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Chris Oates

@chrisoates.bsky.social
455 followers 1.7K following 1.4K posts

Former state legislative candidate and political risk analyst. Breaking down what events in the world mean for Massachusetts. chrisoates.substack.com

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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 2h
BetMGM has an ad that the way to make sports interesting is to put money on it. And they ran that during playoff baseball that kids across the country were watching because they found it already interesting. Let's stop that. youtube.com/shorts/LHAz8...
youtube.com
Why is Jon Hamm promoting gambling as a way to feel alive?
YouTube video by Chris Oates
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 5h
For the #mapoli crowd, a thought experiment for an upcoming newsletter. If we had proportional representation in the legislature and five parties emerged, what would those be? My guess: - MAGA Republicans - Charlie Baker Republicans - Labor Democrats - Indivisible Democrats - DSA
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Are hyperscalers sucking up the global capital that would otherwise be going to Massachusetts businesses? chrisoates.substack.com/p/are-ai-hyp...
chrisoates.substack.com
Are AI hyperscalers crowding out the Massachusetts economy?
Corporate debt yields are rising
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
AI is sucking up a huge amount of global capital, and that largely isnt being spent in Massachusetts. Not the biggest impact of the AI boom, but one to watch chrisoates.substack.com/p/are-ai-hyp...
chrisoates.substack.com
Are AI hyperscalers crowding out the Massachusetts economy?
Corporate debt yields are rising
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don't want to get everyone too excited, but tomorrow I'm publishing a newsletter about corporate debt yields. It's clearly what #mapoli has been looking for.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Candidates are using Substack for their fundraising email platform now?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Alert for the soccer nerds. France and Turkey are competing for the Unofficial World Championship right now. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unoffic...
en.wikipedia.org
Unofficial Football World Championships - Wikipedia
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Why are we framing a gas tax suspension as "relief", rather than a choice with trade-offs? Not sure, but there's a long history of talking about relief from taxes, starting with Richard Nixon in 1969 through George W. Bush in 2001.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This week in #mapoli Bluesky: Wordcloud
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This article from a first time candidate matches my experience, even in an open seat. Nearly every endorsement process asked me as much about my fundraising and path to victory as what I thought about the issues. pvdeye.org/political-en...
pvdeye.org
What Running for Office Taught Me About Advocacy Group Endorsements.
This year, I ran for State Representative in District 1, which includes the College Hill, Blackstone, and Wayland neighborhoods of the East Side.  Although I came up short, it was truly an invaluable ...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Both candidates for governor have proposed suspending the gas tax. My question is whether the coverage of the issue focus on the branch of government that actually controls the budget. substack.com/app-link/pos...
substack.com
Will the gas tax suspension pass?
Probably not
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Will the gas tax be suspended? I doubt it. What I’m looking for is whether the coverage focuses on the proposals from the gubernatorial candidates or the legislature - which is the branch of government that actually controls the budget. #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
For the #mapoli crowd, does the gas tax suspension actually happen? Or is it just something that is proposed but which is expected to be killed by the legislature?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Fed raised interest rates and that means that housing in Massachusetts will get more costly because: 1. Mortgage rates rise 2. Homeowners are incentivized not to sell 3. New construction slows More on this at chrisoates.substack.com/p/the-fed-ra... #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
What does a Fed rate hike mean for Massachusetts? More expensive homes due to: 1. Higher mortgage rates 2. Fewer people selling their homes 3. Less new construction chrisoates.substack.com/p/the-fed-ra... #mapoli
chrisoates.substack.com
The Fed raised interest rates - what does that mean for MA?
Homes are getting more expensive
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The most important chart of the day. Interest rates likely going up again and holding through Q2 2027.
