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Carmen Villa

@carmenvillaecon.bsky.social
872 followers 797 following 77 posts

I am an Assistant Professor at ‪@econ.uzh.ch‬ and ‪@jacobscenteruzh.bsky.social‬. I am also a Research Affiliate at ‪@theifs.bsky.social‬.

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Reposted by Carmen Villa
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
NEW: The English and Welsh justice system is under strain. But more funding alone won't alone fix the system’s problems. Our new Transforming Justice report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the resources pressures facing the system: [THREAD]
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Discussing youth club closures with Neil Maggs has been a pleasure. His documentary, The Return of the Youth Club, is out now at BBC Radio 4, and has interesting insights from youth workers, young people, scholars, and the broader community. Thanks for having me! www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Currently - The Return of the Youth Club - BBC Sounds
Former youth worker and journalist Neil Maggs looks at the fall and rise of the youth club
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
How does housing design affect local criminality? A short presentation of my work with coauthors at @cep-lse.bsky.social from this years' ⭐ Annual Research Night ⭐. Many thanks for having me. Proud to be a part of @econ.uzh.ch and @jacobscenteruzh.bsky.social. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju2p...
youtube.com
"Does Housing Design Drive Gang Formation?" | Carmen Villa | Research Slam
YouTube video by UZH Department of Economics
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
Ludger Woessmann @woessmann.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
📢 We are hiring 📢 Please spread the word: We are hiring a 🧑‍🎓 Postdoc (up to 6 years, non-tenure track) at the ifo Center for the Economics of Education! Come join our team as junior faculty: www.ifo.de/en/job-offer... Application deadline: July 22
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
IZA@LISER @iza.org · 25/06/2026
📊 For 25 years, #Spain appeared to have a #demographic mystery: too many boys, too few girls. A new IZA Discussion Paper by Manuel Bagues & @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social reveals that Spain’s so-called “missing women” never went missing at all. #DataQuality 🔗 Learn more: www.iza.org/news/solving...
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
IZA@LISER @iza.org · 17/06/2026
World of Labour:🆕opinion piece "When paying students to stay in school falls short" by J. Britton, @nickridpath.bsky.social, @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social & B. Waltmann Paying disadvantaged teens to stay in school may raise enrolment but does not improve future prospects. wol.iza.org/opinions/whe...
wol.iza.org
When paying students to stay in school falls short
Paying disadvantaged teenagers to stay in school slightly raises enrolment but does not improve qualifications or future job prospects
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
📖💰Can paying disadvantaged teenagers keep them in formal education? 📖💰 In England, 30£/week didn't bring long run benefits. Other policies (part-time edu, traineeships...) might better suit some pupils. New blog summary linked below. @theifs.bsky.social @iza.org wol.iza.org/opinions/whe...
wol.iza.org
When paying students to stay in school falls short
Paying disadvantaged teenagers to stay in school slightly raises enrolment but does not improve qualifications or future job prospects
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin @rfberlin.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
(3/9) Sex, Lies and Birth Statistics by Manuel Bagues, @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social Evidence of inconsistencies in Spanish birth data sheds light on missing women in official statistics. www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...
rfberlin.com
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
También hemos escrito un blog en español, que podéis leer aquí. Mil gracias al equipo de @nadaesgratis.bsky.social nadaesgratis.es/bagues/el-mi...
nadaesgratis.es
Sexo, mentiras y estadísticas del INE: el misterioso caso de las niñas que no nacían
Por Manuel Bagues y Carmen Villa A principios de los años ochenta España era, según los datos oficiales, el país del mundo con la mayor proporción de niños por niña al nacer, con unos 109 niños por c...
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The working paper can be found here: cepr.org/publications... @cepr.org @warwickecon.bsky.social @econ.uzh.ch
cepr.org
DP21227 Sex, Lies and Birth Statistics: The Mysterious Case of the Spanish Missing Women
Official Spanish birth registry data report sex ratios well above expected levels between 1975 and 2000, peaking at 109 boys per 100 girls in the early 1980s, the highest in the world at that time. Pr...
