Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 52mWhat’s it all mean? My takeaway is that cat bonds are not adequately reflecting actual climate risk, which suggests that the kind of insurance death spiral that Sen. Whitehouse refers to may be underestimated. Would love to hear what any climate-risk modelers / cat-bond specialists think! 13/end 000
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 53mIn summary: Climate risks are still rising. Swiss Re sees “structural drivers” contributing to long-term insured loss growth of around 5–7% annually, even as it reports that first-half 2026 insured natural catastrophe losses were below trend. www.swissre.com/institute/re... 12/xswissre.comFirst-half 2026 insured catastrophe losses: below trend, rising risks | Swiss ReGlobal insured natural catastrophe losses reached an estimated USD 42 billion in the first half of 2026, below the USD 66 billion long-term trend, according to Swiss Re Institute. 100
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 54mFifth, catastrophe modeling needs to move beyond just modeling climate to also account for the evolution of the economic environment, the regime shifts of both environments, and the interactions between them. See: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 11/xsciencedirect.comPricing catastrophe risk during transitions of physical and economic environmentsThe increasing frequency and severity of natural catastrophes call for comprehensive strategies to manage, mitigate, and transfer catastrophe (CAT) ri… 110
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 54mFourth, cat-bond premiums imply greater catastrophe risk than historical statistical probabilities. See: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... But that may not mean what you think. Backward-looking probabilities may be failing to capture rising physical risk, rather than investors overpricing it. 10/xpapers.ssrn.comCatastrophe and Corporate Bonds: A Unified Approach to Pricing Natural Disaster RisksThis paper derives a unified model for both catastrophe and corporate bonds to study the implications of natural disaster risks. We obtain arbitrage-free valuat 100
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 55mYet this huge supply was readily absorbed because investor demand was so strong, and catastrophe-risk spreads fell back to approximately pre-Hurricane Ian levels. www.swissre.com/our-business... 9/xswissre.comILS market insights: July 2026 | Swiss ReIn-depth analysis of the Insurance-Linked Securities market trends and key developments for July 2026. 100
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 55mthat makes them *less* reflective of actual risk. This 2019 paper still appears to be the canonical reference on that point: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Swiss Re reports that cat-bond issuance exceeded $17 billion across 64 transactions in H1 2026—the strongest first half ever. 8/xsciencedirect.comClimate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysisSince their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper invest… 100
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 56mSee www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Third, a significant inflow of capital into the cat-bond sector has actually *reduced* premiums even while actual catastrophe risk *increases*. Expansionary monetary conditions and portfolio allocations have an outsized effect on cat-bond premiums... 7/xsciencedirect.comIs the climate-linked CAT bond market efficiently priced? A risk–return analysisThis study offers insights into the catastrophe (CAT) bond market that has the potential to contribute towards further development of this alternative… 120
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 57mSee: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... In short, cat-bond markets may be better at pricing catastrophes once they appear on weather maps than at pricing the changing climate conditions that make them more likely. Second, cat bonds do not appear to be efficiently priced. 6/xsciencedirect.comClimate variability and catastrophe bond premiumsThis study examines the impact of climate variability, represented by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on catastrophe (cat) bond issuance prem… 131
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 58mwhile El Niño has a much weaker pricing effect. The literature needs to catch up with the reality of the 2026 El Niño, but there may be a market blind spot here, where those effects (Pacific hurricanes, floods, atmospheric rivers, wildfires, typhoons) are under-priced. 5/x 130
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 1hSome recent literature explores how rising climate risks are reflected in cat bond premiums, and it shows some counter-intuitive dynamics. First, it seems that moderate-to-strong La Niña produces substantial cat bond premium increases because it’s weighted to the Atlantic hurricane season. 4/x 130
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 1hAnd more properties become uninsurable as global warming increases year by year. • That leads to collapsing real estate markets. • Which can lead to a recession. If you want to get a handle on that, you’d probably look to the premiums of catastrophe bonds (“cat bonds”)... 3/x 130
