Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 1hGlobal surface temperatures can be quite volatile, but it's worth noting that October 6, 7 and 8 each set a new record for the highest global temperature on that day since records began in 1940. If you like records, there will a lot more record hottest days to come! Stay tuned! 613056
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 2hThe long-term rate of CO2 growth is currently at a record 24.35 ppm per decade. Net-zero by 2050? 2070? Ain't gonna' happen. Well, it might. But for another reason. 1314661
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/10/2026Breaking News! Code Yikes! As of Oct. 8, Antarctic sea-ice extent is more than 4.5 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 daily mean, ranking second lowest for the day behind Oct. 8, 2023. Data: ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/ext... 8249124
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/10/2026The more you know ... Your Friday water-cooler update, because even if you know all the facts, they still don' t care: 79436
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/10/2026According to the Climate 8-Ball, there is a 16% chance of doom by 2030, a 51% chance of doom by 2050 and an 87% chance of doom by 2100. The most likely source of doom is AI. The Climate 8-Ball informed me that it is not answering any questions about this graphic. 2216238
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/10/2026As of October 7, the preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature once again rose above 30.0°C. Below is a graph showing a timeline for the Niño 3.4 SST for every day from January 1, 1982 through yesterday. The Climate 8-Ball is busy calculating p(Doom). 913456
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/10/2026The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on a peak windspeed for hurricane Isaias of 110 mph. www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh... 1767
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/10/2026The latest CFSv2 plume for El Niño as of October 7th shows that this El Niño has about a 90% chance to persist into May, 2027 And I don't understand how any model run could show less than 3.4°C for November, unless some magic unicorn comes along. 1411748
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/10/2026Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine. 53840494
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/10/2026As the reflectivity (albedo) of Earth continues to set new record lows, more of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth system, increasing the amount of energy available to heat the oceans, atmosphere, and land, and to melt ice. 27403186
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/10/2026Breaking News! The latest ECMWF forecast for October continues to show the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature peaking around 4.0°C above the 1991-2020 average in December, with a strong El Niño lasting into Spring. The current Nino 3.4 anomaly is 3.3°C. charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea... 2220074
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026I have tickets to go hear opera outside in the park starting in about an hour. It's in an area without shade. I'm reconsidering. A moment ago ... 12747
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026Some folks were wondering why I posted a graph showing the total number of days over 16.0C for each year when this year is not yet over. Hopefully this graph answers the question: 1029689
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026The final results are in and 2026 came in 2nd place behind 2023 for the total number of days with global surface temperature above 16.0°C. 2023: 128 days 2026: 126 days Don't fret. There's always next year ... 29556235
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/10/2026With temperatures expected to peak possibly over 100°F (38°C) today at my house, you will forgive me if I enjoy the latest hallucination from ECMWF for October 12th, which shows a hurricane crashing into Santa Barbara: 98612
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/10/2026Antarctic sea-ice update... Not only is Antarctic sea-ice extent at a record daily low, extent just passed 4 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 mean. Can extent get back below 6 standard deviations, like we saw in 2023? Stay tuned! 724892
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/10/2026For those keeping track of Albedo, the latest CERES data for July shows a big downward jump. The record 12-month low was set towards the end of 2023, at the height of the 23/24 El Nino. Is a new record 12-month low coming? Stay tuned. 1110531
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 02/10/2026Breaking News! y-Axis Alert! With yesterday's preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature spiking to a new record at 29.975°C, the y-axis was raised to 30.5°C. Meanwhile, the Niño 3.4 anomaly now sits at 3.33°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Until tomorrow ... 32687327
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 02/10/2026Breaking News! Code Yikes! September 2026 finished second hottest on record, averaging 1.63°C above the 1850-1900 baseline. 2023 still holds the top spot, with an anomaly of 1.74°C. The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 1.80°C for October. Stay tuned! 39028
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 02/10/2026The July data just released by CERES shows the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) at *only* 1.22 million Hiroshimas per Day (HpD), down from 1.25 million HpD in June. The EEI should continue declining over the next few months as El Niño increases outgoing longwave radiation. 35816
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 01/10/2026Records come and records go. But this is one for the ages. The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly is now at a record 3.23°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This crushes the previous daily record set in 1982 by over 1.14°C. The Climate 8-ball is looking up. 541131534
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 01/10/2026Breaking News! Code UFB!!! Antarctic sea-ice extent just set a new record daily low on Sept. 30, beating the previous record set in 2023 by over 15,000 km². Current extent is 3.85 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 average. 1113251
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 30/09/2026The more you know. The global oceans are warming by the equivalent heat of about one million Hiroshima bombs per day. If wishes were fishes, they'd all be suffocating about now. 8192109
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 30/09/2026Breaking News! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly for Sept. 29th came in at 3.18°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks yet another record all-time high and the 123rd consecutive record daily high at 1.1°C above the previous daily record set in 1997. 38792441
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 29/09/2026I will be speaking tonight to the Fallbrook Climate Action Team via Zoom at 6:30 Pacific time. Feel free to join us! Here's the link to register: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi... 24510
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 28/09/2026Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today ~ Sign it! "Climate change, biodiversity loss, land and freshwater degradation, pollution, and unsustainable production and consumption are destabilizing the Earth system that supports all life." docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... 68348
