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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

That’s a fair critique—we are talking about a war, after all. Agreed!

Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Iran, like you say, is imposing political costs to (in my view) attrit political will. The focus on the political costs is absolutely asymmetric, but the attrition is symmetrical.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Iranian officials think that they can withstand this attrition and view their ability to withstand that pressure as a strength.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Yes, I agree. The symmetry I refer to lies in the attrition-based approach. US admin is trying to attrit Iran militarily and economically (see degrading forces via strikes/blockade to damage economy), leaving aside the wisdom of that effort.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Recognizing that public support for the war is in the gutter, an asymmetrical strategy (again relative to Iran’s) would be wise to pursue. But we’re stuck in the mental concept of attrition, which won’t lend itself to creative ideas about what to do in any case…

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

And I would add that an attritional and punitive strategy is extremely symmetrical relative to Iran’s own attritional and punitive strategy. Iran is calculating that their attritional and punitive strategy will burn out the US first.

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Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Red Sea update: Bab el-Mandeb transits have halved rather than stopped, Yanbu crude is rerouting through Egypt to buyers from the Baltic to the US Gulf, and the empty tankers willing to sail back in will decide how long the reshuffle holds.-Kpler

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Brian Kerg @briankerg.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Today in @cimsec.bsky.social: "The Curious Rise of Military Bullshit,"by Colonel Benjamin Gray of the Australian Army. This is a phenomenal piece that lays bare the perverse trend within military culture to hide lazy thinking with complicated language. Read it here: cimsec.org/the-curious-...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

NEW | CTP’s @nicholasacarl.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social assess risks and opportunities for the US in Iran in their latest report, “The State of the Axis of Resistance.” Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the... Here are their key points: (1/3)

criticalthreats.org

The State of the Axis of Resistance: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for the United States

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

The worsening sectarian tension could very easily evolve into a large-scale conflict that would threaten to destabilize Syria and its political transition.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Alawites already feel disenfranchised and fear the future, as recent Economist polling and other reports indicate. The insurgents likely aim to take advantage of these dynamics.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

There is a concerted information operation by anti-government groups to spread sectarian narratives and some false reports of killings that support insurgent objectives. Both the insurgents and these accounts appear to be driving sectarian tension to delegitimize the interim government.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

There is a serious risk that Alawite insurgents take advantage of the violence to present themselves as defenders of the local community. Sectarian tensions will likely continue to mount since the government cannot adequately protect civilians, and disinformation is exacerbating the crisis.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...

criticalthreats.org

Alawite Insurgents Seek to Use Sectarian Violence to Destabilize the Interim Government in Syria

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

The US policy of "managing escalation"--a policy that only allowed the Houthis themselves to escalate--has failed, and a new approach is needed.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Shipping prices have fallen from a peak in Summer 2024, but the Houthis can resume attacks on maritime shipping for any reason they choose. Right now that reason is Israeli actions, but in the future the Houthis could attack maritime shipping for any other reason.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

The US could deter the Houthis if the US imposed real, long-lasting costs on the group for its actions.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

One disclaimer: Insurgent presence in an area does not imply that the insurgents “control” that area or that insurgents maintain a persistent presence there. You can read our definition of "presence" in full at the link above.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

The sectarian killing that occurred between March 5 and 7 will inflame the fighting and make it harder to defeat this insurgency.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Damascus likely faces a long, taxing counterinsurgency campaign that will constrain its bandwidth at a critical time. The insurgents are not defeated; they've merely gone back into hiding. They are still conducting hit-and-run attacks.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Assadist, Alawite insurgent leaders designed the March 5-7 offensive in the coastal region to trigger sectarian violence against Alawites, which could in turn buoy support for the insurgency. These leaders almost certainly did not intend to seize terrain or overthrow the government.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Assadists have already organized insurgents in the coastal areas, and they may be cooperating with groups like Hezbollah.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

This does not mean that these disparate cells and organizations will not coalesce over time. Assad loyalists (Assadists) are well-positioned to lead a broader insurgency across Syria because they are the best-organized and most-experienced anti-government fighters.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

The best organized insurgents are Alawites in coastal areas, but armed cells are also emerging in Damascus, Aleppo, and Deir ez Zor. The Alawite insurgent and other, smaller and less-organized armed cells elsewhere in the country have diff. motives and are not a monolith.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...

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Alexander McKeever @akmckeever.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The int'l cmty should not offer blanket or unconstrained assistance to the interim government, but instead offer substantial economic aid on conditions requiring transparent, accountable, international community-supported reconciliation that will fairly bring war criminals of all sects to justice.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The burgeoning insurgency highlights the need for an international community-backed reconciliation and political process that will assuage the concerns of Syrian minorities and transparently bring Assadists to justice for their crimes.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The insurgency gives openings for ISIS to resurge elsewhere in Syria and for Iran and its partners to re-entrench themselves in Syria. The Russians, too, could seek to re-enter the country.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The violence has already driven sectarian reprisals against the Alawites, which will likely empower Assadist elements, as they are the best organized and could rapidly strengthen the insurgency.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The insurgency is driven by Assadist regime remnants and a mounting sense among Syrian Alawites that the government is suppressing and marginalizing them.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The insurgency is still relatively small, but the interim government is continuing to contribute to the Alawite and minority grievances that are fueling the insurgency in various ways.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

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Devorah Margolin @devorahmargolin.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...

shafaq.com

Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation - Shafaq News

Shafaq News/ On Thursday, Iraq called on countries worldwide to repatriate their nationals from Syria’s Al-Hol camp. Speaking at a meeting at the United Nations headquarters in Iraq, National Securit

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3) www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Alex גדעון בן װעלװל @jewishwonk.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one. Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture. www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...

ynetnews.com

Israel fears sharing intelligence with U.S. due to Trump's rapprochement with Putin

NBC reports that Washington's allies are considering reducing the intelligence they share with the US as its relations with Moscow warm; The concern is that the identity of foreign assets could be acc...

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar022825

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains. ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

criticalthreats.org

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Maintaining the US presence could enable the United States—in combination with a new Syria policy—to defeat ISIS once and for all with its partners.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

ISIS could resurge in 12 to 24 months without a US presence in Syria. CENTCOM has already warned that the group is trying to reconstitute.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

The fall of the Bashar al #Assad regime has created new opportunities—but also created new risks—for US policy in Syria and the US mission against ISIS.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

The first #Trump Administration flirted with the idea of withdrawing US forces though he rescinded his decision.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

criticalthreats.org

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

A destabilized Syria is in no one's interest, especially because the interim government--for all its faults--appears to be attempting to chart a much more moderate path than either Assad or the more extreme Islamists that could come in the gov'ts place.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Finally, on the SDF. All parties seek to avoid a war in the northeast because a.) that war would destabilize Syria by distracting from the ISIS problem and plunging areas back into conflict, but b.) it would also risk Damascus's ability to get the West to relax sanctions.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Is the Damascus government perfect? No, but it would certainly seek to prevent attacks against Israel right now because threatening Israel risks destabilizing the country for minimal gains. Other actors--including former regime elements in the SW--will have no such aversion.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

On the Israel issue, "demilitarizing" southern Syria and blocking interim gov't forces from moving south prevents the interim government from ensuring that no one attacks the IDF or Israel itself. The protests across Syria and in the SW against Israel demonstrate the risks Israel's policies entail.

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