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Chris Oates

@chrisoates.bsky.social
457 followers 1.7K following 1.4K posts

Former state legislative candidate and political risk analyst. Breaking down what events in the world mean for Massachusetts. chrisoates.substack.com

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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 12h
Kyle Tharp wrote today about the fake newspapers on Facebook that are used to make ads seem more legit. I briefly considered something like this during my race (only as a design choice for issue ads), but it felt similar to misinformation. www.chaoticera.news/p/to-persuad... #mapoli
chaoticera.news
To persuade voters, campaigns and PACs make their own news brands
On both sides of the aisle, campaigns and political groups are spending big on news-looking brands to reach voters on Facebook.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
After running for office, I’m more supportive of All Party Primaries. 1. It makes November the election that matters 2. Getting attention and scrutiny in easier in September and October 3. We have the least competitive elections in the country chrisoates.substack.com/p/as-a-forme...
chrisoates.substack.com
As a former candidate for the State House, I’m yes on all-party primaries
Why I think they’d be an improvement
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Also, as a recent first time candidate, I really resent the argument from the No side that my chances being reduced (which I don’t think they would have been anyway) is more important than more voters being involved in picking their representatives. It’s one reason why I’m @yeson3ma.bsky.social
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What’s interesting about the All-Party Primaries is who is the main character in the arguments. The No side focuses on candidates. The Yes side focuses on the voters.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This is probably exacerbated by the people who shape the discourse - original and creative writers - probably have the least need for it. It's not like Bluesky has a bunch of massive accounts who manage customer support teams at large B2B companies.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
One of those stats that you know is bad, but then you see it and are constantly reminded just how bad.
Massachusetts turnout difference between primaries and general
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The new Big Dig podcast about how unions helped kill the Ted Kennedy-Richard Nixon health care plan in 1974 shows how a big part of politics is occasionally breaking with your typical allies. I worry that increased polarization/social media trends means intra-coalitional debate is even harder
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Top non-federal post and best performing with an engagement-to-follower ratio of 0.37 bsky.app/profile/ajca...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Top post: bsky.app/profile/warr...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Since Congress has the power of the purse, could it fund Justices’ salaries for 18 years and then fund senior status judges for a lifetime? Couldn’t force it but highly incentivize it?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Maybe I'm too cynical, but I always get suspicious when politicians show up to associate themselves with popular causes that they don't have any legislative power over.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
One of the surreal parts of being a candidate was being expected to walk picket lines. Like, sure, happy to do it, but I didn’t know whether I was helping anyone. Would like to have reporters find out which politicians truly care and which are opportunistic. chrisoates.substack.com/p/why-do-pol...
chrisoates.substack.com
Why do politicians walk picket lines?
I did it, but didn’t know if it helped anyone
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
BetMGM has an ad that the way to make sports interesting is to put money on it. And they ran that during playoff baseball that kids across the country were watching because they found it already interesting. Let's stop that. youtube.com/shorts/LHAz8...
youtube.com
Why is Jon Hamm promoting gambling as a way to feel alive?
YouTube video by Chris Oates
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What would be the difference for you among the Dem divisions? Any individuals that you'd put in the different categories?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
For the #mapoli crowd, a thought experiment for an upcoming newsletter. If we had proportional representation in the legislature and five parties emerged, what would those be? My guess: - MAGA Republicans - Charlie Baker Republicans - Labor Democrats - Indivisible Democrats - DSA
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Are hyperscalers sucking up the global capital that would otherwise be going to Massachusetts businesses? chrisoates.substack.com/p/are-ai-hyp...
chrisoates.substack.com
Are AI hyperscalers crowding out the Massachusetts economy?
Corporate debt yields are rising
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
AI is sucking up a huge amount of global capital, and that largely isnt being spent in Massachusetts. Not the biggest impact of the AI boom, but one to watch chrisoates.substack.com/p/are-ai-hyp...
chrisoates.substack.com
Are AI hyperscalers crowding out the Massachusetts economy?
Corporate debt yields are rising
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don't want to get everyone too excited, but tomorrow I'm publishing a newsletter about corporate debt yields. It's clearly what #mapoli has been looking for.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Candidates are using Substack for their fundraising email platform now?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Alert for the soccer nerds. France and Turkey are competing for the Unofficial World Championship right now. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unoffic...
en.wikipedia.org
Unofficial Football World Championships - Wikipedia
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Why are we framing a gas tax suspension as "relief", rather than a choice with trade-offs? Not sure, but there's a long history of talking about relief from taxes, starting with Richard Nixon in 1969 through George W. Bush in 2001.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Highest engagement-to-follower ratio bsky.app/profile/repm...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most engaged non-federal post bsky.app/profile/mass...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most engaged post: bsky.app/profile/warr...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky: Wordcloud