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 28/09/2026For the last 3 days the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly has been hodling steady in record territory at about 3.10°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, well ahead of the previous record anomaly of 3.03°C set on November 19, 2015. The Climate 8-Ball thinks everything is fine. 1011433
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 28/09/2026Below is a snapshot of Antarctic sea-ice extent over the last 47 years on September 27th. I'm no expert, but there does appear to be a trend. I guess we'll have to wait another 47 years to see if the trend continues. Stay tuned. 26335110
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 27/09/2026Breaking News! Code: FUBAR!!! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature for September 25th was 29.822°C. This breaks the previous highest temperature ever recorded in the region of 29.815°C, set on November 17th, 2015. The Climate 8-ball is exiting, stage right. 46998478
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 26/09/2026I will be speaking live, via Zoom, on Tuesday, September 29th at 6:30pm Pacific time in the US to the Fallbrook Climate Action Team. I asked and was given permission to open the talk up to whoever wants to join. Here's the Zoom link to pre-register: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi... 58727
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 26/09/2026The preliminary sea-surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region just set a record 3.1°C above the 1991-2020 mean, but it's been very volatile. Best to wait for the 2-week window to pass. Conjecture: hurricanes are upwelling cooler waters in the Pacific, contributing to rapid SST changes. 410836
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 26/09/2026The next 24 hours are going to be interesting: 6538
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 26/09/2026The more you know: Penguins and polar bears are distant cousins, with a common relative somewhere around 310 to 315 million years ago, a lizard-like creature called an amniote. Oh, and Antarctic sea-ice extent is now second lowest on record for the date. 928176
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 25/09/2026As of September 22nd, the Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature is record hot, at 1.68°C (3.02°F) above the 1991-2020 mean. This breaks the previous record for the day set in 2024 by over 0.51°C (0.92°F). And no hurricanes! We live in interesting times. 917864
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 25/09/2026Not every day is a super-fun-happy-day. Likewise, not every day will set a new record for global surface temperature anomaly. September 23rd, ranked second warmest for the day, at 1.62°C above the pre-industrial baseline. The same day in 2023 was 1.91°C above pre-industrial. 58424
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 23/09/2026Antarctic sea-ice extent may have already peaked for the year, reaching the 3rd lowest maximum on record. Let's give it another week before calling in the squirrels. 412331
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026Continuing its voyage into uncharted waters, the latest preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly is now at a record 3.08°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Models expect the Nino 3.4 anomaly to continue rising into at least mid-November. Then there will be dragons. 43956463
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026With global temperatures quickly falling, this year saw 88 days with the global surface temperature above 16.5°C, the second most on record. The record holder is 2024, having 92 days above 16.5°C. The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 100 days above 16.5°C in 2027. 18387148
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026It looks like the Arctic melt season is done, with Arctic sea-ice extent hitting its annual minimum on Sept. 13th at 4,458,885 km², the 11th lowest minimum on record. For those who have been waiting for a Blue Ocean Event since 2012, there's always next year. Stay tuned! 98916
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 21/09/2026Yesterday's Nino 3.4 SST was 29.73°C (preliminary), setting the 114th consecutive daily record, 0.93°C higher than the previous daily high set in 2015 and 3.78σ above the 1991-2020 mean. The highest recorded sea-surface temperature for the Nino 3.4 region is 29.82°C, set on November 17, 2015. 12374180
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 21/09/2026For those wondering why the global temperature anomaly is not rising rapidly alongside the record El Nino, I have a graphic just for you. And yes, I could explain, but then that would take the fun away. Something about dragons, elves and unicorns maybe? 1012430
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 21/09/2026The more you know ... The potent greenhouse gas SF₆ (atmospheric sulfur hexafluoride) currently contributes about 1.05 ppm to the level of CO2-equivalent in the atmosphere, now at 548 ppm. gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_... 813743
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 20/09/2026Breaking News! Code FUBAR!!! Yesterday's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (preliminary) was a record 3.047°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, beating the previous record of 3.034°C set on November 19, 2015. It will take about 2 weeks to verify. Stay tuned! 601313599
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 18/09/2026It's Friday, and you know what that means? A pink fluffy unicorn dancing on a rainbow? No! It's time to share the latest update on the global surface temperature anomalies: 812321
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026I suppose one person's speculation trumps the IPCC. Glickson has gotten some things VERY wrong. And not just kind of wrong. VERY VERY wrong. He doesn't understand the basic mathematics of CO2e, let alone paleoclimatology. This, for example, is just stupid. web.archive.org/web/20250117... 020
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026'Absorbed Solar Radiation' is the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth that is not reflected back into space as shortwave radiation. Reduced cloud cover, less-bright clouds, melting polar ice and changing vegitation are all contributing to the recent spike. 913250
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 15/09/2026Breaking News! Code UFB!!! Yesterday's (preliminary) Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature just broke past 3.0°C above the 1991-2020 baseline! This marks the 108th consecutive daily record, is 1.07°C above the previous daily record set in 1997, and is 4.02σ above the baseline. 40829423
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/09/2026Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature is so close to a new daily record anomaly! Yesterday (September 13) was 2.97°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. November 19, 2025 holds the current daily record at 3.03°C above the baseline. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow? 912540
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/09/2026Antarctic sea-ice extent is not going to set a new record low maximum this year. The Climate 8-ball has a bad case of kurtosis. 4605