iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Sports Info Solutions @sportsinfosolutions.com · 17/08/2026

On the latest Off The Charts Football Podcast, @vigmanoncampus.bsky.social and his colleagues tried to explain analytics in a way that anyone could understand. This is the 1-minute explanation of what our stat Total Points is and what we're trying to do in tracking it. tinyurl.com/analyticsall

021

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

interesting, I would think Keenan at this point in his career would be pinned to the slot? Why do you think he’d play the Z out of 11?

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Cool stuff J! is the bottom right total airyards vs total yards? Wouldn’t you want to plot completed air yards vs yards to illustrate YAC?

110

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Zachary Krueger @zkffb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Wait, Keaton Mitchell might be able to catch passes?

272

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Thread below on how I am working on approaching dynasty going forward. I have always operated with just Market values #1 and my opinions #3 (which is what most do) Now I am adding in Algorithmic trade values which are such a helpful guide/tool to use.

011

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

011

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

This valuation system is primarily focused on trading but can (and should) be used when drafting and trading as well. It's a systematic/structured way to make decisions in dynasty designed to still let you make your own choices, but with a safety net of data.

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The intrinsic value is how good you fundamentally think a player is with longevity factored in. It is strictly a guide to act on who to buy or sell.

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The algorithmic and market values can be used in 2 main ways: 1. Set a range for what a player is worth rather than a singular number (Helps in negotiations to be a little more flexible) 2. Identify potential overvalued/undervalued players in the market (Guides you to act, buying or selling)

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Refining what my dynasty process is going to look like more today. It's based on 3 different models of player value. 1. Market value 2. Algorithmic value: a prediction of where their market value is headed. 3. Intrinsic value (subjective): age adjusted opinion on player talent

120

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Pahowdy @pahowdy.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Yo, So with the help of @cplant.bsky.social and trashman.tint (on discord) and @tint_space on Twitter, I updated my NFL season total database All my other databases are still stuck at the end of the 2023 NFL season FYI, (2024 draft class for the rookie DB) docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

Pahowdy: NFL Database (2000-2023)

32310

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Stats and analytics are awesome, but everyone is using the same datapoints. The edge now is coming up with your OWN data, whether that's through tracking your observations, synthesizing content you listen to or modeling your own decision making.

031

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

My RB Prospect Highlight MTF/Att vs Weighted Highlight Grades

011

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Charted highlights of just about every relevant RB in the 2026 class's MTF broken down by type.

121

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Some of my Missed Tackle Forced charting from my 2025 RB class highlight grading. (Didn't chart all RBs in this class)

010

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

How much impact do position groupings have at the goal line? Across 2022-2025 10,299 offensive plays after filtering out FG/XP/no-play League TD rate: 29.2% Teams had highest TD rate when going with heavier packages. Having a single WR on the field, dropped the TD rate ~10 percentage points. 1/3

143

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Cooterdoodle @cooterdoodle.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

“Showing” is always more powerful than “telling”. comfort-moods.beehiiv.com/p/it-s-magic...

071

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

It looks like projections at WR influence ADP too much compared to how strongly they correlate with next year's PPG.

010

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Pickens in 2025: 4th highest in ESPNs Overall Score 2nd in NGS YACOE/Rec 1st in ESPNs YAC Score 10th in NGS CROE 9th in ESPNs Catch Score A 66 ESPN Open Score (50 is average) Almost an entirely green RP route tree…

020

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Denny Carter @dennycarter.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

I love to talk sports metrics online *and* I hate that every metrics conversation devolves into folks dismissing any metric that does not support their priors. That's what they're for! To make you think!

5586

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

I think my approach is a little different, think we'd have an interesting discussion!

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Shoutout @herms.bsky.social, definitely remember you being a big Flournoy guy when he was coming in as a prospect.

120

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

You can pretty easily get him for a 4th round rookie pick in dynasty... Some of my recent trades⬇️

010

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

In his 6 games with a 50%+ route share, Flournoy averaged 13.2 PPR PPG. (which would’ve ranked as a top-24 WR on the season) (Data via @koalatystats.bsky.social stat explorer)

220

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Am I the only one that confused PCA for Principle Component Analysis here at first?

000

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Christian Williams @cwilliams.thedevyroyale.com · 06/06/2026

Jay created a Dynasty Investor tool on the website. A data-based look at market price vs. production to evaluate value & get an edge in dynasty. Just really cool shit. www.thedevyroyale.xyz/dynasty-inve...

thedevyroyale.xyz

The Dynasty Investor — QB | The Devy Royale

Premium fantasy football rankings, trade calculator, ADP data, and NFL draft big board

211

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

i’m pretty sure @koalatystats.bsky.social has contract stuff accounted for in his analytical dynasty values. He could probably explain how it works better than I can.

010

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

A decision tree for picking/valuing rookies:

020

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

I think it’s worth consideration, no clue how you’d quantify it though.

110

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Using these models you're able to mathematically leverage your player talent opinions and historical data to come up with an expected future value for players. Combine this with their redraft value and BOOM there you have a model for total intrinsic dynasty value.

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

To estimate redraft value loss probability and future value loss probability you could use talent ratings, age (EYR), and position as inputs. (Dynasty and redraft market values, might be useful here too but that's TBD)

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Market implied future value is just a rough approximation of what the market thinks a player's future value is by subtracting redraft value from dynasty market values.

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

We can essentially create an expected value for both what their redraft value and future value look like in the next year. The formula for future value then looks like this: (Redraft value loss probability * redraft value) + (future value loss probability * market implied future value)

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

But finally I came to an answer on how to solve the future value problem... You can do it by modeling risk. Risk that a player will lose value in both their current and future value of the next year.

110

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Current value is very easy to quantify, you can just take any redraft value source, projections, redraft trade values, ADP etc. Future value is a bit harder to put a number to, and it's a problem I have been racking my brain trying to figure it out for months.

110

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

So it stems from this dynasty value map I created that breaks up value into two things (current and future value) - Current being just redraft value and future value being value a year or two out.

110

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Finally nailed down what I think is a good framework for intrinsic value in dynasty.

110

Reposted by Connor LaPlante

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

RB is a decent bit worse (after fiddling with it a lot this was the best I could get) Just very hard to isolate RB performance with data, most of the signal is just in volume.

011

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

RB is a decent bit worse (after fiddling with it a lot this was the best I could get) Just very hard to isolate RB performance with data, most of the signal is just in volume.

011

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The coolest thing about this is I didn't do any model training at all, just did some basic feature selection and PCA'd the top few stats. So the risk of overfitting is very low. This is just a combination of a few metrics, Recs/Gm, Tgts/Gm, Tgt% and WOPR.

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The model was pretty much perfect in explaining my opinion on the Bengals receiver room.

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Have tracked my talent opinions on players with a madden rating type of score over the last couple years. Created a model using data to explain my opinion on receiver talent (It's very simple and strongly correlated)

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Wait I think the following sentence you said actually makes it seem like you didn’t misspeak? Just to clarify is it A or B (what you originally said)

100

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

oh nevermind. I get it now, the phrasing confused me

000

Connor LaPlante @cplant.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

looks like the invite link is expired, can you send a new one? Interested to check this out.

100