Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 15h"Analysts expect all 11 S&P 500 sectors to deliver positive y/y growth in both revenues and earnings. Only once before, in Q2-2021, has such a perfect sweep occurred in the 25 years we've tracked the data." -Yardeni 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 16h"Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report earnings growth above 35% for Q3." -John Butters, FactSet 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 17h"Everyone is trying to position for 'the inevitable rebound rally.' Alternative scenario: Lower until the bottom pickers puke (mid-November?), THEN a bounce." -Jay Kaeppel, SentimenTrader 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 18h"Investors are aggressively betting on a sudden turnaround in interest rates, and they're using call options on exchange-traded funds tied to utilities stocks and long-dated Treasury bonds to do it." -MarketWatch via Neil Sethi 040
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 19h"Firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location." -Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed) 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"In 16 out of 19 years (84%), the S&P 500 saw gains in Q4." -Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt 040
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"Midterm years see the strongest Q4 on average, gaining +6.6%." -Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt 050
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"As much as the $70B hockey sticks charts were fun to look at, $50B of OpenAI ARR implies a similar y/y growth rate to Jul and Aug (225%+ y/y), which makes more sense. Still looks like a hockey stick..." -TMT Breakout 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"Positioning for bounces in non-AI Cyclicals requires finding stocks with less risk from AI agents - look for Cyclicals with more exposure to heavier physical assets ('HALO') ... the industry group exposures are helpful proxies for where AI agent risk is and isn't." 22V Research 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"Anyone concerned about US reliance on AI, look no further ... a basket of 42 AI stocks accounts for 60%-80% of all S&P earnings growth, price returns and capital spending since Jan 2024" -Michael Cembalest, JPMorgan 040
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"One of the main reasons so many breadth indicators are off the charts is because the concentration in the index is like nothing we've ever experienced. The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 are equal to the bottom 434. (67-500)" -Michael Batnick, Ritholtz 050
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"Despite the new 52-week high in the S&P 500, more than 75% of stocks are down double digits. and over 37% are down 20% or more." -Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026The spread between mean probability of leaving a job voluntarily and the mean probability losing a job is at its widest in nearly two years, which suggests labor-market confidence is improving. 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Whether the AI-driven bull market has made the S&P 500 more expensive depends on the valuation metric used." -S&P Global 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Hyperscalers now account for 3% of euro IG issuance, 10% of sterling IG issuance and 22% of Swiss franc IG issuance this year, compared with 8% of US IG corporate issuance" -Torsten Slok, Apollo 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"The gap between large growth stocks and small-cap value that has opened since the launch of ChatGPT is now yawning" -John Authers, BBG 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs in October has historically been a bullish signal for the remainder of the year" -Jeff Hirsch, Almanac Trader 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Net exposure on our prime book to Mag7 as a % of Total US exposure is near 22%, which is the highest on record since the start of 2022." -Shawn Tuteja, Goldman Sachs 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Defense sentiment is at one of the lowest levels in the last ten years. However, this alone isn't a great barometer for a mean reversion shift in Offense vs. Defense." -Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Consumers' expectations for year-ahead inflation rose to 3.9% in September, the highest in over 3 years. 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Very, very few households we just surveyed are interested in buying a home at 7.5% mortgage rates. Only time will tell if/when this housing logjam starts to break." -Rick Palacios Jr., John Burns 0144
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"With owners' equivalent rent alone making up roughly a quarter of the CPI basket, this re-acceleration in rents is a problem for the Fed because it puts upward pressure on inflation driven by higher rates." -Torsten Slok, Apollo 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"Companies are switching their top model more than ever. The monthly share of firms switching providers reached a record 8% in September." -Ara Kharazian, Ramp 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"The chart below shows three iterations of the Fed model and depending on your version of the equity P/E (forward, trailing, CAPE), the market is either still fine or getting closer to the danger zone." -Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"Global central banks remain on pace with gold accumulation this August, with reported net buying totalling 39t ... On a y-t-d basis, central banks have reported total purchases of 170t." -World Gold Council 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"Tell me why we're all supposed to freak out about CCC spreads blowing out when the other 90% of the junk bond market remains relatively calm. If this is the first domino, the rest of the market hasn't gotten the memo." -JC Parets, TrendLabs 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"ADP's weekly pulse has private employers adding an average of 23,750 jobs a week over the past four weeks, up from 20,000 the week before. That's a monthly pace near 100,000, well above the September BLS private number of +46,000." -Sean Emory, Avory & Co. 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"This is a cool historical chart that shows how the stock market typically peaks well before capex spending slows down in many of the biggest booms" -Ben Carlson, AWOCS 151