Fed Dot Plot showing interest rate projections
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
During the campaign, I saw first-hand the decline of local news. Since I was a political risk analyst before I was a candidate, I'm going to start breaking down what's going on in the world and what it means for Massachusetts. chrisoates.substack.com/p/from-campa...
chrisoates.substack.com
From campaigning to explaining
Why I’m focusing on talking about the news
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
My main takeaway from my first time as a candidate. Our standards for state legislative office are waaaaaay too low. www.gottaknowmedford.com/opinion-vote...
gottaknowmedford.com
OPINION: Voters deserve higher standards from their candidates
As a first-time candidate for the State House, this moment represents what I’ve come to see as the biggest problem in Massachusetts politics. Candidates for public office face far, far too little scru...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I’m the only candidate in my race without a campaign finance incident. I didn’t think that would be a differentiator. I’ve been told voters don’t care, but I think they do. If you can’t keep your word or follow the rules when everyone’s watching, what can we expect when they aren’t?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This might not be how campaigns are usually run, but open question for the politicos on here. What is the best way to respond to an opponent promising something that's for a different level of govt? I'm running for state rep and an opponent said he'll lead on a bill to abolish ICE.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Disappointing news out of my state rep race. An opponent is parroting the logic of Citizens United. Going into this race I was told to lower my expectations for how much policy expertise was required, but apparently the lowered standards were still too high. csindie.com/political-no...
csindie.com
Political notes: Pledge against 'dark money' ends in 34th, attacks are short on examples in 25th - Cambridge | Somerville Independent
A flurry of endorsements while Somerville Democrats say “dark money” is suddenly in use in a race and an incumbent says she’s been slurred as an “incumbent.”
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Just shot a campaign video that was 90% outtakes and one shot that I could use. Maybe be the first candidate to have a blooper reel set to Benny Hill music?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Here are seven things I saw in Britain I’d like to bring to Massachusetts (government related, not just ale and meat pies). chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/seven-less...
chrisoatesforrep.substack.com
Seven lessons from seven years in England
Building community and making politics vibrant
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I'm in the awkward position of writing thank you notes to supporters but I only have LOVE stamps left over from wedding invitations. Use them? Or go to the Post Office tomorrow for something less cringe.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Massachusetts has the least competitive legislature in the country. I don't want to complain about it. I want to fix it. And I'm glad that @statehousenews.com covered some of my ideas, including term limits. massterlist.com/p/our-incumb...
massterlist.com
Our incumbent problem
Would term limits make Massachusetts elections more competitive?
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
What's Massachusetts going to look like in 2040? I'm running an open session to build four futures. It's also going to be a free tutorial of scenario planning, a technique I've taught at the Pentagon and Boston University. partiful.com/e/vHlSQxicJ3...
partiful.com
Scenario Planning for Massachusetts | Partiful
How do we know what the future will hold? We can't. But we can build multiple futures to better understand what might happen. I've written scenario planning reports for the European Parliament, natio...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I've been pretty surprised as a candidate how easy it is to run for office without facing any tough questions (or an opponent, sometimes). I have a plan to fix that: csindie.com/running-for-...
csindie.com
Running for office convinced me Massachusetts has a democracy problem - Cambridge | Somerville Independent
My biggest problem on the campaign trail has turned out to be getting anyone to pay attention to the race.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Massachusetts has a real problem with our lack of democracy. We have the least competitive legislature in the country and we even have open seats with only one candidate running. I'm proposing ten policies that could fix this, from public financing to term limits. chrisoates.org/people-decide
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I'm doing an AMA on Wednesday on Reddit. With no public candidate forums in my race so far and no debate yet scheduled, this may be the best way to face scrutiny from voters. Which is pretty sad. www.reddit.com/r/Somerville...
reddit.com
From the Somerville community on Reddit: State Rep Candidate Chris Oates AMA on Wednesday
Posted by ChrisOates - 1 vote and 0 comments
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The Graham Platner story is many things and one of them is a reminder of how quickly things can change in politics. The impossible can be inevitable overnight and it's why we should never give up working on the issues we care about, even when it seems difficult.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Not that a candidate for the state legislature in Massachusetts has much weight on the issue, but the Maine Democratic Party needs to push Graham Platner to drop out Then we as a party need to ask how someone so unvetted could come this close to our Senate nomination
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
We're going to be losing students over the next 25 years, which is why we should be thinking about that now, before it's too late to take action that isn't destabilizing to our school systems.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The Declaration of Independence was an argument to the people of the world. That process, of laying out our beliefs, is democracy. It is what I see every day knocking doors and what connects us to what happened in Philadelphia 250 years ago. chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/a-decent-r...