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 1h• Wildfires, flooding, severe weather like intense tropical cyclones, and so on have absolutely become more likely due to global warming. • Those risks have now made it impossible/extremely expensive to insure some properties, because insurance companies live & die by those very probabilities. 2/x 130
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 1hAre we headed for a climate-driven insurance death spiral? Time for a thread! There’s a key insight in the NN#10 podcast I published this week www.transitiontimes.net/nn-10-a-nobl... where Sen. Whitehouse laid out how increasing climate risks leads to a broad recession: 1/xtransitiontimes.netNN#10: A Noble CauseAdvocates and researchers of the energy transition are woefully ill-equipped to do battle with the fossil fuel industry. In this monologue, Chris identifies what’s needed and what’s missing, then rein... 282
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 15/10/2026When Trump was elected in 2016, I said that the GOP brand was damaged for a generation, but they didn't know it yet. Apparently now they do. 0130
Reposted by Chris NelderStephen Leahy @stephenleahy.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Can't recommend this enough...our cold-hard reality "The fossil fuel industry has rigged every system in the world in every possible way they can find to rig it. They have their hands on the levers of power everywhere" 166
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Well thank you Stephen, extremely kind of you to say so! I'm glad that one resonated with you. 010
Reposted by Chris NelderJustin Mikulka @justinmikulka.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Another long read worth your time. Although I think we need to distill what @chrisnelder.bsky.social has laid out here into a one pager. I'll leave you with one of the sharp insights. "learn to play golf" Read it and it makes sense.transitiontimes.netNN#10: A Noble CauseAdvocates and researchers of the energy transition are woefully ill-equipped to do battle with the fossil fuel industry. In this monologue, Chris identifies what’s needed and what’s missing, then rein... 4135
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 14/10/2026By popular demand, this episode is built on a lecture I gave at Oxford three years ago, and subsequently around the world. It’s time to learn how to fight the fossil fuel industry and win! 185
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Remember the mysterious trades on oil back in March/April that were perfectly timed to Trump's announcements, netting the traders millions of dollars? Well a CFTC official referred the matter to the enforcement dept...then a Trump goon told the CFTC to squelch it. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...bloomberg.comCFTC Staff Were Told to Retract Analysis of Suspicious Oil TradesChairman’s adviser intervened to take over examination of lucrative bets that were made around Trump reversal on Iran power plant attack. 02520
Reposted by Chris NelderKees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Energy & Climate Reporters, my new Starter Pack! go.bsky.app/4uS575R Far from matured, but nice already. No idea why only men made it to the title page, or how I can change that... Suggestions welcome. 53514
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Maybe! Especially if they increase as they go, e.g., classy, bougie, RATCHET! 000
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 13/10/2026static.klipy.comDr. Evil Demands One Billion DollarsALT: Dr. Evil Demands One Billion Dollars 23611
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 13/10/2026So is this the third, or the fourth big wave of "Why I left / went back to the Nazi bar" posts since the original 2022 wave? I've lost track. 150
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Decades of unimaginable wealth, insane compensation, and zero accountability will do that... 000
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Not The Onion www.businessinsider.com/ai-researche...businessinsider.comAI researchers are taking up smoking because they expect AI to cure cancer, says Palantir CTOSome AI believers expect the technology to make smoking-related health risks like cancer a thing of the past, Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar said. 43112
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Great roundup of global EV news in the latest from @justingerdes.bsky.social. Especially France's new "social leasing" program that allows low-income households to lease an EV for less than €200 a month over three years, without a deposit! www.quittingcarbonmedia.com/what-im-read...quittingcarbonmedia.comWhat I’m reading: Surging electric truck sales, France's clean tech social leasing success, and global energy transition trackerQuitting Carbon's biweekly roundup of energy transition developments you might have missed. 1104
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026This is exactly how I expect solar geoengineering to actually play out: according to self-interested, paranoid, delusional politics, and entirely in ignorance of science. www.wired.com/story/they-w...wired.comThey War-Gamed Dimming the Sun. It Went Even Worse Than You ThinkSolar geoengineering could buy humanity time against climate change—or trigger a dangerous new arms race. A first-of-its-kind simulation offered a glimpse of what happens when geopolitics takes the wh... 2103
