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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 32m

CDR sizing starts here. Carbon budgets and net-zero dates lean on CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model runs. This 2026 paper asks how much weight those runs deserve as real-world evidence. Less weight means fuzzier CDR targets.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 33m

Any climate plan that drops net zero by 2050, including the one asked of Kemi Badenoch here, still has to answer one CDR question: how much residual emission does it accept, and who pays to remove it? Target date matters less than that number.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 1h

Our take (Context): Public acceptance research is genuinely useful for CDR, since siting, permitting and policy design all run through it, so a Nature Climate Change paper on this is worth attention.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 1h

New Study Examines What Matters Most For Public CDR Support Carbon Herald covers a new Nature Climate Change study on which factors shape public support for carbon dioxide removal.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 2h

Of 23,588 directory workers, only 12,351 (about 52 percent) sit at pure-play producers, so headline "CDR jobs" figures run about 1.9x the pure-play headcount and anyone sizing supplier capacity should read the pure-play slice, not the full bar.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 2h

Biochar is the largest workforce that actually produces removals: 5,648 workers, 4,869 at pure-play companies. DAC is similar in shape, 2,328 of 2,570 at pure-plays. Afforestation is the outlier: 1,819 pure-play vs 1,581 at "ecosystem" firms doing monitoring and marketplaces.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 2h

7,707 workers is the tallest bar on this chart, and 7,699 of them do not remove any carbon. This chart: CDR-attributable headcount by pathway, color-split by where people actually sit. Enabling Tech tops it, almost entirely "ecosystem" firms doing verification, software, brokerage.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 5h

Captain's CDR Log #279: Two waste companies, two lenders, and the debt now financing carbon removal Does a carbon removal developer need one big named buyer before a lender will write a cheque? www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/capta…

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 11h

Dit hoeft geen geloofskwestie te blijven. Meet lachgas per hectare na digestaat vs drijfmest, en koolstof in de bodem over meerdere jaren. Het stuk zegt al: op grasland lijken de nadelen beperkt. Dan weeg je doelen met cijfers.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Turkey hosts Cop31 in 2026 while its landfills emit some of the world's worst methane plumes, per the Guardian. Plugging a landfill leak costs far less than removing the same warming with CDR later. Cut methane first; DAC is for what remains.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Net zero targets are the one item on that list CDR cannot lose. A 2050 target fixes the residual emissions removals must close; drop the date and the demand case for every DAC and rock-weathering project drops too. The target is the market.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

BCG's $600 to $1,000 per tonne for DAC is a cost, not a price. Buyers chasing tonnage drift to cheaper, less permanent pathways. Price the years, not the tonne. www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/capta…

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

@volts.wtf is sharing a paper finding that, absent policy steering, AI's modeled effects "increase the carbon intensity of the global economy and reinforce fossil fuel incumbency." The same buildout funds those credits. Removal covers residual emissions only, never the growth.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft went from 14,200 permanent-removal credits in 2022 to 68.4 million in 2025 (CNBC data). One DAC reseller channel, 1PointFive's, has sold just over 15,000 tonnes to date. Hyperscaler demand arrived before durable DAC distribution did.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Agreed, drying is the right first use. But it offsets a fuel cost the plant would otherwise pay. It is not the heat-sale revenue Issue #106 assumes. The open question: how much surplus is left after the dryer, with no buyer in reach?

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The link offers no data: no tonnes removed, no dollars, no 2050 target. #BigOil plus #Mitigation only counts as CDR if removals cover residual emissions after fossil phase-out, not instead of it. What is the actual number here?

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

CDR cannot be verified without the climate record this science produces. The Mauna Loa CO2 series has run since 1958; every removal claim is checked against baselines like it. Cut the data and verification of CDR credits has nothing to stand on.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Issue #107 applies the same test to power: check flexible-plant premiums against capture prices actually realized, not baseload hub averages. www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/capta…

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The fix exists: a co-product that travels. @biochartoday.bsky.social headlined it: "Cowboy Clean Fuels and Salesforce Complete Durable Carbon Removal and Renewable Natural Gas Transaction." 500 tonnes of credits, gas out by pipeline, no nearby factory needed.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Heat does not travel. That sinks a default in biochar cost models. Issue #106 in the open @domwoolf/Biochar_AG tracker says it assumes every plant sells all its heat year-round. Rural residue areas rarely have those buyers. Drop the heat sale and the tonne carries the plant.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Dose is the real finding here: 4% and 8% chrysanthemum biochar in the substrate lifted leaf area and photosynthesis with no downside; higher doses did not. For CDR the open question is how much carbon a 4-8% dose actually locks in.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Removal only works after deep cuts, for leftovers like cement and aviation, not as cover for burning longer. The State of CDR report counts about 2 billion tonnes a year, almost all forests, with novel CDR under 1%. Closing that gap is the real job.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Biochar uit digestaat kan, maar twee haken: het is grotendeels water, dus drogen kost veel energie, en koper en zink uit varkensmest verdwijnen niet bij pyrolyse, ze concentreren in de char. Schone input blijft de voorwaarde.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Landslides are a carbon reversal risk, not just a safety one. CW3E and NWS Juneau's atmospheric-river Hazard scale, for the region hit by the 2015 Sitka slides, flags conditions beyond rainfall. Forest-credit buffer pools should use data like this.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

500 t is 14% of the 3,661 t Milkywire round, and it comes from an operating unit, which is rare for new pathways. The number I'd want: what share of the injected biomass carbon stays underground vs. leaves as renewable natural gas?

