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Chris Oates

@chrisoates.bsky.social
463 followers 1.7K following 1.4K posts

Former state legislative candidate and political risk analyst. Breaking down what events in the world mean for Massachusetts. chrisoates.substack.com

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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/10/2026
I don't remember any other Administration referring to a Cabinet Secretary as [President's] Secretary in official press releases. Can anyone in political comms recall something similar?
Transportation Dept press releases with Trump as the first name everywhere
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/10/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky. Word cloud:
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#mapoli bluesky wordcloud
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
More people turn out to vote for the general election in November, when many of our races are already decided, than turn out for the primary election in September for the decision. Question 3 would help to change that so that more of us are involved in choosing our government.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
One of those stats that you know is bad, but then you see it and are constantly reminded just how bad.
Massachusetts turnout difference between primaries and general
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Maybe I'm too cynical, but I always get suspicious when politicians show up to associate themselves with popular causes that they don't have any legislative power over.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Candidates are using Substack for their fundraising email platform now?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Why are we framing a gas tax suspension as "relief", rather than a choice with trade-offs? Not sure, but there's a long history of talking about relief from taxes, starting with Richard Nixon in 1969 through George W. Bush in 2001.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky: Wordcloud
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Will the gas tax be suspended? I doubt it. What I’m looking for is whether the coverage focuses on the proposals from the gubernatorial candidates or the legislature - which is the branch of government that actually controls the budget. #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Fed raised interest rates and that means that housing in Massachusetts will get more costly because: 1. Mortgage rates rise 2. Homeowners are incentivized not to sell 3. New construction slows More on this at chrisoates.substack.com/p/the-fed-ra... #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The most important chart of the day. Interest rates likely going up again and holding through Q2 2027.
Fed Dot Plot showing interest rate projections
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I’m the only candidate in my race without a campaign finance incident. I didn’t think that would be a differentiator. I’ve been told voters don’t care, but I think they do. If you can’t keep your word or follow the rules when everyone’s watching, what can we expect when they aren’t?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Massachusetts has a real problem with our lack of democracy. We have the least competitive legislature in the country and we even have open seats with only one candidate running. I'm proposing ten policies that could fix this, from public financing to term limits. chrisoates.org/people-decide
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The Graham Platner story is many things and one of them is a reminder of how quickly things can change in politics. The impossible can be inevitable overnight and it's why we should never give up working on the issues we care about, even when it seems difficult.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
We're going to be losing students over the next 25 years, which is why we should be thinking about that now, before it's too late to take action that isn't destabilizing to our school systems.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
This campaign is making me into a Founding Fathers level of believing in the importance of character in public office. The most important question for any candidate is whether they want to do the job or have the job.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Spoke with a convenience store owner today and she's starting to see spending go down. Worried that candidates running today on big promises may end up presiding over budget cuts. It's why seriousness in government matters: secure.actblue.com/donate/chris...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
As it turns out, state rep races don't set up their own debates. So if you are a local org in Somerville or Medford, set one up and I'll be there!
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
We're running a transparent race, so we're telling you where your money goes. This week, it's to our first mailer to the district. Every $100 buys 160 postcards, which is 4 times the margin in a nearby 2024 race. secure.actblue.com/donate/chris... #somerville #medford #elections #mapoli
We set a target this week for $6,000 to fund our first mailer to the district. We’re 95% of the way there.

Chip in $10, $50, $100 or whatever you can give to help us close this out today!
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
This is absurd. They’re behind Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google already. If I’m doing enterprise work, there’s no way I’d choose Grok. Even if AI does boom, this is not remotely realistic.
Goldman expects revenues from SpaceX’s AI division to rise to $322bn by 2030 from $3.2bn in 2025, according to forecasts discussed by the Wall Street bank with a potential investor in the deal.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Journalism is the foundation of democracy and we need more of it. How to rebuild? My preference would be $250 tax credits for subscriptions to local outlets to help people not only get good reporting, but get in the habit of paying for it. #mapoli chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/how-to-reb...
My plan for Massachusetts
Rep. Lindsay Sabadosa of Northampton has introduced a bill to the State House that would provide tax credits for subscriptions, payroll credits, and advertising credits. It was sent to study in April 2026.