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026The latest “ceasefire” claimed by Trump didn’t even last 24 hours. www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...theguardian.comUkraine says Russia violated Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ – Europe liveVolodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv power plant among the facilities hit after US president claims ‘energy ceasefire’, while Kremlin yet to confirm any deal 094
Reposted by Chris NelderAdrian Hiel @adrianhiel.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Counterpoint: weakening hydrogen ambitions is one of the best ways for Europe to build energy resilience. 54911
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 11/10/2026Ahh, so sorry mate! That’s a terrible loss—one of the hardest for sure. And so young. 💔 You have my deepest sympathies. 010
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Thank you for the compliment. I definitely have not grappled in detail with Title IV. I'll have a look. Perhaps that's a good area to focus on in the House bill and take it up in reconciliation. 010
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I assume those claims (including mine www.transitiontimes.net/tt-17-my-ver...) are based on gut feel and reading the trends, not empirical modeling, which really can't be done at this point anyway (far too many unknowns). Nothing wrong with that, either.transitiontimes.netTT#17 – My Verdict on BAAJAThe bipartisan permitting reform bill would remove key hurdles to the energy transition—especially hurdles to siting transmission—and unlock vast amounts of wind and solar power. On the whole, it woul... 130
Reposted by Chris NelderAaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026Trump: "I think you heard about the oil deal with Russia. That is a big deal. That is massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and I want to thank President Putin to be honest with you." 8621583427
Reposted by Chris NelderRon Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Zelenskyy issues a statement responding to Trump’s deal with Putin to lift sanctions to purchase Russian oil and diesel. 30560462245
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Biden implemented sanctions on oil sales in an effort to not finance Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Trump celebrates buying Russian oil while that war drags on (after celebrating Putin's birthday). 2109
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 08/10/2026If you are truly balanced in your assessment, and not just complaining about the bits you don't like, then show me a realistic alternate path to achieving the same benefits that would satisfy you. I don't accept "no progress" as an acceptable alternative. 110
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 08/10/2026As I put it in my article on this question yesterday, we should not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Instead of just complaining ideologically about the bits we don't like, we must weigh them against the benefits & focus on making actual progress. bsky.app/profile/tran... 110
Reposted by Chris NelderAmericans for Tax Fairness @4taxfairness.bsky.social · 07/10/2026BREAKING: 170 billionaire families have now spent a record-breaking $1.7 BILLION on the midterms. That's not counting $600 MILLION in dark money. Billionaire political spending is up 53x since the Citizens United ruling. This is how billionaires buy power and huge tax breaks. 36640
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I think music got a bit more... whole grain after that. 010
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Thanks Dan. I've been working on some ideas for selling that branding... 110
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Shoutouts 2/2: @goodjillian.bsky.social @matthewdalyap.bsky.social @dianadigangi.bsky.social @zhirji.bsky.social l @leslieatlarge.bsky.social 010
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Shoutouts to sources cited in this post (who appear to be active on Bluesky): @janeaflegal.bsky.social @jigarshahdc.bsky.social @zekehausfather.com @billmckibben.bsky.social @emilypont.bsky.social @kbrigham.bsky.social @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social @jael.bsky.social @zeitlin.bsky.social 1/2 152
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Not gonna say they're "similarly successful" but I'd argue the same is true for Bread. 110
Reposted by Chris NelderTransition Times @transitiontimes.bsky.social · 07/10/2026In TT#17, we review the reporting on the Senate’s bipartisan permitting reform bill (BAAJA) and find that on net, it would be far better for the energy transition than having no reforms. We should support it and not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. www.transitiontimes.net/tt-17-my-ver...transitiontimes.netTT#17 – My Verdict on BAAJAThe bipartisan permitting reform bill would remove key hurdles to the energy transition—especially hurdles to siting transmission—and unlock vast amounts of wind and solar power. On the whole, it woul... 0126
Chris Nelder @chrisnelder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7VQ...youtube.comThe Fugs - Kill For PeaceYouTube video by thecountofbasie 040