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Brun

@brunfpl.bsky.social
1.3K followers 392 following 451 posts

Analytically (ill) informed sports fan. FPL player. Inaugural winner of Elite Analytic 64 League. EV chaser, jam hoarder, variance hugger.

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Yeah it’s tough without being able to adjust for those fixtures. All I’d say is with the extra free FTs we get in 16 for AFCON and, if you’ve got say FH left, the moves may actually not be too impacted by the schedule as there’s still a lot of means to manage whatever comes
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Always been Review and just him mate. Sertalp used his data for Optimized site but now does his own thing with Solio
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
It’s @fplreview.com you’d need to ask to get an answer on this mate
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
GW5: 49 and a green of ~100k. 2FTs already used for GW6 with FH and Wc to fall back on if issues arise.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
GW5: Rolling. Will have 2 FTs in 6 which leaves lots of paths open to me and that’s far more valuable than any singular move I can make this week. Good luck all, especially those with the same team or a triple Leeds stack.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
GW4: 74 points and a green arrow. Not sure how sustainable relying on Salah injury time returns will continue to be but happy to take the points. Rolling into GW6 would be ideal but will be dependent on Murillo’s injury. FH6, WC6 or saving those chips for later all on the table
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
GW3: Green arrow to just outside top 1mil. 3FTs to see what crops up at end of transfer window and through the IB. Can fall back to WC in worst case scenarios. Enjoy the break all
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
GW3: Rollin. Variance will determine whether this is Chamillionaire or Weird Al Yankovic version of the early 2000’s classic. May be valuing info too high but hoping the squad is strong enough for this GW. Will review paths in GW4 post window closing & IB. Kermit gif ready incase
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
GW2: FPL is so back baby. Not gonna complain as many very good players have been FPL’d far worse than I so far this season. Stay safe out there everyone and remember there are cup games midweek too before so don’t start getting all twitchy with that transfer finger
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Most probably will but I really, really hope from a Leeds’ perspective that doesn’t happen
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
GW2: Rolling, Palmer captain and benching Paq over Thiago after bringing my own mins to the party. Good luck gang.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
You’ll be fine mate, 57 isn’t that poor and there’s plenty of time to catch up
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Reposted by Brun
Wee Rogue @wee-rogue.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
New football season got me thinking about the difference in difficulty between the English Premier League and Championship. I took a look at how teams' ratios of goals scored to goals conceded changed between seasons over the last 10 years:
Data visualisation.
Title: "How much harder is the premier league than the championship?"
Horizontal x-axis: "A look at the change in teams' ratio of goals scored to goals conceded between seasons".

Body of the plot shows three frequency/density distributions ("bell curves", roughly, showing an aggregate view of where along the x-axis the data has tended to collect):

The "season after relegation" distribution shows a bi-modal (two-humped) distribution with the tallest peak at around +100%.

The "season after promotion" distribution shows a roughly Normal distribution with mean just below -100%.

The "same division as before" distribution is approximately Normal with mean 0%.

