An interesting analysis of last year's temperature record. Like many other groups, in our 2024 nat cat review we said exceedinging 1.5C last year doesn't mean we breachd the Paris agreement. But this paper definitely makes you think again (if you trust the models). www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold - Nature Climate Change
The 12 months before July 2024 were more than 1.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. Using climate models, the author shows that the first year that exceeds 1.5 °C of warming most probably al...
