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In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.

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Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.

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Looking at all available precincts in Hudson County, Sherrill support is higher in the most-densely Hispanic turf & tracks closely with '21. Turnout is *higher* than '21 across the county-- and even more so in the most Hispanic precincts.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.

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NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers? Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026. Memo & toplines here: www.weareequis.us/research/202...

weareequis.us

July 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy | Equis Research

This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 1,614 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from July 7 to 17, 2025. This poll has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

If others have not already hooked you up, we can probably help cc @juan-machado.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/juan...

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly. Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

For my particular focus, will need to wrestle with “closeness to people with a migration background” as a distinguishing feature of New Left vs New Right

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

The chart is useful bc it shows views on border & future flow. As you know, that is half the story. The other half is views on long-term immigrants — which was the more defining battle in an earlier era.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig). Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Cue Montell Jordan: this is how you do it

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps: Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things. No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally

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Reposted by Carlos Odio

Antonio Cabán @antonio-caban.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

podcasts.apple.com

The Path Forward: Rebuilding Latino Support | The Latino Vote Episode 64 - Featuring Carlos Odio

Podcast Episode · The Latino Vote · 11/15/2024 · 53m

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Reposted by Carlos Odio

JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...

youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com

Where Do Dems Go From Here: Should They Go on Rogan, Build Their Own or Aim Policy Proposals at Young Men

Hint: It's all of the above

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

From this article bsky.app/profile/carl...

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.

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Carlos Odio @carlosodio.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises Great @propublica.org piece t.co/0ic8u6oGNm

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By comparison, Harris voters weren't ticket splitting as much. In Latino-heavy precincts, more "none of the above" than explicit Brown splitting; the opposite in the least Hispanic precincts.

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Here's another way to look at it. As Washoe precincts get more Hispanic, there is more ticket-splitting AND more de facto roll-off (Nevada's unique "none of the above" option) among Trump voters.

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In Washoe's heavily Latino precincts (30%+), 8.6% of Trump voters voted for Rosen, 8.9% voted "none of the above" or 3rd party & 1.5% skipped altogether.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Update: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot. Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped. (And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)

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Reposted by Carlos Odio

Nice analysis here of the Latino vote in 2024 from @carlosodio.bsky.social www.weareequis.us/research/pre...

weareequis.us

A Preliminary Look at the 2024 Latino Vote | Equis Research

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A Preliminary Look at the 2024 Latino Vote | Equis Research

Summary of our preliminary analysis of Latino vote here www.weareequis.us/research/pre...

weareequis.us

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In AZ-Sen, Gallego under-performed Biden, but by less – he hews closer to that '20 line.

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*Arizona* In majority Hispanic precincts across Maricopa (Phoenix) & Pima (Tucson): Clinton 2016: 80 Biden 2020: 75 Gallego 2024: 74 Harris 2024: 68

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In NV-Sen, Rosen came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.

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*Nevada* In majority-Hispanic precincts in Clark (Las Vegas): Clinton 2016: 84 Biden 2020: 75 Rosen 2024: 72 Harris 2024: 67 Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row.

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Slotkin joins Casey (PA) as Senate Dems who outperformed Harris in Hispanic areas but did not approach Biden '20 levels (unlike AZ/NV/WI)

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*Michigan* In 30%+ Hispanic precincts in Kent (Grand Rapids) vs. those in Detroit (not all of Wayne): Clinton 2016: 87 | 87 Biden 2020: 82 | 82 Slotkin 2024: 75 | 70 Harris 2024: 73 | 66

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22% of registered Latinos in Milwaukee live in majority Latino wards. That represents ~8% of all registered Latinos in the state.

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*Wisconsin* In majority Hispanic wards in Milwaukee County: Clinton 2016: 86 Biden 2020: 78 Baldwin 2024: 76 Harris 2024: 72 Note how close Baldwin got to Biden '20 in the Sen race.

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A word of caution that while dense Latino precincts allow us to narrow in on Hispanics vs. others, they only capture a small share of all Latinos in their respective counties. In the example of PA: 28% in Philly, 42% in Berks, 33% in Lehigh.

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PA: Senate vs. Presidential Casey out-performed Harris in Latino-majority precincts across Philly/Berks/Lehigh, but under-performed Biden '20 more than most other Senate Dems.

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*Pennsylvania* Across majority Hispanic precincts in Philly, Berks (Reading) & Lehigh (Allentown): Clinton 2016: 91 Biden 2020: 81 Casey 2024: 74 Harris 2024: 71

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For this analysis we wanted to compare support in Hispanic precincts across elections. But Hispanic density changes over time due to pop. growth and reprecincting. So we matched precinct results for a given year w/ the modeled racial composition of reg. voters for that year.

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