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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

GW5: 49 and a green of ~100k. 2FTs already used for GW6 with FH and Wc to fall back on if issues arise.

Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

GW5: Rolling. Will have 2 FTs in 6 which leaves lots of paths open to me and that’s far more valuable than any singular move I can make this week. Good luck all, especially those with the same team or a triple Leeds stack.

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

GW4: 74 points and a green arrow. Not sure how sustainable relying on Salah injury time returns will continue to be but happy to take the points. Rolling into GW6 would be ideal but will be dependent on Murillo’s injury. FH6, WC6 or saving those chips for later all on the table

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 31/08/2025

GW3: Green arrow to just outside top 1mil. 3FTs to see what crops up at end of transfer window and through the IB. Can fall back to WC in worst case scenarios. Enjoy the break all

0100

Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

GW3: Rollin. Variance will determine whether this is Chamillionaire or Weird Al Yankovic version of the early 2000’s classic. May be valuing info too high but hoping the squad is strong enough for this GW. Will review paths in GW4 post window closing & IB. Kermit gif ready incase

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

GW2: FPL is so back baby. Not gonna complain as many very good players have been FPL’d far worse than I so far this season. Stay safe out there everyone and remember there are cup games midweek too before so don’t start getting all twitchy with that transfer finger

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

GW2: Rolling, Palmer captain and benching Paq over Thiago after bringing my own mins to the party. Good luck gang.

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Reposted by Brun

Wee Rogue @wee-rogue.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

New football season got me thinking about the difference in difficulty between the English Premier League and Championship. I took a look at how teams' ratios of goals scored to goals conceded changed between seasons over the last 10 years:

Data visualisation.
Title: "How much harder is the premier league than the championship?"
Horizontal x-axis: "A look at the change in teams' ratio of goals scored to goals conceded between seasons".

Body of the plot shows three frequency/density distributions ("bell curves", roughly, showing an aggregate view of where along the x-axis the data has tended to collect):

The "season after relegation" distribution shows a bi-modal (two-humped) distribution with the tallest peak at around +100%.

The "season after promotion" distribution shows a roughly Normal distribution with mean just below -100%.

The "same division as before" distribution is approximately Normal with mean 0%.

The caption reads: "Where a change of -100% is roughly equivalent to scoring 50% more goals than your opponents one season followed by 50% less than your opponents the next".

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

GW1: Took the ~14EV on BB which sets me down a flexible path with a bit of a hybrid team. BB didn’t come through in terms of RP but rest of the squad carried me to an OK week. Aim is to roll as much as possible with GW4 a nice point to assess timings for other chips

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

Someone talk me round on Leeds’ business so far please. Early in the window I know but feeling pretty underwhelmed (not only with the actual signings but some of the rumours too).

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

Good luck to my fellow sickos playing any version of CWC fantasy. May never touch grass at this rate

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

If there was ever a time for Blue Sky to launch group messsges…

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Logging back in just to say Leeds United are massive and free Largie Ramazani

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Been a while since I’ve posted for a variety of reasons but if anyone still cares (please touch grass and reassess your life) I’ve dropped to 50k and will be going into GW34 with the below. Now drop this here a like and seriously, go touch some grass

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Logging in after the longest GW ever. Enjoying the TC posvar and a green back into top 100k. Decisions for this week rest on Watkins’ fitness and chip strategy. Been an age since I whirred up the Dell Inspiron but could be time to dust it off once again for some heavy solves

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Reposted by Brun

Jonny Currie 🚀 @jonnyc.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks Viz dump + logic explained 🧵

Table showing PL fixtures and potential rearrangements for gameweeks 23 to 38

Table showing probability of fixture rearrangements

Table showing probability of blank and double gameweeks

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Real life getting in the way of an update for last 2 GWs.You’ve not missed much. Horror show in 21 has me almost tripling my rank in that time period. Solanke injury taken me off initial path and means a certain Swede has finally joined the lineup up front. No FH so navigating 29 will be interesting

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

GW20: Return of the posvar. 50% green. EV isn’t great next week but really hoping to roll for next couple going into a period of both high EV (doubles, AM chip?!) and low EV events (blanks and some low scoring GWs). With FH spent already will likely need more FTs than paths other people are on.

