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Brian Carter

@briancarter.bsky.social
799 followers 229 following 65 posts

Research Manager and Fellow at AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Focused on military affairs. Opinions own.

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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
And I would add that an attritional and punitive strategy is extremely symmetrical relative to Iran’s own attritional and punitive strategy. Iran is calculating that their attritional and punitive strategy will burn out the US first.
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Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Red Sea update: Bab el-Mandeb transits have halved rather than stopped, Yanbu crude is rerouting through Egypt to buyers from the Baltic to the US Gulf, and the empty tankers willing to sail back in will decide how long the reshuffle holds.-Kpler
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Brian Kerg @briankerg.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Today in @cimsec.bsky.social: "The Curious Rise of Military Bullshit,"by Colonel Benjamin Gray of the Australian Army. This is a phenomenal piece that lays bare the perverse trend within military culture to hide lazy thinking with complicated language. Read it here: cimsec.org/the-curious-...
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
NEW | CTP’s @nicholasacarl.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social assess risks and opportunities for the US in Iran in their latest report, “The State of the Axis of Resistance.” Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the... Here are their key points: (1/3)
criticalthreats.org
The State of the Axis of Resistance: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for the United States
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...
criticalthreats.org
Alawite Insurgents Seek to Use Sectarian Violence to Destabilize the Interim Government in Syria
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
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Alexander McKeever @akmckeever.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
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Devorah Margolin @devorahmargolin.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...
shafaq.com
Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation - Shafaq News
Shafaq News/ On Thursday, Iraq called on countries worldwide to repatriate their nationals from Syria’s Al-Hol camp. Speaking at a meeting at the United Nations headquarters in Iraq, National Securit
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3) www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
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Alex גדעון בן װעלװל @jewishwonk.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one. Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture. www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...
ynetnews.com
Israel fears sharing intelligence with U.S. due to Trump's rapprochement with Putin
NBC reports that Washington's allies are considering reducing the intelligence they share with the US as its relations with Moscow warm; The concern is that the identity of foreign assets could be acc...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar022825
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains. ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
criticalthreats.org
A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
criticalthreats.org
A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
CTP-ISW’s Middle East Team is shifting to a 5-day coverage schedule with a focus on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen in response to the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally. @liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Israel has diminished the strategic threat of Hezbollah and secured a ceasefire that ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well. @briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US. The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
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Steve Herman @newsguy.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
UNIFIL says 122-mm rockets struck its Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers. unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-state...
unifil.unmissions.org
UNIFIL Statement: Rockets strike UNIFIL Sector West Headquarters, injuring 4 peacekeepers (22 November 2024)
Earlier today, two 122-mm rockets struck the Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers who are now receiving treatment at the base hospital. Fortunately, none of the injuri...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
My team @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social's latest on the Israeli op in Lebanon. The Israelis began by disrupting Hezbollah's ops and org before exploiting Hezbollah's disruption to destroy the group's capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. isw.pub/LebanonCampaign
isw.pub
Institute for the Study of War
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) campaign into Lebanon is degrading Hezbollah and destroying its military capabilities and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The IDF campaign is a response to Hezbolla...
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Nicholas Carl @nicholasacarl.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Beginning my Bluesky journey sharing my latest in the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in May upended the political status quo in Tehran and triggered an impromptu reshaping of the Iranian political landscape. www.hudson.org/politics-gov...
hudson.org
Political Transition in Post-Raisi Iran
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 upended the political status quo in Iran and created new uncertainty about where the country is headed. In many ways, Raisi was a...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Fantastic thread going over Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. claims targeting Merkavas since 10/7.
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Karolina Hird @karolinahird.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Seems like a good time to re-up my recent piece for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social, specifically forecasting the impacts of the Russia-North Korea relationship as they apply to the Korean Peninsula and wider Asia Pacific region ⬇️ www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
North Korea has deployed a contingent of troops to Russia in support of Russia's war in Ukraine —the latest development in intensified cooperation between the two countries since Russia's full-scale i...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.
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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons program but not yet decided to build a weapon. This assessment with @thestudyofwar.bsky.social is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian activity at the Parchin Military Complex, which Israel struck on October 25.
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Iran Update w @criticalthreats.bsky.social: isw.pub/IranUpdate11... More ⏬(1/5)
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
"Why Sinwar launched his attack before Hezbollah felt ready is unclear: He may simply have grown impatient." 10/7 was tragic--but it could have been much worse had Sinwar waited for Hezbollah. He was extremely overconfident in Hamas' abilities, but he did think that 10/7 would destroy Israel.
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
This is a fantastic piece on Trump II's options for Iran policy, and I agree that identifying goals will be key. I'd add only that Trump can't ignore Russia as it crafts Iran sanctions, because Iran will turn to Russia as it tries to circumvent sanctions. www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...
washingtoninstitute.org
Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy
The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.
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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
NEW I US and Israeli officials are in the "final stages” of drafting language for a ceasefire proposal to end the fighting in Lebanon, according to unspecified US and Israeli officials. Latest: isw.pub/IranUpdate11... Hezbollah could pursue several courses of action in response.🧵 1/6
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Read the @criticalthreats.bsky.social and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social latest on Israel’s October 25 Strike targeting Iran. The strike knocked out key Iranian SAMs and damaged production facilities, leaving Iran vulnerable going forward. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
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Brian Carter @briancarter.bsky.social · 10/11/2023
Great to talk to Times Radio about the fighting in the Gaza Strip with my Critical Threats Project colleague Nicholas Carl! You can see our appearance here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmJj... Menasky
youtube.com
Israel conflict will expand as Iran deploys secret weapon | Frontline
"Hamas is going to use all sorts of different traps and weapons at its disposal to impose a real casualty count on the Israelis."The war in Gaza is about to ...
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Ali Al-Sakani @alisakani.bsky.social · 06/11/2023
An Al-Masdar Online investigation unveils that the Houthis employed archived video footage of previous attacks, specifically targeting UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2022, in their recent announcement of an attack against Israel a few days ago. almasdaronline.com/articles/284194
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