If elected, I’ll cosponsor this bill and do my best to put it into effect. If I had to choose - say if there were limited budget and only one of the provisions could go through - I’d support the subscription tax credit, which would not only help newsrooms expand, but also get consumers into the habit of paying for news, which the 2010s broke as free online news became the default way of learning about the world.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Build a $2 billion budget for Massachusetts and tell me what your priorities are: budget-game-xi.vercel.app. I'm tired of candidates promising the world when everyone knows they can't deliver on everything, so tell me what you want to be included when budgets get squeezed.
Funding options for with a list of line items, their cost, and how much you've spent already
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Running for office in 2026 is what they call in rugby a hospital pass. Next year there's an $837 million deficit projected for the MBTA, amid a possible decline in Fair Share revenues and interest rate hikes. More on that here: chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/the-mbta-d...
The MBTA deficit will be a problem for anyone elected this year
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
I'm officially on the ballot. It feels much less like a celebration and more like the start of a mountain of work. Feeling good that we've built the machine of the campaign and we know why we're doing this. Now it's a 3 month sprint to contact as many voters as possible.
Ballot nomination papers with Beacon Hill in the background
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
It’s called message discipline
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Anyone in the housing or political digital media space have a good reason why the Instagram algo thinks housing is a male-dominated issue? Data from a reel about building more in the Boston area.
Men are 87% of viewers on a reel about housing
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Massachusetts cares about climate, but according to the EIA, in 2023 we relied on fossil fuels for about 95% of our energy. Even within electricity generation, it was 85% fossil fuels, mainly natural gas. California shows what solar and batteries, as well as wind and hydro, can do for a grid.
Energy mix of Massachusetts. We were dependent on fossil fuels for about 95% of our energy in 2023.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Amazing to see algorithmic media at work. One of these are the analytics for a TikTok video on housing policy. The other is about childcare costs. Since their algo pushes content to who it thinks wants to see it, this is a platform effect than just what viewers want.
Male 72 Female 26 video breakdown by genderMale 39 Female 56 video breakdown by gender
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Being interviewed as a candidate for print can be a daunting task, not knowing which of your words will be quoted. But state races aren't like the presidency, where every word is parsed. Here, getting any coverage is difficult. chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/being-inte...
Being interviewed: a conversation with stakes. Cover of a substack article.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Palm cards! Designed by myself with two main objectives: 1. Bright name! I started this race with name ID hovering area zero so I want that to jump out. 2. Family picture rather than professional. I want people to know what I care about and I’m sure I’ll show my policy chops as the campaign goes
Me holding the palm cards for the campaign
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
My PhD dissertation is back into relevancy. What’s interesting is how little has changed in some aspects from 03-05 (my case studies) to today, despite huge changes in the world. US still wants EU to have strong militaries but not too independent.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
About to collect the last batch of signatures I need to get on the ballot, but I'll leave this depressing chart here, from a newsletter I'll be publishing tomorrow.
Ratio of indexed house price to income. Massachusetts is worse than the rest of the country.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Palm cards are the heart of a campaign's lit, but they are trying to do three separate goals: 1. Name ID 2. Persuade on candidate 3. Persuade on platform Those obviously can lead to conflicts on what to prioritize. Luckily for me experience in startups provides the answer to this dilemma...
Chris Oates for State Rep front of palm cardChris Oates for State Rep back of palm card. Text is 

I grew up in Canton, Mass., went to college in
Rhode Island, and completed a PhD in England.
I‘ve worked on the Ranked Choice Voting
campaign in 2020, taught at Boston University,
and analyzed geopolitics and macroeconomics for
the World Bank, European Parliament, and
Department of Defense. I currently run my own
business that makes public policy more accessible,
so people can know what’s happening in their
government without an expensive lobbyist.
But my most important job is as a dad. And I’m
running to solve the problems we face now before
he has to.
Our platform is for real change, including:
Statewide housing reform to get more
supply built in the cities and towns that
are refusing to do so.
Cleaner and cheaper energy through
incentivizing solar and battery storage to
bring down costs and carbon emissions.
Supporting local journalism with tax
credits for subscriptions.
Universal childcare which helps parents,
children, and the wider economy.
Most of all, I am committed to being a true
representative for every person in the district.
If you have a problem in your neighborhood,
if there’s a policy we should look at, or if you
just want to share your thoughts, I’m always
available at chris@chrisoates.org.
Get in touch and tell me how I can help.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Childcare costs parents a lot. Not having it costs the rest of us even more.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Very pleased to have received the endorsement of the @tufts_democrats after last night's forum. It's easy for local politics to ignore students, but their enthusiasm for democracy is so important for those of us who have had a couple more decades to get jaded.
Chris Oates for State Representative endorsed by Tufts Democrats
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
The potholes in question.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
I have happily crossed the first time candidate threshold from feeling pre-job interview anxiety before starting a canvass to now looking forward to getting a bit of free time so I can do one no matter how short. Great excuse to get some steps in and talk to neighbors about potholes. #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
As a first time candidate, I’m trying to publicly document as much of the process before I get inured to it. Clicking on the insights of a reel and seeing that other people have collectively spent 3 hours today watching my big face talk about housing is both humbling and horrifying
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Trying a different aesthetic from the typical campaign videos. Since my background is in policy and academia, I feel most comfortable talking about charts and data. I also think there's a lack of that for state-level policy. Let me know what you think as we hone in on some best practices #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
This chart is remarkable, though not for the reasons mentioned. It shows the change in trade by type of goods. AI-related goods are the highest, though from a low baseline so that number might be misleading. But we saw drops in manufacturing and growth in resources, while the rest of the world grew
Chart from the Financial Times showing the growth in different types of products in trade. AI is the highest, especially for the US.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
I was at the Somerville #NoKings today. It got me thinking about the Magna Carta. (Really) In 1215, outside of London, King John made a deal with rebel nobles about constraints on his power. It was much later recast as the first step to constitutional government and civil rights.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Some highlights of the day: - 1st door knocked asked for a yard sign. Got the canvass off to a great start. - Had ice cream at Colleen’s in Medford. It’s not in district, but the strawberry justifies the walk. - Housing, childcare, and traffic were the top issues mentioned.
Ice cream at Colleen’s after five miles of canvassing
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Everyone says they’ll run a hard working campaign. At the very least I can promise a hard walking one. #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
As part of my effort for the most transparent state rep campaign in #mapoli, here's the draft script for my introductory video, that I'll shoot while doing a loop of my entire district. Comment, criticize, provide whatever feedback you want!
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