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Our findings highlight the responsibility of statistical agencies to cross-validate and, where necessary, flag known data errors to prevent misinterpretation by researchers. The Spanish women were never missing, but are an artefact of processing errors at INE 5/n
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Provisional birth statistics for the same period show ratios within plausible values. Additional evidence in support of data errors explaining the high ratio come from missing values in the micro-data, which suggest the corruption of the sex field affected other variables 4/n
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The registry also shows implausible variation in sex ratios at the province and month level. The outliers are not normally distributed but consistent with one-directional miscoding of females as males 3/n
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The official birth registry data show very large sex ratios in Spain from 1975 until approximately 2000 (normal rates are 105-106). Evidence of the registry being wrong comes from comparing it to the census. The differences remain after account for mortality/migration 2/n
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
According to official birth registry data, in 1981 Spain had the highest sex ratio in the world (109 boys per 100 girls). Prior work attributed this anomaly to demographic/behavioural patterns. In a new WP, we show the high ratio is due to data errors 🧵with Manuel Bagues 1/n
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Extra link if above not working drive.google.com/file/d/1rIgq...
drive.google.com
dp2147.pdf
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...
cep.lse.ac.uk
Gangs of London and public housing
Novel spatial data on London street gangs between 1990 and 2015 are combined with local housing characteristics to produce a newly constructed data source that shows how social housing and its architectural design relates to gang presence and neighbourhood crime. High-rise public housing estates built in the post-World War II era are much more likely to host gangs than areas without social housing. To address concerns that social housing was built in already high-crime areas, localised high-rise construction is shown to be predicted from spatial patterns of WWII bomb damage that occurred in the 1940-41 Blitz. Bomb-induced high-rise construction significantly raises gang presence and criminality, with there being especially high juvenile crime rates in gang areas.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Thank you Francesca!
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Mixed-income developments and income diversity may help prevent negative social interactions, including the spatial concentration of gangs. Full WP here:https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICATIONS/abstract.asp?index=11984
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Why high-rises? They concentrated deprived populations in specific areas. The Right to Buy policy (1980) made this worse—houses were more likely to be bought off than flats, leaving towers increasingly isolated and disadvantaged.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Areas with gangs have dramatically higher rates of: knife crime (+72%), drug offences (+55%), violence (+49%), and crimes involving children suspects (+46%), as measured in administrative data from the London Metropolitan Police in 2010-2019.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Bombed areas are: 18% more likely to have high-rise postwar housing, and 12% more likely to host gangs in later decades. This is robust to controlling for pre-WWII income levels, not driven by Inner London only, and not just due to population density effects.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Is this relationship causal? We use the 1940-41 Blitz as a shock to urban redevelopment. Since height regulations were relaxed in bombed areas, and bombing was random at small scales, this gives us plausibly exogenous variation in where postwar high-rises were built.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
We combine novel spatial data on 440 gang territories with detailed council housing records and building attributes. Compared to areas with no council housing, high-rise post-war council housing areas are 3.3x more likely to host gangs.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
🚨📰New WP 🚨📰 How does social housing design affect neighborhoods decades later? We study London gangs to show that postwar urban planning—specifically high-rise public housing construction—had lasting effects on gang formation @cep-lse.bsky.social
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Is this useful? Probably not. Productive? Definitely not. But hopefully entertaining! Wishing you all a happy Christmas with loved ones. May 2026 bring joy both at and away from work.❤️
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Reverse causality doesn't seem to be at play (lag productivity does not predict taking time off conditional on day of week, month, and year FE).
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Does taking time off help or hurt? There seem to be some returns to "getting in the zone" for a few days, but they fade fast. The long breaks (9+ days off) are deadline-driven: job market, thesis defence, submissions etc.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
There is no "Friday I'm in Love" effect on the intensive margin either, but when I do work weekends, I perceive myself as less productive—probably shorter days, distractions, missing that peer effect energy.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Can I predict productive days beyond major life events? Not really. Year fixed effects explain just 1.5% of variation, month FE only 2%. In the intensive margin, there is no "deficit of vitamin D" observed fall in winter, no significant "working from holiday" falls in summer.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Three things stand out from the aggregate trends: a) my standards might be getting stricter over time b) there are clear bursts when away from home (e.g. during my visiting at Chicago) c) there is a post-job market crash, explained by changes in the ext. margin (long holiday)
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
A few years ago I started a productivity diary to stay motivated when progress felt invisible. Every day I log productivity (on a 1-4 scale), or whether I took the day off. Here's what 3 years of data reveal about my work patterns. 🧵 x.com/carmenvillae...