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"Fundamentally, higher borrowing costs make it less attractive to finance new assets. From a sentiment standpoint, REITs are sometimes viewed as bond proxies, so higher yields pressure share prices." -Larry Adam, Raymond James 021
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Through Friday's close, 0% (as in none) of Utilities were outperforming the S&P 500 YTD. via Duality Research 011
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"The S&P (dark line) is pinned near its highs while the S&P excluding AI stocks (SPXXAI) has fallen roughly 7% from its late-August peak, giving back its entire summer rally." -Brian Garrett, GS 000
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Tech vs. ex-Tech: "It's not just that the two sides are moving apart - they're moving apart more aggressively than at any point since this bull market began." -Duality Research 051
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026“Notice how many lines are at or very closer to multi-month lows ... It continues to be a tech dominated market and will remain so until the market begins to 'care' about anything else.” -Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"We have yet to see the uncertainty and extreme cross-asset volatility spill over into the equity vol market. Our US Vol Panic Index is still a sub 2/10." -Cullen Morgan, Goldman Sachs 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"CFTC data (through Sep 29th) shows that non-dealers have sold SPX futures for five of the last six weeks. Over that timeframe, they have sold -$68bn worth of futures. That marks one of the most aggressive bouts of selling on record." -Cullen Morgan, Goldman Sachs 000
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"The $40tn US debt problem is not at bond-shock territory yet: 5% UST yields still reflect nominal growth, but a rapid move to 6% alongside $150 oil could trigger a micro credit event." -Manish Kabra, SocGen 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 05/10/2026"U.S. natural gas production reached a record high in July 2026" -EIA 021
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 05/10/2026"Aggregated to the level of the labs, we see retention falling almost across the board from 2025 to 2026." -OpenRouter 051
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 05/10/2026"Analyst coverage and market cap are correlated" -Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq 030
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 05/10/2026"A third of U.S.-listed companies have one or zero analysts covering them" -Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq 040
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 03/10/2026"The Energy sector has never mattered more for stock market returns. Over the last 252-days (one year) the S&P 500 lost 5.5% on Energy up days, a record low. The index gained 21.3% on Energy down days, a record high." -Rob Anderson, NDR 031
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 03/10/2026"Interest rate-sensitive sectors are now the most oversold they have been in five years." -Real Investment Advice 031
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Short interest (as % of shares outstanding) in the Russell 2000 has risen to the 99.8th percentile. JPMorgna via Blake Millard 050
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 03/10/2026"Global food prices extended gains in September, reaching the highest since November 2022 as mounting geopolitical and weather disruptions roil the farm sector." -BBG 050
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 03/10/2026"Breakeven payroll growth--the growth we'd need to keep the unemployment rate unchanged--is functionally 0 right now, so in that context a +51K three-month trend is slightly expansionary." -Ernie Tedeschi, Stripe 131
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of September 2026 is 90,000." -John Butters, FactSet 010
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"Coding tasks are much more likely to be running on a model released in the last 60 days when compared to AI work in other fields like content writing, classification tagging, or customer support." -OpenRouter 040
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"Everyone is talking about AI on earnings calls ... The key question is whether all this talk about AI turns into real spending and measurable productivity gains." -Torsten Slok, Apollo 031
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"AI Spend FALLS in the latest Ramp AI Index. Price cuts at the frontier, in addition to cheaper and more efficient models at standard and lite levels, are pushing down the cost of using AI. Open source models remain <5% of business spend." -Ara Kharazian, Ramp 020
Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"Corporates are still largely in their Q3 earnings blackout, but the buyback window begins to reopen on October 15. From there, the corporate bid should build through earnings season and accelerate into November" -Scott Rubner, Citadel 040