iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

At this point, if it turned out that #DonaldTrump arranged 9/11 so he could own the tallest building in New York, I wouldn't be surprised.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

As #democrats go into the #midterms desperate to stop the carnage of Trump's kakistocracy, they must remember that hyper-progressive social policies are deeply unpopular. Pennsylvania will buy universal healthcare, but not trans girls in pro sports. Maybe deny republicans their fuel for 6 weeks.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

What can we expect as a desperate Trump's flails into the midterms? Could a ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia be on the cards? The case for optimism is real. #predictionmarketprof #Trump #Politics #Ukraine @polymarket.extwitter.link @polymarket.com predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...

predictionmarketprof.substack.com

Trading the Midterms

Capitalize on the Last Kicks of a Dying Horse

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Coming to the conclusion that the existential threats #AI are meant to pose are likely largely marketing strategies. If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development. Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

My favourite part of the #Trump convention speech was when he tried to bribe hundreds of millions of Americans to vote Republican. Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer. There are no lines that won't be crossed. None. #politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The US fired their most seasoned diplomats and generals. Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence. They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace. Why isn't it working? What more could be done? #kakistocracy

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The latest in my series on prediction market trading. This miniseries on sports might be called: how not to lose TOO much money gambling. But actually, so far these strategies have been very effective for me. Here's strategy 2. @Polymarket #Sports predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...

predictionmarketprof.substack.com

Profitable Strategies for Prediction Market Sports Contracts: Episode 2

Trading the Fixture List

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Last look at the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Reunion Island. A magnificent week tasting the best Creole and French food, building research relationships, marking, and discovering volcanos and coral reefs.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

It seems to me that the current Supreme Court is so Trumpian that if anything is to be achieved post 2028, the democrats MUST load the court. It probably follows that the next Republican government will do the same, and so on. I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Next forecast: Marine LePenn (Trump with a baguette and a few more brain cells) is excellent value at 33c. She's almost certain to make the run-off and reprice to 47%-80% depending on whom she faces. French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced. predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...

predictionmarketprof.substack.com

Is French Fascism Underpriced?

Or - why investing on desired outcomes makes you poor.

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 25/08/2026

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says RFK Jr. offered federal help after two unvaccinated people died from measles, the first U.S. deaths this year. Shapiro declined, saying PA could handle it, and confronted Kennedy, telling him: “There’s real life consequences to spreading misinformation.”

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I recorded a series of short lectures and stuck them on YouTube: #philosophy of #science through the lens of medicine. Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides. Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself. Check it out, here: youtube.com/@profsmartle...

youtube.com

Prof Smart Lectures

@ProfSmartLectures contains academic content, lectures, podcasts, and commentary by Professor Benjamin Smart through ProfSmartMedia. Benjamin Smart is full professor in philosophy of science at the Un...

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

An alcoholic Fox News presenter runs the world's most powerful military. #Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east. The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice. Madness. Total madness. #Kakistocracy

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

I currently feel like completing the marking and giving the feedback I owe, whilst also completing all the other teaching/research/admin my job entails, whilst also fulfilling my duties as a husband and father, is completely impossible in a 24 hours day when I need 6 hours sleep. That feeling sucks.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

This MIGHT be the best bit of news I've heard in a VERY long time. Does anyone have links to informed people writing on the specifics? #Moderna #Cancer #Health #Medicine

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The politics of inequality. Why AOC is favourite for the democratic nomination, and where the prediction market trading opportunisties lie. #2028Election @TheDemocrats @AOC @CAgovernor @PolymarketIntel open.substack.com/pub/predicti...

open.substack.com

The Politics of Inequality

Democratic Socialism, Swing States, and Prediction Market Opportunities

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Shocking treatment of Jason Arday. Did he deserve to lose his job? Well, possibly. Did he deserve to lose his life? Obviously not - but after the relentless hounding by the media, and all these people who suddenly saw fit to critique his work, nobody can be surprised. Take responsibility. Be better

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Need to hedge your investment portfolio against the AI bubble bursting? Think put options are too expensive? Consider using prediction markets. open.substack.com/pub/predicti... #notfinancialadvice #finance #trading @polymarket.extwitter.link

open.substack.com

How to Hedge AI-heavy Portfolios

The AI Bubble, Michael Burry, and the Ultimate Prediction Market Hedge

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

open.substack.com/pub/predicti... Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing. #USpolitics #Trump #Finance

open.substack.com

Is Trump 2028 a Real Possibility?

What Prediction Markets tell us about the next President (and where the trading opportunities lie)

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

Trish Greenhalgh @trishgreenhalgh.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

“Fauci has devoted more than 50 years to public service, leading NIAID and the US through the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the 2001 anthrax attacks, SARS, pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, & other infectious disease threats.” Thanks @gavinyamey.bsky.social for honouring this hero. www.bmj.com/content/394/...

bmj.com

Fauci’s Senate hearing riled up the MAGA base—but at the cost of damaging public health

The vilification of Anthony Fauci by Senate Republicans will erode trust in science, curtail international research collaborations, and deter scientists and health experts from entering public service...

