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Benjamin Smart

@bthsmart.bsky.social
410 followers 53 following 516 posts

Director of the Centre for Philosophy of Epidemiology, Medicine and Public Health, University of Johannesburg. Loves being a dad. Bad golfer. Not my equations in the profile pic.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 10h
Here's a link to my recent interview on SABC News on the death of a lab technician at a Siberian anti-plague research institute. #PneumonicPlague #MedSky #Outbreak youtu.be/IPTs_Mom1js?...
youtu.be
Suspected plague kills one person in Russia - Prof Benjamin Smart
YouTube video by SABC News
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
As a white British professor in South Africa. The truth: 1. There's lots of pro-black affirmative action legislation in South Africa. 2. Following centuries of colonialism and later Apartheid, it's entirely justified. 3. There is NO white genocide. 4. There IS rampant violent crime and corruption.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
At this point, if it turned out that #DonaldTrump arranged 9/11 so he could own the tallest building in New York, I wouldn't be surprised.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Incomprehensible levels or narcissistic fuckwittery. If it were down to Trump, the newspaper headlines on September 12th would have been "Donald Trump new owner of tallest Building in New York".
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/theres-a-1...
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
There’s a 100% Chance AI is Going to Kill Us All within 6 Months
Or... why Big Tech Bullshit Spells Trouble for Semiconductors
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
As #democrats go into the #midterms desperate to stop the carnage of Trump's kakistocracy, they must remember that hyper-progressive social policies are deeply unpopular. Pennsylvania will buy universal healthcare, but not trans girls in pro sports. Maybe deny republicans their fuel for 6 weeks.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
What can we expect as a desperate Trump's flails into the midterms? Could a ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia be on the cards? The case for optimism is real. #predictionmarketprof #Trump #Politics #Ukraine @polymarket.extwitter.link @polymarket.com predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
Trading the Midterms
Capitalize on the Last Kicks of a Dying Horse
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Coming to the conclusion that the existential threats #AI are meant to pose are likely largely marketing strategies. If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development. Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
My favourite part of the #Trump convention speech was when he tried to bribe hundreds of millions of Americans to vote Republican. Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer. There are no lines that won't be crossed. None. #politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The entshittification of the West continues unabated.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Are you sure it was a technical lie? I think he's legitimately delusional. I think he probably believed it at the time. 25th Amendment
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The US fired their most seasoned diplomats and generals. Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence. They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace. Why isn't it working? What more could be done? #kakistocracy
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The latest in my series on prediction market trading. This miniseries on sports might be called: how not to lose TOO much money gambling. But actually, so far these strategies have been very effective for me. Here's strategy 2. @Polymarket #Sports predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
Profitable Strategies for Prediction Market Sports Contracts: Episode 2
Trading the Fixture List
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Last look at the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Reunion Island. A magnificent week tasting the best Creole and French food, building research relationships, marking, and discovering volcanos and coral reefs.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
A whole different kind of nutjob president. But personally... I think he's an unlikely pick despite what the prediction markets say. My guess is Rubio or, and bear with me... Tucker Carlson, for Republican nominee.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
That's incredible! But... Morning glory cloud? Surely not. Sure surely not. 😂
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I'm uneducated in the history of feminism, but it's interesting reading the diversity of comments among what, let's face it, is a largely leftist Bluesky audience. Half the comments thank Steinem, half criticize. Whatever the truth: it's easy to be a keyboard warrior. Whose life have YOU improved?
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
It seems to me that the current Supreme Court is so Trumpian that if anything is to be achieved post 2028, the democrats MUST load the court. It probably follows that the next Republican government will do the same, and so on. I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I fully understand that joy.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Absolutely!
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
AOC is awesome. Real shame she's completely unelectable as president. AOC cannot win Pennsylvania. Republicans will paint her (falsely) as a communist. Plus she's a woman of colour - and America is racist and misogynist. I wish that weren't true - but it is.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
So... Just bombing for the heck of it? Why not just burn billions of dollars and commit war crimes for no reason.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Next forecast: Marine LePenn (Trump with a baguette and a few more brain cells) is excellent value at 33c. She's almost certain to make the run-off and reprice to 47%-80% depending on whom she faces. French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced. predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
Is French Fascism Underpriced?