chrisoatesforrep.substack.com
A Decent Respect for the Opinions of Mankind
What the Fourth means to me
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
This campaign is making me into a Founding Fathers level of believing in the importance of character in public office. The most important question for any candidate is whether they want to do the job or have the job.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
I made a couple of retro-style video games for our campaign kickoff. They're at chrisoates.org/games if you want to jump over obstacles to pass a bill or drive around potholes. #mapoli
chrisoates.org
Chris Oates Campaign Games
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Today is the ten year anniversary of Brexit. Here’s what it means for Massachusetts. chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/what-brexi...
chrisoatesforrep.substack.com
What Brexit Taught Me About Massachusetts Politics
Honesty, integrity, and don't govern by referendum
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Another afternoon of doorknocking makes me kind of wish that my representative hadn’t gone for the state senate seat, leaving my rep seat open, during a World Cup year.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
One small thing I love about Juneteenth is that it’s not the celebration of when the Emancipation Proclamation or 13th Amendment passed, but when it reached the people. They are the main characters of this story.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
For the #mapoli, #somerpoli, and #medpoli worlds, we're bringing on campaign fellows for the summer. If you want to get involved in a mix of policy and voter outreach, you can apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/44...
linkedin.com
Oates for State Rep hiring Campaign Fellow in Somerville, MA | LinkedIn
Posted 1:02:55 PM. Chris Oates is running for State Representative to bring urgency, honesty, and serious policy work…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Discourse around housing can sometimes lose sight of something important. Houses are physical objects. Making them costs money. Someone has to pay for that. With rising costs of construction, often the one paying is all of us. open.substack.com/pub/chrisoat...
open.substack.com
Who Pays for Affordable Housing?
If we don't get construction costs down, all of us
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Join us to celebrate the kickoff of our campaign (even though we've been doorknocking since March). Food will be provided, with activities for kids and a cash bar. partiful.com/e/hprc8v6tK1...
partiful.com
Chris Oates Campaign Kickoff | Partiful
Join us to celebrate the kickoff of our campaign (even though we've been doorknocking since March). Food will be provided, with activities for kids and a cash bar. We'll talk about our plans around ho...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
People care a lot about public education in Massachusetts. So where are the conversations about what that will look like with 20% fewer students? chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/long-term-...
chrisoatesforrep.substack.com
Long-term thinking in the legislature
It's easy to ignore until it's too late
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Spoke with a convenience store owner today and she's starting to see spending go down. Worried that candidates running today on big promises may end up presiding over budget cuts. It's why seriousness in government matters: secure.actblue.com/donate/chris...
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
There’s actually a serious point in the ridiculousness of how politicians always claim their area is especially hard-working. People everywhere work hard. Economic management, institutions, policies, and government action help turn that hard work into overall levels of wealth.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
After the riots in Belfast, is there any reason for Democrats, especially here in Massachusetts, still to be on Twitter? Thanks to the research from @pawlbologna.bsky.social we know it's not because they need it to research their audience? #mapoli
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
One question I get asked. Why can I do the job of a legislator? But the question we need to ask first. What is the job of a legislator? Here's a polisci approach: - Clarify the problem - Identify the right policy - Assemble the political coaltion chrisoatesforrep.substack.com/p/what-is-th...
chrisoatesforrep.substack.com
What is the job of a legislator?
Using political science to explain what I want to do
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Excited to finish a newsletter that includes political science theory. You may not be surprised, but a state representative race doesn't use a lot of academic literature. I was once recommended not even to include math in my platform. But I think that voters deserve more.
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
As it turns out, state rep races don't set up their own debates. So if you are a local org in Somerville or Medford, set one up and I'll be there!
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Chris Oates @chrisoates.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
We're running a transparent race, so we're telling you where your money goes. This week, it's to our first mailer to the district. Every $100 buys 160 postcards, which is 4 times the margin in a nearby 2024 race. secure.actblue.com/donate/chris... #somerville #medford #elections #mapoli
We set a target this week for $6,000 to fund our first mailer to the district. We’re 95% of the way there.

Chip in $10, $50, $100 or whatever you can give to help us close this out today!
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