The caption reads: "Where a change of -100% is roughly equivalent to scoring 50% more goals than your opponents one season followed by 50% less than your opponents the next".
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
GW1: Took the ~14EV on BB which sets me down a flexible path with a bit of a hybrid team. BB didn’t come through in terms of RP but rest of the squad carried me to an OK week. Aim is to roll as much as possible with GW4 a nice point to assess timings for other chips
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
I’m not particularly bullish on them long term but think that first fixture is plum and makes sense to attack for those on BB1 mate
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Oh I didn’t mean it as a criticism,we all know we need a new GK & I was interested in your views on who we should go for. Agree that I like the rumoured list. When you look at the GKs from those teams who stayed up, they need to be more than just a Mes upgrade and actually be good. 🤞 we get it right
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
With this in mind, how much can a good shot stopper help in the us in the prem, considering even a solidly set up promoted team is likely to be lower league for xGC regardless. Who should Leeds be targeting in this position and why is it Lucas Perri?
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Really enjoyed this guys. One thing you didn’t touch on was GK. Looking at the last 4 teams to go up and stay up (huge sample I know) they had Raya, Leno, Henderson and Neto in goal. 2/4 had +psxg that season and 3/4 have careers with +psxg (Raya is hovering at -0.1/90 and has seasons with + numbers
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I just can’t help to feel that you can spend that fee/wages more effectively on either better players who can start (I don’t think we want him getting more than 1500mins in an ideal world) or role players with more room to grow and develop
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I’m not particularly moved by his previous season’s data, especially considering that his age means there’s no resale value here. He’s a fine squad player and if he doesn’t limit our other activity I can kind of get on board.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I agree that he didn’t have as much license to get forward last season when he came on (due to game state and the makeup of that midfield 3) but I’m not sure he was ever the anchor and the non creative/xg numbers are still worrying if you factor in the role change.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Blud
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Someone talk me round on Leeds’ business so far please. Early in the window I know but feeling pretty underwhelmed (not only with the actual signings but some of the rumours too).
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Good luck to my fellow sickos playing any version of CWC fantasy. May never touch grass at this rate
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
If there was ever a time for Blue Sky to launch group messsges…
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
For now I’m enjoying watching us pressure free go out and play the type of football we did today. Not often we get to just sit and watch stress free as Leeds fans but it was a great experience tonight
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
He genuinely is. With the intensity of the prem and the increased defending we’re going to have to do in that league you’ve got to utilise guys like him more. Actually think our core is a good base to build from if recruitment is handled by the club and Farke is less stubborn in his lineups/approach
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Logging back in just to say Leeds United are massive and free Largie Ramazani
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Never truly left mate! Not like us to do it the easier way either but glad to not be stressing going into these final couple of games
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Clear skill issue in my view
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Yeah, as the likelihood of 36 being a double reduced it made more sense for me to use it in 34. The EV loss if I held and there wasn’t a double was significant. I think there’s only about 5/6 of us I’ve found on a similar path but I’ve always liked differential EV 😂
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Disappointed, I had you odds on favourite to like/reply first mate. Coat me a bomb here
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Appreciate it Goose, here’s to a green arrow bonanza to end the season.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
All good thanks pal, hit AM last week for Arteta and hoping for a Slot haul this week 🤞
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Been a while since I’ve posted for a variety of reasons but if anyone still cares (please touch grass and reassess your life) I’ve dropped to 50k and will be going into GW34 with the below. Now drop this here a like and seriously, go touch some grass
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Please keep quiet before people start copying my optimal non-FH Brighton defensive triple up. Thanks JC
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Jammy bastard is the correct spelling I believe but thanks Goose. Only went there to leave a straight route to Emery for AM this GW if needed
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Logging in after the longest GW ever. Enjoying the TC posvar and a green back into top 100k. Decisions for this week rest on Watkins’ fitness and chip strategy. Been an age since I whirred up the Dell Inspiron but could be time to dust it off once again for some heavy solves
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Double to blank rather. Guess the viz’s didn’t help me that much in the end 🤦‍♂️
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Haha I can’t pretend I’m not regretting that slightly now. Have set myself up ok for 29 but it’s the later transition from blank to double where I’m hoping the Venn diagram is kind to me.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Absolutely incredible work mate. Lots to digest but presented in a way that even a simpleton like me can grasp. Already excited for the Venn diagrams
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Reposted by Brun
Jonny Currie 🚀 @jonnyc.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks Viz dump + logic explained 🧵
Table showing PL fixtures and potential rearrangements for gameweeks 23 to 38Table showing probability of fixture rearrangementsTable showing probability of blank and double gameweeks
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Real life getting in the way of an update for last 2 GWs.You’ve not missed much. Horror show in 21 has me almost tripling my rank in that time period. Solanke injury taken me off initial path and means a certain Swede has finally joined the lineup up front. No FH so navigating 29 will be interesting
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
To be fair I’m talking historically with Digne and Konsa. Digne genuinely the biggest troll in the game for my money. Watkins benched the week I FH’d him in killed me this year. May force exclude Villa forever
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
I’ve been stung a bit by those home games though, last two and SOU in particular. Same as fantasy, where Digne, Watkins and Konsa just love to troll me
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Yeah Villa have absolutely done me too.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
GW20: Return of the posvar. 50% green. EV isn’t great next week but really hoping to roll for next couple going into a period of both high EV (doubles, AM chip?!) and low EV events (blanks and some low scoring GWs). With FH spent already will likely need more FTs than paths other people are on.
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
media.tenor.com
kermit the frog is wearing a scarf and getting covered in snow
ALT: kermit the frog is wearing a scarf and getting covered in snow
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
You misspelt Bruno cuz
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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Thanks mate. Truth be told I ended up having so many other fires to put out that I was never in a position where I considered selling him (for some teams I think selling him totally made sense). More than happy to jam my way into another one of his hauls mind 😂
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