x.com
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
Department of Economics @Universität Zürich🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 17/12/2025
Eine neue Studie von @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social zeigt, dass die Anhebung des gesetzlichen Mindestalters für den Alkoholkonsum von 16 auf 18 Jahre, die schulischen Leistungen und die psychische Gesundheit von Jugendlichen deutlich verbessert.👇 www.tagesanzeiger.ch/alkohol-bei-...
tagesanzeiger.ch
Höheres Mindestalter für Alkohol verbessert Schulnoten und hilft der Psyche
Eine Studie der Universität Zürich zeigt: Strengere Alkoholgesetze senken den Konsum bei jungen Menschen – mit weitreichenden Folgen.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
/end The students induced to stay in school didn't gain qualifications despite more time in education. Financial incentives pushing students toward academic tracks may displace them from vocational or work-based training where they might thrive and build valuable skills.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
6/ Despite some beneficial effects on crime, our estimate is that the Marginal Value of Public Funds was just 0.74 - meaning every £1 spent generated only 74p in societal returns. Even though this was a direct cash transfer, it failed to provide good value for money.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
5/ Low achievers: stayed in education longer but saw no qualification gains, became more economically inactive at 18, had lower earnings throughout their 20s. GOOD NEWS: The EMA reduced criminal convictions among this group and this effect persisted into their late 20s.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
4/ Effects varied by prior attainment. High achievers: more likely to attend university (but not graduate), lower part-time work while studying, lower earnings in early 20s that never recovered. 📉
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
3/ Despite high take-up, the EMA had no significant effect on labor market outcomes by age 31. We find that education participation increased only modestly and no improvement in earnings, employment, or welfare dependency.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
2/ We track 200,000+ individuals who would have been eligible to the full award up to age 30. We use several administrative databases and explore the effects using the staggered roll-out of the program.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
1/ The EMA was a massive program - over half of young people were eligible to some payments if they stayed in school. Payments went directly to students (not parents) and required regular attendance. This was one of the largest conditional cash transfers in any high-income country. 💸
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
🧵 UPDATED WP OUT 🧵What happens when you pay disadvantaged teenagers to stay in school? We evaluated England's Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA), which paid low-income 16-19 year olds up to £1,400/year to remain in education. @theifs.bsky.social @nickridpath.bsky.social
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
Department of Economics @Universität Zürich🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 13/11/2025
“Adolescence is a very critical period, where we know from neurological literature the brain is undergoing important changes. A sense of belonging is critical.” says @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social tinyurl.com/4enr3dej
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
We are grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewers for excellent suggestions on our paper. I also deeply thank Manuel, whom I feel very lucky to work with and learn from.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
A thread summarising the findings is available here: bsky.app/profile/carm...
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
A non-technical summary can be found here: (English) ow.ly/TXSR50UKSBW or here: (Spanish) nadaesgratis.es/bagues/consu...
ow.ly
Raising legal drinking ages: An opportunity to improve European educational outcomes
Teenage drinking remains widespread in Europe. To address concerns about its negative effects on health and cognition, many European countries have raised their minimum legal drinking age from 16 to 18 in recent decades. This column reports on evidence from Spain, where regions increased the minimum age at different times, which shows that the higher minimum age reduced binge drinking and improved performance in academic tests. The findings suggest that reducing teenage alcohol consumption represents a significant opportunity to improve educational outcomes in Europe.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Our article 🍷📚 Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Educational Outcomes (with Manuel Bagues) 📚🍷 is forthcoming at the Journal of Health Economics 🎉 The open-access article is linked below. @warwickecon.bsky.social @econ.uzh.ch @theifs.bsky.social doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
Department of Economics @Universität Zürich🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 10/10/2025
We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
TODAY on the Economics Observatory – What are the effects of youth club closures in the UK? By @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social
buff.ly
What are the effects of youth club closures in the UK? - Economics Observatory
The widespread closing of youth clubs during the 2010s, driven by government austerity measures, led to falling educational performance and increasing rates of youth offending. The long-term…
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Reposted by Carmen Villa
Department of Economics @Universität Zürich🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 01/09/2025
A warm welcome on board 😀 to: Martina Pons, as an 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐠𝐞. And Carmen Villa (@carmenvillaecon.bsky.social), as an 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐚𝐜𝐨𝐛𝐬 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭.
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Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Excited, honoured, and proud on my first day as Assistant Professor at @econ.uzh.ch. Thanks for the kind welcome!
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