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Colby Smith

@colbylsmith.bsky.social
14K followers 181 following 399 posts

@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com

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Reposted by Colby Smith
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The A.I. investment boom is contributing to inflation. It also appears nearly immune to high interest rates. That’s a challenging combination for the Fed — with potentially serious implications for the rest of the economy. With @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/05/b... #EconSky
nytimes.com
High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed. (Gift Article)
Rising borrowing costs are taking a toll on households and businesses. But they are doing little to dampen enthusiasm for investments in A.I. infrastructure, which are contributing to inflation.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
‘Honeymoon’s Over’: Warsh Under Pressure as Fed Weighs Raising Rates (Gift Article)
Kevin M. Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first address at the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson, Wyo., with U.S. government bond markets on edge and inflation risks resurfacing.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Resolving this does not require Warsh to provide specific guidance about the Fed’s policy moves in September and beyond, as he is staunchly opposed to doing. But a slight change of tack is required to begin to reset the narrative after a rocky start.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A lack of specifics so far on the above has created confusion both inside and outside the Fed, overshadowing his broader ambitions to enact sweeping change at the central bank.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
NEW: Warsh heads to Jackson Hole with an opportunity to articulate his own economic framework, the Fed's policy choices as it contends with inflation and how he is assessing seismic changes — such as productivity gains from AI — that could alter the country’s growth prospects in the years ahead.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The Treasury market rally is unraveling following Bessent’s surprise buyback announcement yesterday. Our piece on the new interventionist Treasury and how success will not come easy www.nytimes.com/2026/08/20/b... w/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Treasury Turns to Interventionist Tactics to Lower Interest Rates
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reinventing the government’s role in the world’s most important bond market.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Link to our write-up: nytimes.com/2026/08/12/b... @nytimes.com "I think the debate between hike or no hike will go on for a month and a half," says Riccardo Trezzi at research firm, Underlying Inflation. "It’s complicated to hold; it’s also complicated to hike, and it’s almost impossible to cut."
nytimes.com
Benign Inflation Data Offers Reprieve to Fed as It Weighs Rate Increase
The latest Consumer Price Index report helped to reinforce the patient approach adopted by many officials at the Federal Reserve about raising rates, but it has not resolved the debate altogether.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New inflation data showing a modest easing of price pressures in July has given the Fed some breathing room as it considers raising rates. But the prospect of higher borrowing costs remains firmly on the table as officials begin to lose patience about how long inflation has overshot their target
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
with @bencasselman.bsky.social !
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Policy Meetings (Gift Article)
The Federal Reserve has met at least eight times a year for decades. Reducing the number of meetings would represent the biggest change by Kevin M. Warsh since he became chairman.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Warsh spoke about the legal authorities the Fed must abide by regarding the minimum number of meetings it needs to hold in a year and asked officials to reach out to him with their thoughts, the people said
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
He left the impression that a revised schedule could be decided on before the next meeting in mid-September, even if the changes would not be carried out until later
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
SCOOP: Warsh is considering reducing the number of policy meetings the Fed holds each year. He raised the idea at this week's meeting, according to four people with knowledge of the situation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh’s Performance Falls Flat With Markets as Fed Holds Rates Steady (Gift Article)
Kevin M. Warsh has made taming inflation the top priority of his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman. But his hesitancy to embrace the possibility of higher borrowing costs has sparked a backlash.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
NEW: The Fed is in the business of "performance," Warsh said on Wednesday. It did not take long for markets to signal they were unhappy with his. Warsh reiterated tough talk on inflation but stopped short of embracing the prospects of higher rates, which many believe are necessary to address it
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Reposted by Colby Smith
Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Warsh's Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged despite growing pressure to more directly tackle inflation after five years of overshooting the central bank’s 2 percent target. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07...
nytimes.com
What to know about the Fed’s decision.
Kevin M. Warsh, presiding over his second meeting as chairman of the central bank, faces pressure to raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The Fed's July meeting has officially kicked off. Our preview of the surprisingly uncertain decision is here: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
The Fed’s New Chairman Faces His Biggest Test Yet
Kevin M. Warsh, who has said the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation, must decide whether he wants to push for an interest-rate increase at this week’s policy meeting.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Cooler Inflation May Not Be Enough to Stave Off Fed Rate Increases (Gift Article)
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting, but officials have not written off the possibility of a move soon after.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Warsh's task forces are important in determining next steps External advisers have been paired with a staffer from the board in DC and one from the regional banks, according to people familiar with the matter They include senior economists, many of whom have worked at the central bank for years
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Warsh has staked his reputation on delivering lower inflation, but he has yet to articulate whether that means eventually raising rates. By being vague, Mr. Warsh "invites the interpretation that he might believe that he can wish that outcome into existence," adds Wilcox.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
NEW: Cooler inflation data this week helped to quiet calls for a July rate hike, but Fed officials have not written off the possibility of a move soon after What the Fed ends up having to do depends on the trajectory for inflation, and some policymakers seem more patient than others
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
His testimony comes as the latest CPI report showed price pressures cooling sharply in June. "Core" prices were flat for the month and compared to the same time last year are 2.6 percent higher
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Warsh to set to reiterate to lawmakers on Tuesday his commitment to getting inflation down. He says the Fed will set policy "right" such that "the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh to Reiterate Fed’s Pledge to Get Inflation Down
