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Bill Scher

@billscher.bsky.social
11K followers 1.3K following 2.2K posts

Politics Editor for @washingtonmonthly.com

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Reposted by Bill Scher
Matt Lewis @mattklewis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Shmitt happens? On today's DMZ podcast, @billscher.bsky.social and I talk about the 'Gotcha' question that wasn't. ...Then, we dig into why Dems are still having trouble with Susan Collins in Maine. WATCH
youtu.be
That Wasn’t a Gotcha: Hawks, Hawkeyes, and The Schmittification of the GOP
YouTube video by Matt Lewis Can't Lose
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)” Spoiler: it’s his time serving in a state legislative majority My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/29/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)
Maine’s Democratic Senate nominee, Troy Jackson, has a weakness in today’s throw-the-bums-out environment: a long record in state government.
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Washington Monthly @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
What's the single biggest reason to expect a blue wave in November? Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down, @billscher.bsky.social writes.
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave Is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The 2026 midterm is the 20th since 1950 It’ll be the 5th when real disposable income — money in your pocket after taxes/inflation — from 3Q->2Q, shrunk And when real disposable income goes down, odds of a wave go up My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/25/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
“This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming” washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/25/t...
washingtonmonthly.com
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming
Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is the shock poll of the season. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott down by SIX! scholars.unh.edu/survey_cente...
scholars.unh.edu
Partisan Headwinds Hamper Scott in Race With Janoo for Governor of Vermont 9/24/2026
Democratic nominee for governor Amanda Janoo has increased her support significantly since winning the Democratic Primary last month and is now in a statistical tie with Republican incumbent Phil Scot...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Huge gender gap in NYT polls of ME, MI, NH MEN Collins 54 Jackson 38 Rogers 52 El-Sayed 42 Sununu 51 Pappas 42 WOMEN Jackson 53 Collins 44 El-Sayed 55 Rogers 39 Pappas 57 Sununu 39 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Battleground Senate Races
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 1,837 voters from Sept. 15 to 22, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
NYT poll, Michigan “Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Hasan Piker Or have you not heard of him?” Very/somewhat fav 6% Very/somewhat unfav 34% Never heard of 54% www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Michigan
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 605 voters from Sept. 15 to 22, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look at the midterm money trail washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/22/i...
washingtonmonthly.com
If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money
Campaign spending data from party-affiliated committees show that Democrats are playing offense in some surprising places.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Uh www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The only part of this episode anybody remembers are Pete Hegseth’s text messages but it was just a year ago and seems important
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Averages of Senate polls at least partially sampled in Sept. w/no internals NC: D+8.76 GA : D+5.5 NH: D+4 OH: D+4 TX: D+3.7 AK: D+2.5 ME: D+2.3 MI: D+1.8 MN: D+1.75 IA: D+0.5 NE: Tie KS: R+2 SC: R+2 FL: R+3.5 MT: R+13.5 No polls in SD/MS/ID (not counting that ATR poll)
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Supreme Court’s refusal to let Trump meddle with mail ballot validates the Founders’ rationale for the lifetime appointment: my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/18/s...
washingtonmonthly.com
The Supreme Court Still Works as the Founders Intended
Many Democrats are hot to remake the Supreme Court. But it’s the lifetime appointment that just kept Trump from meddling with the midterms.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Democrats are now at 50.3% in the RCP generic congressional ballot average www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-... Democrats NEVER cracked 50% in the 2018 RCP generic congressional ballot average www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-...
realclearpolling.com
2018 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
2018 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
“Never Forgetting 9/11 Means Learning Lessons” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look back at the Bush administration’s fateful obsession with national missile defense at the expense of counterterrorism washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/16/n...
washingtonmonthly.com
Never Forgetting 9/11 Means Learning Lessons