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This article from a first time candidate matches my experience, even in an open seat. Nearly every endorsement process asked me as much about my fundraising and path to victory as what I thought about the issues. pvdeye.org/political-en...
pvdeye.org
What Running for Office Taught Me About Advocacy Group Endorsements.
This year, I ran for State Representative in District 1, which includes the College Hill, Blackstone, and Wayland neighborhoods of the East Side.  Although I came up short, it was truly an invaluable ...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Both candidates for governor have proposed suspending the gas tax. My question is whether the coverage of the issue focus on the branch of government that actually controls the budget. substack.com/app-link/pos...
substack.com
Will the gas tax suspension pass?
Probably not
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Will the gas tax be suspended? I doubt it. What I’m looking for is whether the coverage focuses on the proposals from the gubernatorial candidates or the legislature - which is the branch of government that actually controls the budget. #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
By the end of my campaign, I was convinced that the most important thing we can do is fund local journalism. There are a lot of insiders who are complacent. A lot of outsiders who are unrealistic. We need professionals who can ask tough follow up questions throughout the race.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I was asked whether I'd support using the rainy day fund to cover Trump cuts to healthcare. My answer was that I didn't want to commit to how to use our reserves 14 months in advance of my first budget when I didn't know the economic conditions. That didn't go down well.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It's really strange. I wonder if it helps that he came up outside the existing system and built his campaign on his own charisma. MA competitive races are heavily shaped by endorsements and I found a lot of that process to be spending and policy commitments that may not be right at 5% yields.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Exactly. It's a weird place to be on stage saying "I'd love to tax ultra-rich more, but it still doesn't mean the state can do Medicare for All without the federal government's support."
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
At one debate, I said that the state wasn't constitutionally allowed to run deficits and a highly engaged person came up to me afterwards and said they didn't know that.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I wonder if it's in part because he's a mayor and has responsibility for delivery. I just ran for state legislature and I had to contend with my opponents saying "we'll just tax the rich for that" when asked about paying for things.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My baseline assessment: it gets proposed, kicked down the road, never happens.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
For the #mapoli crowd, does the gas tax suspension actually happen? Or is it just something that is proposed but which is expected to be killed by the legislature?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Fed raised interest rates and that means that housing in Massachusetts will get more costly because: 1. Mortgage rates rise 2. Homeowners are incentivized not to sell 3. New construction slows More on this at chrisoates.substack.com/p/the-fed-ra... #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
What does a Fed rate hike mean for Massachusetts? More expensive homes due to: 1. Higher mortgage rates 2. Fewer people selling their homes 3. Less new construction chrisoates.substack.com/p/the-fed-ra... #mapoli
chrisoates.substack.com
The Fed raised interest rates - what does that mean for MA?
Homes are getting more expensive
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Presumably the antitrust exemption that sports teams have don’t extend to the stadiums themselves.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The most important chart of the day. Interest rates likely going up again and holding through Q2 2027.
Fed Dot Plot showing interest rate projections
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
But I'd love for everyone to be my assignment editor. This is an experiment in a new style of journalism, so please let me know what questions you have. Together, we can try to fill some of the gaps in the gargantuan swiss cheese that is our state and local informational environment.
chrisoates.substack.com
From campaigning to explaining
Why I’m focusing on talking about the news
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
During the campaign, I saw first-hand the decline of local news. Since I was a political risk analyst before I was a candidate, I'm going to start breaking down what's going on in the world and what it means for Massachusetts. chrisoates.substack.com/p/from-campa...
chrisoates.substack.com
From campaigning to explaining
Why I’m focusing on talking about the news
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
It's a big opening for a company that could use this as a loss leader. Or maybe a podcast?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
My main takeaway from my first time as a candidate. Our standards for state legislative office are waaaaaay too low. www.gottaknowmedford.com/opinion-vote...
gottaknowmedford.com
OPINION: Voters deserve higher standards from their candidates
As a first-time candidate for the State House, this moment represents what I’ve come to see as the biggest problem in Massachusetts politics. Candidates for public office face far, far too little scru...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I’m the only candidate in my race without a campaign finance incident. I didn’t think that would be a differentiator. I’ve been told voters don’t care, but I think they do. If you can’t keep your word or follow the rules when everyone’s watching, what can we expect when they aren’t?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I'm running for state rep in Massachusetts and if there were one thing I wish we had to make this a higher quality race is 5 times the number of journalists covering us.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
True. My plan is a primary around June 15 that advances 4 per seat to the general in November
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Or we could also move to Top 4 + RCV (like Alaska) so that November is what counts.
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