change, and approaching the salience of gas prices

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

I wonder if this is related to Trump’s recent shift from not caring about AI preemption to heavily pushing it. The OpenAI-Andreessen super PAC can spook rank-and-file members of Congress, but donating to Trump’s super PAC would build a stronger relationship w/ Trump, specifically

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Oh wow - OpenAI’s Greg Brockman was the single largest donor to Trump’s super PAC over the past 6 months. I knew OpenAI/Brockman were trying to flex their muscles politically to block all meaningful AI regulations, didn’t realize they had literally become Trump’s largest donor

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

For those who aren’t following the details, here are the relevant connections:

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

I think more OpenAI employees should be aware of the very bad-faith political activities that OpenAI is supporting through Greg Brockman’s funding of the Andreessen-OpenAI super PAC cluster (Twitter’s location verification has a known bug, but Leamer doesn’t care about the truth.)

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

I think further advancements may overcome these challenges, the way that reasoning models overcame previous challenges associated with reasoning. I don’t think the clearest shot toward AGI is literally just scaling up LLMs, but instead a combination of scale and modifications on current methods

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Now, I do think the automated AI R&D feedback loop will *eventually* speed things up a ton, but I don’t think this has really kicked off yet

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Meanwhile, various people predicted the trend was about to (or already did) become faster, e.g., due to paradigm shifts with reasoning models. I think those people's predictions were also off.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Viewing the graph on a linear scale demonstrate that claims of AI "hitting a wall" are clearly off. People *keep making* these claims, but while not every model release lives up to hype, no, AI has not hit a wall yet, and there's no indication it's about to, either

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Things are looking smoothly exponential for AI over the past several years, and I continue to think this is the best default assumption (until the AI R&D automation feedback loop eventually speeds everything up)

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Reposted by Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name)

Senator Dick Durbin @durbin.senate.gov · 19/11/2025

Republicans already tried to ban states’ ability to regulate AI in their Big, Ugly Bill. That ban was voted down 99-1. Their new political maneuver would be a free pass to Big Tech, and it must be stopped again.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

TBC I have no problem with a federal standard that both actually provides strong guardrails and preempts the states. In fact, I’d be for that. But Andreessen isn’t actually for federal rules; he just wants minimal rules

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

The guy who mocks the pope and funds gambling and porn apps thinks a ban on state AI laws is great! Seems like basically every normal person hates this idea - hopefully politicians recognize it for what it is and don’t side with Andreessen

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

Hot take but if AI accelerationists are actually worried about a patchwork of state regulations, they should work w/ those who want guardrails to craft serious federal rules. Don’t just try to sneak a standalone blanket moratorium into a must-pass bill behind closed doors

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Good collaborative piece between the authors of AI 2027 and those of AI as Normal Technology on areas of shared agreement t.co/h82vvrYRPM

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https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/common-ground-between-ai-2027-and

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

If you jog in these sneakers it’s called a training run

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

This whole Andreessen thing is a good reminder that you shouldn’t confuse vice with competence. Just because the guy is rude & subversive does not mean that he has intelligent things to say

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Feels like the dam has broken on people in the tech community airing grievances with Andreessen. Honestly makes me feel better about the direction of the tech community writ large

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

You might think that while Marc Andreessen is a jerk, at least he's been far ahead of the curve on AI. If you think that, though, you'd be wrong – Andreessen was pretty slow to realize what was happening with AI, and many of his predictions on the topic since have been way off

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Hot take but it was only a matter of time before Andreessen would go from hating on EAs to hating on Catholics. You can’t mock the idea of *trying to be a good person* without getting into fights with most value systems

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

The pope: “you should probably be a good person” Marc Andreessen: “this is an attack on me and everything I stand for”

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Andreessen really doubling down on mocking Catholics

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Andreessen is so dogmatically against working on decreasing risks from AI that he’s now mocking the pope for saying tech innovation “carries an ethical and spiritual weight” and that AI builders should “cultivate moral discernment as a fundamental part of their work”

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

I still expect some AI legislative negotiation to occur on the margins, or where industry is fine with it. But the AI industry may now effectively have a veto on almost all AI legislation, & previous battles (eg the moratorium) may be refought against a much stronger industry.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Normally, this is all kept in check by politicians sometimes being willing to spend political capital on what they want or what their staff wants. But crypto realized they could simply turn the dial up to 11. And AI interests just started running the same playbook.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

And congressional leadership, which effectively has a veto on all legislation, has similar incentives - they want to bring in lots of donor money for close races to help their party caucus (eg Senate Dems) win a majority. This creates more veto points on AI policy.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

And even if a handful of politicians are willing to support AI policy & risk industry spending against them, having just a few champions for AI policy won’t allow for passing legislation as long as the clear majority in Congress will vote against it.

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

It doesn’t matter to the political calculus if the public disagrees w/ what donors want if the public isn’t changing their votes based on it. The political incentives push toward chasing donor money, as money allows for running ads which (somewhat) help with winning elections

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Instead, they spend money on ads calculated to inflict maximum damage on their opponents (or to maximally boost their preferred candidates) based on issues that voters do care about, such as immigration, inflation, and healthcare

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Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel-eth.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Crucially, savvy political donors don’t make their political ads about their issue if it’s a low salience issue (or if their position is unpopular). Fairshake, for instance, does not make political ads about cryptocurrency. They recognize that voters don’t care about crypto...

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