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 04/01/2025

GW20: Went early to bring Trent in for Gabriel. Price changes & it meaning less transfers down the line vs ~EV paths were main reasons. The way my recent transfers have gone this all but guarantees the Pool game will be off due to snow. EV of 45 in that case. Warra game we play

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Reposting as OR hadn’t updated for me. 65k red after a big captaincy swing. Posvar almost fully gone vs AE64. Injuries, bans and some poor moves have impacted predicted EV gains over last few too. Trent already in so no Isak for foreseeable. Hoping to pump these rookie numbers in next month or so

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

GW19: Flekken to Becker with 1FT. Team bad, EV bad. Captaincy not finalised but likely to go Palmer because why not. Time to throw up some serious prayers to the FPL Gods for a Raul start and a cheeky brace

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

Anyone else own Flekken, Fabianski, Raul, Bruno & Dibling and have only 1FT? Interested to see where others are going but appreciate I might be the only one suboptimal enough to be in this predicament

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

GW18: Bruno red, GKers injured & don’t own the only 2 forwards doing the points. Chunky red arrow & team is a mess with only 1 FT. Tis the season to fire up the Kermit gifs

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

New achievement unlocked: have both GKers get injured in the same GW

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

Should never check mid way through the GW but top line is currently hitting out Bruno who I brought in this week. Patreon now half price for the new year

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

GW18: Did Saka to Bruno earlier in the week now time to chill and drink some mulled wine ahead of Boxing Day eve and a full day of football. Merry Christmas to those with the exact same team as me. Bah Humbug to the rest of you. No EV for you sub optimal meeces

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Yeah, what the hell is this 🤮

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 22/12/2024

GW17: Bad week to be bad. 30k red arrow. Team bad but only 1FT so will be Saka out and reassess future paths now Jiminez’s mins look even shakier than before.

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

GW16: A jammy, tiny green thanks to Porro fluking the rare CS off bench & Gvard somehow scoring again. Team feels like it’s clinging on slightly, 2FTs & could do with Andersen being fit to open up option of rolling to 3. Porro out for cheaper def to enable upgrades elsewhere later also an option

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Porro Djed as an asset moving forward?

040

Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

GW16: Rolling, team bad

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Reposted by Brun

Simon @analyticf.pl · 11/12/2024

I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture. For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so: Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below From my team strength model

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager EV

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Considering downgrading Gab so I can afford Oliver Glasner in ten week’s time. Game’s truly gone

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Follow this criminally underrated Irish man who somehow not only has incredible rank history but can also get multiple price rises out of crap assets like RAN without the need for them doing the points

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

GW15: 58% green on FH but didn’t quite hit expectation vs prime and, thanks to a pretty big outlier GW from my regular team (78 points from 50ish EV), I actually would have been better off not playing the chip. Not sure where the assessment will land on decision to FH but OR is good so I’m happy atm

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

@bakerfpl343.bsky.social as the FPL guru on all things bps, do you know if bonus points have changed for any Mon night (or Sun if they’re last day of fixtures) games 24hrs later? Seems like it only happens to earlier fix but I don’t want to draft a strongly worded email until I know that’s the case

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

GW15: FH to gain +10EV on my regular team, hopefully gain a bit of EV over the engaged field and increase risk profile massively. Could easily backfire but Xfun/Xstress should be high and that’s why we play the game

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Ain’t no way FPL are giving that assist to Robinson?! @officialfpl.bsky.social

040

Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

GW14: Got 11 out,calling that a win. Big red arrow but rank wise in a good spot for this time of the season. Team is not in a good spot though. Ideally will try and roll next couple to save some FTs for some mini surgery in a few weeks time. Xmins concerns may make that less viable come deadline tho

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Sorry, apparently they prefer the 9 players on a team version more

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Rogers starts, illuminati just a fake conspiracy theory confirmed

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Anyone fancy a 10 a-side game after work cos my FPL team seem pretty keen on the idea 😡

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Me: I like a robust, 15 deep squad which allows EV to be brought in without wasting FTs. Also me, late at night in a state of delirium after too many solves: Saka do da points brrr let’s get him in for Bruno and pray on half my squad

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

More than happy with this, let’s pretend season 19/20 wasn’t a thing please

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Reposted by Brun

fplresearch @fplresearch.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

🏆 Manager Rankings, December 2024 🏆 🥇 @tomdollimorefpl.bsky.social 🥈 Fábio Borges 🥉 John Walsh Going forward rankings will be updated on fplresearch.com after every GW. Check your own rating here: fplresearch.com/tool

fplresearch.com

fplresearch.com - The home of FPL manager ratings

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Bar a brief update I’ve been away from this app for a bit. Hope the FPL world has been in fine form whilst I’ve been away

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Brun @brunfpl.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

GW13: Palmer saving me from a significantly worse red arrow. Dibling autosubbed in after Solanke and Gvardiol no shows. Defence and squad are stretched thin so not sure the initial plan (Bruno to Saka this GW) is where I’ll land. Fun Sunday night ahead of me…

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