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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Random Friday graph: Average position adjusted size (height/weight) by offense and defense for each FBS team. Syracuse has some basketball size on offense, Wisconsin has some big dudes on defense

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

Way too early consensus* 2027 NFL Draft QB rankings 1. Arch Manning 2. Dante Moore 3. Darian Mensah 4. Brendan Sorsby 5. CJ Carr 6. Drew Mestemaker 7. Jayden Maiava 8. LaNorris Sellers 9. Julian Sayin 10. CJ Bailey *consensus of my own vibes + some numbers

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

In terms of total draft pick value (based on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart), 2026 Ohio State had the 5th best draft class since 2007, just passing their 2025 draft class

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

2nd annual tradition of putting out my draft preferences for my beloved Miami Dolphins. I didn't even have Kenneth Grant last year so what do I know lol

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

First round mock NFL Draft for the laughs but also the giggles

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Number one overall QBs (and Fernando Mendoza who is going to be the first pick) and their career point rating along with percentiles. Mendozas point rating ranks in the ~89th percentile of drafted QBs since 2008, and in a normal range of previous 1st picks. Send the card in!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Most PFF Wins Above Average (WAA) among Safeties in the PFF Era: 1. Caleb Downs - 1.23 2. Jordan Battle - 1.09 3. K'Von Wallace - 0.81 4. RJ Mickens - 0.79 5. Dillon Thieneman - 0.77 6. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - 0.76

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

A look at the average and total Approximate Value added to the team that drafted the player by college. Not saying the college matters after they get to a NFL camp but still an interesting look nonetheless!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Looking at CPOE by pass depth, but instead of QBs its WRs when they are targeted. These are the ~top 12 WRs in the draft based on consensus boards. Bryce Lance as a deep threat🔥

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Looking at draft QBs and how often they put the ball "into play" under pressure (so aimed passes regardless of outcome. No sacks or scrambles). Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier lead the way with putting balls in play under pressure, with Nussmeier having the higher CPOE

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Not an April Fools joke!! My 2026 NFL Draft cards are now LIVE and ready to go! The cards have everything from little blurbs based on film study to stats and other fun things! Its 100% free! Ill link an article explaining it further + the draft guide link [1/4]🧵

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Have to finalize some numbers but im doing a draft guide that is Pokemon cards for the ~top 40 prospects (atm, maybe ill get to 50 if there is interest!) If this interests you let me know! Should be good to go early next week!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

This graph shows how valuable a QB was in his career (y axis), and how much his offense used things like play action, screens RPOs etc. (X axis). Mendoza in a fine spot on both axis

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Assembling a dresser with a hurt back

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Comparing my QB point rating system to Next Gen Stats Production Score (0.52 R2 among QBs since 2008 for those interested). Both systems have Fernando Mendoza clearly above the rest of the QB class

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Another installment of Game Managers and Gunslingers, including the 2026 draft class. Things like ADOT, throwing past the sticks create the gunslinging metric, while comp %/negative play rate shape the game manager metric. This class features 0 QBs in the top right quadrant

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

The most important piece of draft information out there: The top 40 prospects (by consensus board) by what Pokemon they are close to in height and weight (removing duplicate use of Pokemon)

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Post Combine Mock Draft for (once again) the laughs and also the giggles

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

For combine week I am highlighting the best Ironman competitors by position (guys that completed each drill in this table) using average percentile grouped by position

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

This is the top 15 WRs in CPOE when targeted. Pretty decent list

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

Looking at completion percentage over expectation and average depth of target, but from the WRs perspective. Carnell Tate lands in the top 5 in CPOE when targeted among WRs drafted in the first 2 rounds since the 2017 draft class

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

2026 NFL Draft QB prospects completion percentage over expectation by how far they threw the football down the field. Capped at 40 yards because its wonky after that. Yes that is Cole Payton and NDSU you are seeing👀

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Explosive rush rate and missed tackles forced per attempt among RBs taken in first two rounds since 2017 + what I believe are the top 3 RBs in this class (Love, Price, Coleman). Jeremiyah Love and Jonah Coleman in good company next to Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

For a measly $450 on Fanatics you can get Sam Darnold to sign Bo Nix's name on a picture of him holding the Lombardi trophy

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Im sad to see the Dakotas get split up (for now) but I am interested to see how fast NDSU can plant themselves in the CFP conversation. They have been one of the best non P4 teams at getting guys drafted high in the past 15 drafts

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

The annual look at where players on the active rosters for the two Super Bowl teams started in terms of their HS recruit rating. Feels like there is a lot more non blue chip/unranked players than usual

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Expected Points added per play from this season and last season among FBS QBs with 150+ plays (and 75+ pass attempts) in each season. Jayden Maiava, Diego Pavia and Joey Fagnano among biggest improvers year over year

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Booted up Road to Glory last night...... what is this schedule lmao

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

2026 NFL Mock Draft based on my advanced AI model* *Pure vibes

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Run their ass out of the stadium

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

Now that the 2025 season is over we can see where the career QB ratings stand for QBs active in the 2025 season. Jayden Maiava reigns supreme with Julian Sayin and Trinidad Chambliss finishing out the podium

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Way too early 2026-2027 CFB bracket for the laughs (at how wrong it will be) and anger. JKS/Cal win ACC Chaos, GJ Kinne finds defense and becomes the hottest coach candidate. No USC-Notre Dame in the regular season? No problem! I am once again saying Texas is back

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

A big ole QB graph showing how often QBs face "pass downs" (2nd and 7+ yards to go, 3rd and 5+ yards to go) and how efficiency they are on those downs via EPA/Play. Fernando Mendoza doesn't face many of these downs but is efficient when he does

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Among FBS Head coaches with 15+ games (that have spreads/point totals), this is how many points they are favored/not favored pregame, and their avg point differential above/below that pregame expectation. Curt Cignetti is on a whole other level

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Havent shared my consensus power ratings in a while, so here they are heading into week 10. The B1G holds the top three spots, Ohio State + Indiana are in the top tier (standard deviations) while Oregon is like decimal points off that line

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

Everyones favorite: Completion Pct Over Expectation by pass depth for some of the top QBs expected in the 2026 NFL Draft class

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

Expected points added per play divided up by above 50th percentile defense vs. below. Basically bottom right = better against worse defenses, top left better against better defenses

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Thought maybe Carson Beck would be dethroned in the QB point rating system, but he narrowly holds onto the top spot. Top 3 highest climbers this season: Gunner Stockton, Jayden Maiava, and the newest in the top 30: Julian Sayin!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Highest Comp Pct Over Expectation in the CFB Playoff era. We still have a pretty small sample size for some of the active players on this list, but for now: Julian Sayin has been every bit of the ultra accurate QB we thought he would be

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

Updated top 30 QBs in the FBS (Career number not just this year) based on my point rating system. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams have climbed the most this season. Ty Simpson sitting just outside the top 30 (32). Drew Allar has fallen out of the top 30

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

Looking at offensive conversion rate paired with the average down they achieve these 1st down conversions (excluding plays in the red zone). I am of the philosophy that the best offenses convert at a high rate and on earlier downs. Its too hard to live and die by 3rd down

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Have seen some NFL posts about QB sacks + scrambles, wanted to look at it on the college level (although its all rushes and not just scrambles sadly). QBs to the right of the line have added more as a rusher than they have lost taking sacks

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there! cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

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