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Bill Scher

@billscher.bsky.social
11K followers 1.3K following 2.2K posts

Politics Editor for @washingtonmonthly.com

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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 3h
Trump is doing a rally almost every day this month to salvage the midterms. But the history of midterm presidential campaigning is … not good My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/14/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
Trump’s Midterm Rally Blitz Probably Won’t Work
The track record of presidents who hit the campaign trail in midterms years is poor, especially when their job approval is underwater.
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
The polling industry has its challenges, and no single poll should ever be treated as gospel. But we have lots of other data that buttress the horse-race polling and point strongly toward a Blue Wave. (@billscher.bsky.social @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social) washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time
History tells us Trump’s abysmal job approval and economic record should lead to Democratic gains. Polls tell us we don’t know how big.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Presidents with job approval below 40% before a midterm election and presidential party seat losses Truman (1946) House: 58 Senate: 12 Truman (1950) House: 28 Senate: 6 Bush (2006) House: 30 Senate: 6 Trump (2026) House ? Senate ? More at washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time
History tells us Trump’s abysmal job approval and economic record should lead to Democratic gains. Polls tell us we don’t know how big.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Thank you!
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It’s not only horse race polling screaming Blue Wave * Trump job approval: just 3rd prez under 40 before midterm * Real disposable income: 5th midterm in 75 years with decline * Off-year state leg elections: 31 D flips, 0 R More from me: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time
History tells us Trump’s abysmal job approval and economic record should lead to Democratic gains. Polls tell us we don’t know how big.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
“Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look at all the reasons why a Blue Wave is coming … and why it still doesn’t guarantee a Democratic Senate washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time
History tells us Trump’s abysmal job approval and economic record should lead to Democratic gains. Polls tell us we don’t know how big.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
For LA-MAYOR, over the past month, save for one internal, neither Bass nor Raman can crack 40%. Undecideds range 17-33%. Highly unusual this late in the game.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“The Republican Plan to Buy the Election Got Too Expensive” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest on how Republican ad dollars aren’t going as far Democratic dollars because they’re too reliant on super PACs washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/06/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
The Republican Plan to Buy the Election Got Too Expensive
New data shows the GOP’s money advantage has narrowed because it relies too heavily on super PACs, which pay more for broadcast ads.
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Matt Lewis @mattklewis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Shmitt happens? On today's DMZ podcast, @billscher.bsky.social and I talk about the 'Gotcha' question that wasn't. ...Then, we dig into why Dems are still having trouble with Susan Collins in Maine. WATCH
youtu.be
That Wasn’t a Gotcha: Hawks, Hawkeyes, and The Schmittification of the GOP
YouTube video by Matt Lewis Can't Lose
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
You should always be at least a little worried so you don’t get complacent
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)” Spoiler: it’s his time serving in a state legislative majority My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/29/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)
Maine’s Democratic Senate nominee, Troy Jackson, has a weakness in today’s throw-the-bums-out environment: a long record in state government.
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Washington Monthly @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
What's the single biggest reason to expect a blue wave in November? Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down, @billscher.bsky.social writes.
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave Is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
If we take current polling avg as final, Dems net 6 to get to 53 (hold GA/MI/MN/NH, flip AK/IA/ME/NC/OH/TX) To get 55, probably need 2 out of KS/MS/MT/NE/SC (even more optimistically, ID/LA/SD) Not totally crazy! But data doesn’t support it yet.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The 2026 midterm is the 20th since 1950 It’ll be the 5th when real disposable income — money in your pocket after taxes/inflation — from 3Q->2Q, shrunk And when real disposable income goes down, odds of a wave go up My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/25/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
“This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming” washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/25/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is the shock poll of the season. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott down by SIX! scholars.unh.edu/survey_cente...
scholars.unh.edu
Partisan Headwinds Hamper Scott in Race With Janoo for Governor of Vermont 9/24/2026
Democratic nominee for governor Amanda Janoo has increased her support significantly since winning the Democratic Primary last month and is now in a statistical tie with Republican incumbent Phil Scot...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
You can figure that from El-Sayed’s 5 point lead!
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Huge gender gap in NYT polls of ME, MI, NH MEN Collins 54 Jackson 38 Rogers 52 El-Sayed 42 Sununu 51 Pappas 42 WOMEN Jackson 53 Collins 44 El-Sayed 55 Rogers 39 Pappas 57 Sununu 39 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Battleground Senate Races
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 1,837 voters from Sept. 15 to 22, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
NYT poll, Michigan “Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Hasan Piker Or have you not heard of him?” Very/somewhat fav 6% Very/somewhat unfav 34% Never heard of 54% www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Michigan
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 605 voters from Sept. 15 to 22, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look at the midterm money trail washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/22/i...
washingtonmonthly.com
If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money
Campaign spending data from party-affiliated committees show that Democrats are playing offense in some surprising places.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Uh www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The only part of this episode anybody remembers are Pete Hegseth’s text messages but it was just a year ago and seems important
