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Brian Guay

@brianguay.bsky.social
3.2K followers 76 following 39 posts

Assistant Professor of Political Science @ UNC Chapel Hill | Public opinion, behavior, polarization, misinformation | Last name pronounced without the u | brianguay.com

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Surveys like this always alarm people Fortunately, recent research from cognitive psychology shows that the reason people are so wildly wrong when estimating the size of minority groups is largely NOT because of prejudice — but rather how humans think about unknown proportions of any kind
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Published a political psychology book this year? @erincassese.bsky.social, @lchristensen.bsky.social, and I are on the Robert E. Lane Award committee for the best book in political psych published in the past year Deadline for nominations: March 1, 2026. Details below apsanet.org/membership/o...
apsanet.org
Section28 - American Political Science Association (APSA)
Political Psychology (Section 28) The purpose of this section to facilitate communication across subfields and disciplinary boundaries among individuals
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
UNC Political Science is hiring in methods! UNC has an amazing department and the triangle is a great place to live. Tenure Track Assistant Professor in Methods (Deadline Oct 24) link to the posting👇 unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/307... #polisky #psjobs #poliscijobs
unc.peopleadmin.com
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 18/09/2025
Every time this worry comes up (www.ft.com/content/d419...) I post some Landy et al. (2018). People just answer questions about proportions (of anything) in a rather particular way. So I think it's unlikely that what they are being asked about is as important as you might expect it should be.
issues, and the results on immigration are
sobering. UK respondents dramatically overestimate how many immigrants there are and how many of them are Muslim. They overestimate what proportion of immigrants are from north Africa by a factor of 10, and from the Middle East by a factor of two, and underestimate how many are from North America. Respondents underestimate how many are Christian, and also underestimate the education levels and employment status of immigrants relative to the UK-born population. These misperceptions are not unique to the UK - they are common in rich countries.People seem to answer proportion questions in log odds space, not probabilities. And when you know that, there seems a lot less substantive interpretation worth doing.
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Reposted by Brian Guay
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Zaller remains undefeated
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
New paper on misperceptions out in PNAS @pnas.org www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Why do people overestimate the size of politically relevant groups (immigrant, LGBTQ, Jewish) and quantities (% of budget spent on foreign aid, % of refugees that are criminals)?🧵👇
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Mike Wagner @prowag.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
This is not a time for passive citizenship. Silence means approval. So what to do?
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
I'm very happy to share that I'll be joining the Department of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill as an Assistant Professor this fall. I'm excited for this next chapter and will always be incredibly grateful for my amazing experience at Stony Brook.
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
I haven't been on bsky for almost a year. It's nice over here!
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 29/03/2024
*Less than half* of misinformation studies expose people to both false and true info, and ONLY 7% measure discernment (the difference between believing/sharing true and false info)!! misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/what... Short 🧵 on why you should be measuring discernment👇
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 07/02/2024
Headed to SPSP2024 in San Diego to talk about how we should measure whether misinformation interventions work! Let me know if you're gonna be there (DM/email/text).
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Reposted by Brian Guay
Lisa Fazio @lkfazio.bsky.social · 02/02/2024
Less then a week until the 2nd Misinformation and Belief Science preconference at SPSP!! Really excited for the lineup Rakoen Maertens and I have put together. We've got ...
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APSA @apsa.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
Please share and apply to the APSA Ralph Bunche Summer Institute, an annual, intensive 5-wk program designed to introduce the world of doctoral study in political science to undergrad students from under-represented racial and ethnic groups. Deadline: Jan. 22 politicalsciencenow.com/call-for-app...
Apply to the APSA Ralph Bunche Summer Institute  (RBSI), an annual, intensive 5-wk program designed to introduce the world of doctoral study in political science to undergrad students from under-represented racial and ethnic groups.
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Reposted by Brian Guay
Rafael M Batista @rafmbatista.bsky.social · 31/10/2023
Apparently ~40% of crowdsource workers use LLMs when completing surveys Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below github.com/rafmbatista/...
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 03/10/2023
The last time there was a "presidental alert" Jesse Lopez & I wrote a POQ paper (doi.org/10.1093/poq/...) about it. Back then I thought it was crazy that this was being framed as such a polarizing issue. Enter 2023...
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Reposted by Brian Guay
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · 26/09/2023
Very happy to share a new working paper with some great coauthors! 97% of climate scientists agree that human-caused climate change is occurring. But how do people interpret this consensus? Is it a testament to expertise or a signal of bias? psyarxiv.com/ezua5/
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 25/09/2023
In addition to the junior line in American Politics, we have a senior line in political psychology at Stony Brook! apply.interfolio.com/131893 polisky psjminfo
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 25/09/2023
Job alert! We're hiring an assistant professor (American Politics) in the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook! Drew Englehardt and I started this semester and it's been great! apply.interfolio.com/130609 10/13 deadline polisky psjminfo poliSciJobs
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/09/2023
Kids: Study statistics
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Brian Guay @brianguay.bsky.social · 24/09/2023
Just joined! Seems nice over here!
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