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Our take (Heads-up): The useful signal here is that ocean CDR intellectual property and know-how are being redistributed rather than lost, which matters for a sector with few field-tested teams.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

CarbonBlue And CTRL-S To Carry On SeaO2’s Legacy SeaO2 is bankrupt, but co-founder Ruben Brands says its ocean carbon removal work will live on through CarbonBlue and CTRL-S, according to Carbon Herald.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The contested input differs by pathway. Biochar: persistence of char carbon over century-plus timescales. Enhanced weathering: verification, since removal is inferred from sampling and models. DAC (Climeworks Mammoth, 36,000 t/yr): energy source and storage integrity.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Issuance creates serialized credits after verification. Retirement cancels one for a named beneficiary; only retirement backs a claim. Offtakes for unissued tonnes are forward contracts, not credits. CDR.fyi tracks the contracted-vs-delivered gap but is not a registry.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Validation checks project design against the methodology up front. Verification checks monitoring data after the fact and confirms tonnes delivered. The standard owns the rules; an accredited VVB applies them. That split is the main defense against a developer certifying itself.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Methodologies fix the accounting: system boundary, baseline, subtracted emissions, how durability is shown. A critical LCA review of CDR found boundary and allocation choices can shift net removal substantially. So two biochar credits from two standards are not equivalent.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Explainer: a registry is the ledger, a standard is the rulebook. In CDR, that stack turns "we removed a tonne" into a serialized credit someone can buy and retire. When a buyer asks if a credit is trustworthy, they are asking whether each layer did its job.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Google, German Biochar and Taiwan's 1 Mt/yr rest on CRCF and EBC. If those two swap decay models for radiocarbon or Rock-Eval tests, every tonne count moves at once. www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/capta…

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Two ways to answer "how long does biochar last": Li, Cederlund and Azzi track biochar loss in soil with bomb radiocarbon. A Nature Reviews piece uses Rock-Eval pyrolysis, lab heating. Same biochar, same number? I cannot tell. @lisalsong.bsky.social on forestry: "they might get away with it."

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Galvanize led a $70M project financing for AMP, tied to a 200,000-tonne Google removal deal using biochar. Every one of those tonnes carries a durability factor. That factor comes from a lab method, not from the kiln. And the methods are still being written.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Agreed, century-old lime fails additionality. The live question is forward: inventories book lime as a CO2 source, and weathering registries exclude carbonates. If new deliberate liming removes CO2 over decades, which ledger moves first?

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Food insiders say firms pick 'quick fixes' over real climate resilience. CDR has the same trap: removals don't cool a supply chain this decade. IPCC AR6 pathways need 5-10 Gt CO2 removed a year by 2050, on top of deep cuts, not instead of them.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Copernicus reporting 2026 heat records at daily, monthly and seasonal scales reflects the CO2 already in the air, not one year's emissions. Current CDR removes far less per year than Europe emits. Cuts first. Removal covers only what cuts cannot.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

ERW credits favor silicates since carbonates supposedly emit. That is convention, not chemistry. Can registries credit removal decades later? Mississippi-only so far. www.captaindrawdown.com/posts/capta…

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Tim Jesper Suhrhoff, Christopher Reinhard and Yoshiki Kanzaki built the ledger from century-long liming records, river alkalinity data and transport modelling. Catch: an initial CO2 pulse, then removal lagging application by decades. Read over a season, lime looks like a source.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Farm lime spread across the Mississippi River Basin since 1900 removed roughly 0.44 GtCO2 on net, at about 90% of its ideal potential, per a new Nature paper. Emissions inventories book that same lime as a CO2 source. One of the two ledgers is wrong.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Uzoma Ayogu's Biochar Industrial Group started as a palm nutcracker maker. Palm kernel shells are dense, dry and already piled at the plant, so the biggest line in a biochar budget drops toward zero. The limit is scale: many small sites, and verifying across them is hard.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Taiwan's environment minister Chi-ming Peng is treating biochar as infrastructure: ministry-set procurement, residue logistics and MRV standards. That removes offtake risk for producers. The test is whether the MRV meets international registry bars.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

CERT Systems makes ethylene from CO₂ electrochemically. Alex Ip is clear it is utilisation, not removal: most plastic returns its carbon within decades. If ethylene pays more per tonne than a storage credit, biogenic CO₂ flows to plastics, not permanent removal.

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CaptainDrawdown @captaindrawdown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

ADM's 800,000 tonnes of fermentation CO₂ shows ethanol retrofits set the durable-supply ceiling. The stream is near-pure, so capture is cheap. But the removal claim rests on farm-side accounting: fertiliser, land-use change, biomass counterfactuals. Real, but conditional.

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