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

I delivered my inaugural lecture last week. I argue that Humanities must play a central role in the development of AI. We must tailor new technologies to further human flourishing. Check it out (please): www.youtube.com/live/Qv1iyPp... #publichealth #AI #AIethics #philosophyofmedicind

youtube.com

Professorial Inauguration: Professor Benjamin Smart | Faculty of Humanities

YouTube video by University of Johannesburg YouTube Channel

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

Tom Cochrane @doctorcochrane.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

My old friend Ben Smart gave his inaugural lecture on 'health as a property of complex systems'. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv1i... It's based on his recent book on the philosophy of public health. Well worth checking out! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

link.springer.com

The Philosophy of Public Health

This book, inspired by health policymaking during the Covid-19 pandemic, proposes an innovative capacities-based approach to understanding public health

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Should anyone be remotely interested, I am delivering my inaugural lecture tomorrow Wednesday 5th at 4pm GMT (5pm UK, 6pm South Africa). You can watch it live, here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv1i...

youtube.com

Professorial Inauguration: Professor Benjamin Smart | Faculty of Humanities

YouTube video by University of Johannesburg YouTube Channel

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Wow. It didn't take long for the #Trump effect to infiltrate the #reviewer2 space. I just had a paper rejected for daring to (implicitly) assume in a #SOTL paper that white people aren't intrinsically smarter than black people. 😡

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Working at the University of the Free State this week. Working on a couple of things, including a casual theory for change for the effect on vaccine #misinformation prevalence by using DMs to redirect early-stage "misfluencers" into echochambers, so they waste their time there. Very fun.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 25/05/2025

Genuine question: in cases where people can lose weight simply by eating healthier diets, and assuming there are no restrictions on them doing that (they just prefer not to eat healthily), are weight loss drugs an ethical use of public funds, assuming they do improve health.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Chilling. Grok spreads White genocide misinformation about South Africa. Whilst many white farmers have been murdered, the truth is, your risk of death by violent crime as a poor black person in places like the Cape Flats is much higher: archive.ph/2025.05.17-1...

archive.ph

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 02/05/2025

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will direct federal health agencies to explore potential new treatments for measles as the U.S. faces its largest outbreak in 25 years. Experts fear the decision could have grave consequences, as studies show the existing vaccine is 97% effective in preventing infection.

nytimes.com

RFK Jr. Orders Search for New Measles Treatments Instead of Urging Vaccination

Decades of research have turned up no miracle treatment for measles, but studies show the M.M.R. shot is 97 percent effective in preventing the disease.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

In the UK and Europe, we call it "Austerity". In America they call it #DOGE, and celebrate it prancing around with a chainsaw as the world's richest man takes away 10s of thousands of middle class jobs, and destroys hundreds of health social development projects. Evil genius.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Goodness me. Is Trump planning a war in 2027/28 already? Isn't that the only circumstance under which a 3rd term is permissible?

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Why are people surprised that universities are left wing spaces? When your job is not the accumulation of wealth, but to think about health, justice, humanity, and science - you care more about humanity and the just distribution of wealth than the billionaires. Being left wing is NOT an insult.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

#Tesla cars are ugly (some more than others), overpriced, and the majority shareholder has tried to buy (quite successfully) control of the free world, and decimate it. There are plenty of other electric cars. Buy those. We can't bankrupt #Musk, but collectively we can hurt him a little.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

My friend just paid his taxes in the US in the most sobering, but equally hilarious way. #Trump #IsraelPalestine #Genocide

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

I will not attend a single academic conference, workshop, or accept any invitation to any institution (except at Harvard or places that take a similar stance) in the USA whilst Donald #Trump is president. We will not holiday there, we will boycott American products and foods.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Many congratulations to #HarvardUniversity for effectively paying USD2.2bn to retain credibility as a centre of academic and social excellence. It shouldn't have been necessary, but let's hope other higher education institutions can follow their example.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Can somebody please get #RFK to watch a YouTube Video on the Dunning Kruger effect?

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

So... a South African/British acquaintance of mine, with permanent residency in the US, was detained, flown to Texas, and has been shackled in a warehouse for 3 weeks. He's no idea why. He was expecting his citizenship within 3 months. #Trump is a Nazi. The stories of those around him are horrific.

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

If you have an exposure that improves the wellbeing of millions of people, but is highly socially destructive and devastating to the health of a relative minority, should governments strive to eliminate that exposure? Does it depend on the ratios and the degree of wellbeing improvement?

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

#RFK is about to "start" a bunch of autism research (that's actually been going on for decades). Only, he's going to fudge the data, p-hack, and so on, until he reaches his predetermined and false conclusion that vaccines cause #autism. Which they definitely don't. It's utter madness.

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

Iryna Voichuk @irynavoichuk.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

This is Tymofii. Russia killed him with a cluster-loaded Iskander missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. He was only 3 years old. #Ukraine

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Benjamin Smart @bthsmart.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

A famous MIT professor at a South African policy conference yesterday: "it will take me 6 years to earn back what Trump singlehandedly wiped off my 401k in 48 Hours". I wonder for how many Americans this is the reality.

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Reposted by Benjamin Smart

Sen. Cory Booker @booker.senate.gov · 01/04/2025

I’ve taken the Senate floor and will speak for as long as I’m physically able to lift the voices of Americans who are being harmed and not being heard in this moment of crisis. Watch here:

youtube.com

Live: Speaking on Trump, Musk, and America’s Moral Moment on the Senate Floor | Senator Cory Booker

YouTube video by Senator Cory Booker

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