Or - why investing on desired outcomes makes you poor.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Shame on the supreme court. Kudos to the CJ but still - Trump has shat on the whitehouse and his turd will forever blight the capital.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
It doesn't take a genius to know that a Gavin Newsom or a John Ossoff or a Josh Shapiro has a better chance of winning Pennsylvania than an AOC or a Kammala Harris or anyone DSA. Not saying it's right. Not saying they're better candidates. But it's just the way it is. And Pennsylvania matters.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Donald Trump: media showman Ronald Reagan: movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger: movie star Vlodomir Zelensky: comedian Voters confuse the TV personality for reality. Trump was not a successful businessman. He's a serial failure. He played a successful businessman in a TV show.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Vance led farcical, failed negotiation that lasted a pathetically small amount of time. John Kerry negotiated the JCPOA for 9 months. And you're wrong, high finance backed Trump, whose only success is as a TV personality. In all other ways he's just a failed businessman, sex pest & trust fund baby.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Battle of the dimwits.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
There's a primary, and JD Vance will get blown away. The man has zero charm, zero charisma, and he's dimwitted. The only reason he has anything to say at all is that Tucker Carlson talks to him, and Tucker will run himself. No - it'll be Rubio or Carlson. I think prediction markets have this wrong.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Vance lacks the charisma (and intelligence) required. Hegseth is an idiotic alcoholic Fox News presenter. No. It'll be Rubio or possibly the man in Vance's ear: Tucker Carlson. When Carlson stops talking, Vance will have nothing to say. Tucker Vs Ossoff or Newsom (AOC is suicide for democrats imho).
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Yes - it's because of sleepy Joe Biden that the oil reserves are depleted. Not because the Strait of Hormuz has been shut for 6 months due to an illegal war that could never have happened had Trump not torn up the JCPOA.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
How to make sports gambling a little less gamblie on prediction markets (albeit, still pretty gamblie). Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only. @polymarket.extwitter.link #predictionmarkets substack.com/@predictionm...
substack.com
Prediction Market Prof (@predictionmarketprof)
The first in a short series on sports trading strategy. Tip number 1: If you can, be in and out before kick-off. If you like this kind of content, please like and subscribe to my newsletter. If you h...
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'm no antivaxer but let's not give them ammunition - one of these patients was a newborn that died of a ruptured spleen. The child's death was not caused by measles.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Saint-Denis, Reunion Island.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Trump is cartoonishly awful.
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Reposted by Benjamin Smart
MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 25/08/2026
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says RFK Jr. offered federal help after two unvaccinated people died from measles, the first U.S. deaths this year. Shapiro declined, saying PA could handle it, and confronted Kennedy, telling him: “There’s real life consequences to spreading misinformation.”
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I thought an epistemic asshole was going to be "one who feels the prefacing nearly every word in the English language with "epistemic" is publication-worthy". Ps. Actually this sounds pretty interesting.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I mean... The two Sarah Connor is already among us, I'm sure
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Natalie is feeding Trump his own faeces.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I recorded a series of short lectures and stuck them on YouTube: #philosophy of #science through the lens of medicine. Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides. Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself. Check it out, here: youtube.com/@profsmartle...
youtube.com
Prof Smart Lectures
@ProfSmartLectures contains academic content, lectures, podcasts, and commentary by Professor Benjamin Smart through ProfSmartMedia. Benjamin Smart is full professor in philosophy of science at the Un...
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
open.substack.com
Why Zille is the Polymarket Favorite for Johannesburg’s Mayor (and why that’ll change)
Fading the Hype on Joburg’s Mayoral Chain
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
An alcoholic Fox News presenter runs the world's most powerful military. #Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east. The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice. Madness. Total madness. #Kakistocracy
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This is the most convincing flat Earth argument I've heard by far.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Cool. Just get Elon to build a rocket that travels near light speed and we'll be there just after the next climate change mass extinction.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Sorry to hear that, Chris. So sorry to hear about the problems at Notts. I hope you and philosophy in general aren't affected when everything is finalised. What a mess. My years as a PhD student at Nottingham philosophy were extremely special. Forever grateful.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I currently feel like completing the marking and giving the feedback I owe, whilst also completing all the other teaching/research/admin my job entails, whilst also fulfilling my duties as a husband and father, is completely impossible in a 24 hours day when I need 6 hours sleep. That feeling sucks.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This MIGHT be the best bit of news I've heard in a VERY long time. Does anyone have links to informed people writing on the specifics? #Moderna #Cancer #Health #Medicine
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
And btw - Im British, but now live in South Africa and work and publish on inequality and health in the region. I'm deeply in favour of affirmative action, and those policies can be pressed here because the disadvantaged are the majority. It's a practical argument, not a reflection of my principles.
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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
For sure. Which is why it's important to learn the lessons of Trump 2024 and not shove deeply unpopular views and (granted) equity-improving policies down the throats of moderates (who buy "no discrimination" but reject much beyond that) whilst labelling every white male voter a racist misogynist.
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