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
No one would care if El Sayed hadn’t campaigned/w him. He was part of the credentialed influencers at the 2024 DNC & no one cared. And as I wrote in at least 49 states nobody cares now, maybe 50. Doesn’t mean Piker isn’t a narcissist who puts his ego ahead what’d maximize his pal’s odds of winning
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Try again washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/25/2...
washingtonmonthly.com
How 2026 Is Not Like 2006
Republicans made Nancy Pelosi their 2006 midterm villain. In 2026, Hakeem Jeffries is a tougher target, so the GOP is turning to Hasan Piker.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Assuming the numbers are accurate, one reason may be voter anger at the party controlling state government in each state.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It’s the fraud scandal that Trump/Fox have been hammering for months. Angie Craig tried to argue it would make her less electable to no avail.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Just based on this data I would have to put Flanagan and Jackson in that category, maybe Pappas
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Averages of Senate polls at least partially sampled in Sept. w/no internals NC: D+8.76 GA : D+5.5 NH: D+4 OH: D+4 TX: D+3.7 AK: D+2.5 ME: D+2.3 MI: D+1.8 MN: D+1.75 IA: D+0.5 NE: Tie KS: R+2 SC: R+2 FL: R+3.5 MT: R+13.5 No polls in SD/MS/ID (not counting that ATR poll)
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Yes
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Supreme Court’s refusal to let Trump meddle with mail ballot validates the Founders’ rationale for the lifetime appointment: my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/18/s...
washingtonmonthly.com
The Supreme Court Still Works as the Founders Intended
Many Democrats are hot to remake the Supreme Court. But it’s the lifetime appointment that just kept Trump from meddling with the midterms.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Democrats are now at 50.3% in the RCP generic congressional ballot average www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-... Democrats NEVER cracked 50% in the 2018 RCP generic congressional ballot average www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-...
realclearpolling.com
2018 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
2018 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
“Never Forgetting 9/11 Means Learning Lessons” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look back at the Bush administration’s fateful obsession with national missile defense at the expense of counterterrorism washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/16/n...
washingtonmonthly.com
Never Forgetting 9/11 Means Learning Lessons
In the 48 hours before 9/11, the Bush administration was insisting we spend enough on counterterrorism and not enough on missile defense.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
If you can get that on a bipartisan vote, could work. But w/nuke option, you risk major escalation. No system is completely foolproof. Nominate terrible people, get terrible results. But our structure means appointees aren’t beholden to appointer. So Trump’s judges are able to snub him on elections
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
If one party can ensure a SCOTUS majority with any trifecta (via abolishing the filibuster and passing a Judiciary Act on simple majority party line votes) then the judiciary will no longer be independent. Independence is sacrosanct if you don’t want to replicate Orban’s Hungary
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Any reform should not break what still works, or else you will lose the independent judiciary the next time a proto-authoritarian party wins a trifecta
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NYT/Siena poll, fav-unfav Mamdani 38-33 Ocasio-Cortez 30-41 Socialism 31-51 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 1,503 voters from Sept. 8 to 13, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Yes but if we lost the independent judiciary via simple majority court-packing, we’d be in full authoritarian mode right now
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We still have an independent judiciary that is a bulwark against authoritarianism That doesn’t mean the individual justices are heroes & we should forget all of their terrible decisions It means the Constitution’s lifetime judicial appointment continues to work as designed
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
There is no NYT generic congressional ballot average. This is just me calculating an average from what’s available. RCP is the only operation with extensive publicly available archives. And their GCB averages have been fine and not consistently off in any one direction.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Yes those averages are currently incorporating August data. The September data to date is stronger for Democrats
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The generic congressional ballot average of polls sampled in Sept (at least in part) is D+7.75. 2018 final RCP average was D+7.3 and actual popular vote margin was D+8.4
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Washington Monthly @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Democrats should at least take the House, but will it be a blue wave? @billscher.bsky.social crunches the data.
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
From my latest Median House district: PVI R+3 In ‘18 Ds flipped most seats R+3 & bluer (29 total) + 14 in redder districts (up to R+13) This year, 19 GOP seats in districts R+3 & bluer, and 21 from R+4->8 considered Tossup/Lean/Likely R washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Awww, thank you!
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
“Will It Be a Blue Wave?” — my House midterm election previews for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
“Amy Acton Won’t Debate. It’s Worked Before” My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/04/a...
washingtonmonthly.com
Amy Acton Won’t Debate. It’s Worked Before
Many pundits wrote off Katie Hobbs when she wouldn’t debate Kari Lake, but now she’s Arizona’s governor on the verge of winning reelection.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Certainly not helping GOP nationally. Michigan may be a different story but we’re not seeing it move the needle in polls yet (question remains whether polls are accurate )
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I joined the Politics Politics Politics podcast to discuss the midterms, check it out! www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/p/could-hasa...
politicspoliticspolitics.com
Could Hasan Piker Cost El-Sayed the Michigan Senate Race? (with Bill Scher)
And Hakeem Jeffries gets a taste of the speaker life...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
First MA-SEN Worcester drop (est. 44% of total vote) is Markey 70 Moulton 30 In 2020 Markey LOST Worcester 52-48. I’ve seen enough
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I don’t believe public option was one vote short
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