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Carter Price

@carterprice.bsky.social
83 followers 62 following 30 posts

Mathematician @RANDCorporation. I work on quantitative policy analysis for health, security, and other stuff. Opinions = mine, RTs ≠ endorsements

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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
(6/) The RAND Budget Model Initiative has been developing several new tools for exploring the U.S. Tax Code including new ways of understand why complexity has been growing. You can read more about our #tax work here: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Unlocking the Tax Code with RAND's Tax Code Analysis Tool
RAND's Tax Code Analysis Tool (CAT) helps researchers and policymakers better understand the intricacies of U.S. federal tax code, allowing users to represent the entire tax code as a graph and quickl...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
(5/) Also, as your income increases, you have different types of income, and your family grows, the complexity of filing your taxes will increase. Thus, American's are likely to feel more of a burden from taxes as they age regardless of the increase in complexity.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
(4/) More Tax Credits and Deductions: Each year the number of tax credits/deductions increases by 3-4, though this too has slowed in recent years. (also, only about three dozen of these are for individual filers--the vast majority are for corporation, partnerships, and etc.)
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Longer Instructions: The instructions booklets have gotten longer too (about 6% per year since 1935--though this has leveled off in recent years)
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
(2/) Longer Tax Code: The tax code has gotten longer (about 3% per year for the last century)
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Does it feel like filing your #taxes has gotten more complicated? They probably have! There are several reasons for that: (1/)
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Sorry, the correct link is: www.rand.org/pubs/working...
rand.org
Measuring the Income Gap from 1975 to 2023
The author extends the results of prior work on the income gap between the bottom 90 percent of workers in 2023 and what they would have earned with an even growth rate from 1975 to 2023. These worker...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I had a great chat on @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social about a gloomy topic: the cost of fifty years of rising income inequality. You can read more about this research here (link fixed): www.rand.org/pubs/working...
rand.org
Measuring the Income Gap from 1975 to 2023
The author extends the results of prior work on the income gap between the bottom 90 percent of workers in 2023 and what they would have earned with an even growth rate from 1975 to 2023. These worker...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
8/8 You can read more about this and a lot of other findings here. Now that we've built the tool, we have an ambitious research agenda applying modern analytic methods to explore #tax and fiscal policy. t.co/tZDDzeYl2r
t.co
https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA4392-1.html
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
7/8 However, the effective corporate tax rates vary substantially by sector.
Scatterplot showing the number of sections in the tax code devoted to an industry with the effective tax rate. This shows that there is substantial variation by industry along both dimensions..
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
6/8 But when we look at the end result, it only brings in about 1/8th the revenue of the individual tax code.
Sankey diagram showing the how corporate earnings flow into corporate tax liability and a variety of deductions.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
5/8 The corporate tax code is about twice as complex.
Graph of the nearly 100 corporate tax forms to the several hundred regulations and more than a thousand form lines and sections. This figure indicates that the corporate tax code is about twice as complex, from a form perspective, as the individual tax code.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
4/8 We pieced together the data from IRS forms to piece together, in aggregate, the effect of the three dozen tax credits and deductions on federal revenue.
Sankey diagram of individual income to taxable income to tax liability showing the dozens of tax credits and deductions.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
3/8 We can use this information to link to IRS forms and a variety of data sources. We linked the graph to the 58 forms that are an individual taxpayer's interface to the tax code.
Graph of individual tax forms shows a few dozen forms are connected to several hundred form lines, regulations, and sections of the tax code.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
2/8 Title 26 of the U.S. Code is nearly 2,000 sections spread across about 7,000 pages and the graph is a mess, but we can use NLP to determine the topic of each section and extract useful information.
Graph of the Internal Revenue Code shows tens of thousands of nodes and several hundred thousand edges.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
1/8 We have a new tool for tax policy research. RAND's tax code analysis tool uses natural language processing, machine learning, and network analysis to map the Internal Revenue Code (U.S.C. Title 26) line-by-line. You can read about it here: t.co/YWlhk3vHOU
t.co
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA4392-1.html
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Reposted by Carter Price
RAND @rand.org · 02/01/2026
Today’s large language models—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok—can write code and polish prose. But would you trust them to do your taxes? RAND's @carterprice.bsky.social discusses in @wsj.com.
wsj.com
Opinion | Would You Let Claude Do Your Taxes?
Preparing a return is the kind of task AI ought to be good for.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
When do you think you'll be comfortable with ChatGPT, Claude, or one of the others AI platforms doing your taxes?
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
This builds on some @rand.org work that I have with Akshaya Suresh about disruptions from labor replacing AI: www.rand.org/pubs/working...
rand.org
Federal Revenue When AI Replaces Labor
This study describes how federal revenue could be affected by labor-replacing artificial intelligence (AI) and explores possible policy responses. AI could disrupt the tax base if the labor force shri...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
We’re not there yet, but the pace of progress suggests we could be within a year or two. Now is the time for workers, businesses, and policymakers to start preparing for these changes.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
It’s not just individual workers who should be concerned—companies like H&R Block and Intuit, and many others whose business relies on managing paperwork, could be disrupted as AI advances.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
In my piece, I propose a simple test: Would you trust #AI to do your taxes? This requires both accuracy and trust. When AI can reliably read instructions, extract information from your documents, and complete the tax forms, it will be capable of automating a wide range of jobs.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
There’s a lot of anxiety about AI replacing jobs, but today’s #AI tools aren’t quite ready to fully **replace** many humans in the workplace. Today's AI systems still require significant supervision, but the gap is closing fast.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
My commentary on #AI in today's @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/opinion/woul...
wsj.com
Opinion | Would You Let Claude Do Your Taxes?
Preparing a return is the kind of task AI ought to be good for.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
7/ And learn more about the RAND Budget Model here: www.rand.org/education-em...
rand.org
The RAND Budget Model
RAND is developing a series of tools to help policymakers and the public understand how much can change with every line in the budget. We’re not just examining the costs of federal policy decisions. W...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
6/ There's much more to explore in our report, which is free to download: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Drawing on History: Strategies for Reducing the Federal Debt
With U.S. debt projected to reach 156% of GDP by 2055, researchers use the RAND Budget Model to examine how the U.S. reduced debt after WWII and model options for addressing today’s challenges. Findin...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
5/ If we stay on the current path, more of our tax dollars will go to foreign countries than towards keeping Americans safe, responding to disasters, and delivering on all other national priorities. ➡️The bottom line: We tackled our debt burden in the past, and we can do it again.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
4/ It will also require policymakers to build durable plans so that we can stay on track over the long time. Imagine a 30-year plan where policymakers came to a consensus on a general path to get to a fiscally sustainable place and a healthy economy.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
3/ This study provides an achievable benchmark for fiscal policy in the future. But the specific tradeoffs require policymakers to make tough choices. They will need to think beyond the ten-year planning window Congress currently uses to estimate impacts of legislation.
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
2/ My colleagues Vegard Nygaard, Akshaya Suresh and I examined the last 80 years of federal debt, including how the US: 🔹reduced the debt burden from WWII over 30 years 🔹piled on debt over the next 50 years 🔹can reduce this burden over the next 30 years www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Drawing on History: Strategies for Reducing the Federal Debt
With U.S. debt projected to reach 156% of GDP by 2055, researchers use the RAND Budget Model to examine how the U.S. reduced debt after WWII and model options for addressing today’s challenges. Findin...
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Carter Price @carterprice.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
1/ In September, the federal debt hit $30 trillion. That's over 100% of GDP—higher than at any point since WWII. How did we get here? And what might help the U.S. reduce the debt burden to a manageable level? Our new @rand.org report explores…🧵
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