Kevin M. Warsh, since becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve, has declined to say whether he supports higher interest rates to tame price pressures.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
WALLER: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term." "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Fed Official Warns of Higher Rates if Inflation Stays Elevated
Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said he needs to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident about the outlook.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
link: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
A Few Officials Signaled Support for Higher Rates at Warsh’s First Meeting
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A few Fed officials said there was a case for a rate hike at Warsh's first meeting, according to minutes from the June gathering. Officials are evenly split on the need for hikes to combat inflation and Warsh's opposition to forward guidance has left investors guessing on the next move
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
At Sintra, Warsh says further details on his five task forces will likely be announced next week. Our piece from earlier this week on how Warsh has already begun to change the Fed gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b...
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
"The AI boom is showing itself first and very prominently in the United States. I'd certainly rather have this problem where we have massive capital expenditures instead of thinking years back where we had financial engineering."
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Warsh on the AI boom: "We can see it on the demand side, but it's up to the central bank to decide whether it's inflationary"
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The Supreme Court's decision to let Cook stay on as a Fed governor is no doubt a victory for the central bank's independence. But the narrow ruling did not foreclose the president’s ability to try to dismiss officials in the future www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Cook is allowed to stay in her job, citing no due process. Court rules 5-4 with Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson in the majority.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Still, Warsh believes the Fed can't influence near-term inflation trends. What the Fed can instead determine is the trajectory of future inflation The policy choices the Fed makes are important in that regard, but so too is the perception that the Fed is seen as credible on its inflation pledge
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
A lot of these dynamics were captured in June's policy meeting. Procedurally, it followed the same structure as in the past but in terms of substance it was starkly different The streamlined statement and price stability pledge were instigated by Warsh, according to people familiar with the matter
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Reposted by Colby Smith
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Kevin Warsh has promised "regime change" at the Federal Reserve. His early weeks on the job have given some hints of what that could look like -- but with many questions still unanswered. From the deeply sourced @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... #EconSky
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New forecasts from Williams at the New York Fed: Expects real GDP growth around 2.25% this year through the next two years as the unemployment rate edges down to 4% in 2028 Fed to reach its 2% inflation target in 2028. Headline PCE to decline to 3.5% by year-end (4.1% as of May)
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
nytimes.com
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
One aspect of the inflation debate at the Fed centers around the best measure for underlying price pressures. Warsh has talked about the value of trimmed mean, which strips out outliers. One risk is that policymakers will focus on whichever measure gives them the answer they prefer
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
nytimes.com
U.S. Inflation Problems Are Far From Over
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
NEW: If the deal to end the Iran war holds, the worst of the recent inflation surge could soon be over. But the Fed’s inflation problem is far from fixed. The question officials are grappling with is just how patient they can afford to be in waiting for underlying price pressures to ease
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
More plaudits for Warsh during Bessent's interview with @cnbc.com this morning. He backed Warsh getting rid of forward guidance and his "tough" message on inflation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was the only Fed chair that Warsh singled out at his swearing-in ceremony back in May. From communications to alternative data, our piece on how Warsh is seeking to carry on his legacy www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh Wants the Fed to Send Fewer Signals. That Comes With Risks.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
NEW: Markets have been quick to fill a void left by Warsh at his first Fed meeting, having abstained from policy guidance. His approach has the benefit of carving out flexibility for the Fed. But it also raises the risk that he will not have as firm a grip on the narrative that takes hold
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Three things to watch at Warsh's first Fed meeting: 1) Is this the end of policy guidance from the Fed chair? 2) Just how does Warsh characterize the extent of the Fed's inflation problem? 3) What does Warsh mean by regime change? www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s June Meeting
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
NEW: At his first meeting as Fed chairman, Warsh confronts a tenuous balancing act His pledge to recast how the Fed communicates adds another complication. He'll do his best to avoid providing a steer on policy, an approach that risks stoking vol www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh Faces Tenuous Balancing Act in First Fed Meeting as Chairman
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The mild 0.2% monthly increase in core inflation in May will be viewed positively by officials at the Fed. Their primary concern is that price pressures caused by the war could start to broaden out beyond categories like food and energy www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06...
nytimes.com
Live Updates: Inflation Jumps as Iran War Intensifies Price Squeeze
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
In his first remarks after stepping down as Fed chair, Powell says the central bank is undergoing a “stress test” and says the removal of officials over policy disagreements would undermine its credibility www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
federalreserve.gov
Acceptance remarks by Governor Powell at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation
Thank you, Jack, for that kind introduction. It is a great privilege to be here tonight with you, Ambassador Kennedy, and your family. And thank you to the JFK
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Complicating the rates outlook is a likely shift in the Fed's comms. Warsh says officials talk too much and box themselves in That creates a self-reinforcing loop, Warsh believes. Instead of giving an independent judgment on the state of the economy, markets reflect what the Fed has signaled
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Waller: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon" He becomes the latest Fed official to endorse removing the easing bias from the statement and making clear that a rate hike is just as likely as a rate cut going forward
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