In the 48 hours before 9/11, the Bush administration was insisting we spend enough on counterterrorism and not enough on missile defense.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NYT/Siena poll, fav-unfav Mamdani 38-33 Ocasio-Cortez 30-41 Socialism 31-51 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate
Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 1,503 voters from Sept. 8 to 13, 2026.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We still have an independent judiciary that is a bulwark against authoritarianism That doesn’t mean the individual justices are heroes & we should forget all of their terrible decisions It means the Constitution’s lifetime judicial appointment continues to work as designed
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The generic congressional ballot average of polls sampled in Sept (at least in part) is D+7.75. 2018 final RCP average was D+7.3 and actual popular vote margin was D+8.4
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Washington Monthly @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Democrats should at least take the House, but will it be a blue wave? @billscher.bsky.social crunches the data.
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
From my latest Median House district: PVI R+3 In ‘18 Ds flipped most seats R+3 & bluer (29 total) + 14 in redder districts (up to R+13) This year, 19 GOP seats in districts R+3 & bluer, and 21 from R+4->8 considered Tossup/Lean/Likely R washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
“Will It Be a Blue Wave?” — my House midterm election previews for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/09/w...
washingtonmonthly.com
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
With limited data, exactly how many Republican incumbents are in trouble is hard to know. But Democrats have good reason to expect a blue wave
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
“Amy Acton Won’t Debate. It’s Worked Before” My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/04/a...
washingtonmonthly.com
Amy Acton Won’t Debate. It’s Worked Before
Many pundits wrote off Katie Hobbs when she wouldn’t debate Kari Lake, but now she’s Arizona’s governor on the verge of winning reelection.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I joined the Politics Politics Politics podcast to discuss the midterms, check it out! www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/p/could-hasa...
politicspoliticspolitics.com
Could Hasan Piker Cost El-Sayed the Michigan Senate Race? (with Bill Scher)
And Hakeem Jeffries gets a taste of the speaker life...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
First MA-SEN Worcester drop (est. 44% of total vote) is Markey 70 Moulton 30 In 2020 Markey LOST Worcester 52-48. I’ve seen enough
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
For quick & dirty MA primary benchmarking tonight, 2020 primary results by municipality for MA-SEN (Markey-Kennedy): www.nytimes.com/interactive/... MA-01 (Neal-Morse) www.nytimes.com/interactive/... MA-08 (Lynch-Goldstein) www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Massachusetts U.S. Senate Primary Election Results (Published 2020)
See full results and maps from the Massachusetts primaries.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
My latest for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social, in which I explore the difference between the Obama/Dean big tent strategy and the Platner/Piker big tent strategy washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/01/h...
washingtonmonthly.com
How to Build a Big Tent
Socialist and left populists have argued that a Democratic big tent should include figures like Hasan Piker. But the Democrats’ best coalition builder of the last 60 years, Barack Obama, had a differe...
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Dolly Parton deserved an Oscar for singing on screen with Sylvester Stallone with a straight face www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfTL...
youtube.com
Rhinestone Movie End Song Stay Out of My Bedroom
YouTube video by Hyrulecommander
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Anne S Kim @anne-s-kim.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social 2026 College Guide and Rankings are now live! See which schools are doing the best at what higher education is for: expanding knowledge and promoting opportunity. New this year: Best colleges for rural students. washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/30/a...
washingtonmonthly.com
A Different Kind of College Ranking
When you stop grading by snob appeal, the truly excellent ones shine. Plus, our new ranking of the best colleges for rural America.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
My unofficial Northampton MA-SEN primary lawn sign count: Markey: 2 Moulton: 1
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
If Richie Neal wins the MA-01 primary on Tuesday I’m going to credit his social media strategy which was to do absolutely nothing for the last two years
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Sunday banjo noodling
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Sunday banjo noodling
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
“America’s ballooning debt has…made us less attractive to creditors, who are now demanding higher returns …Higher Treasury rates in turn mean higher interest rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.” @anne-s-kim.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/30/l...
washingtonmonthly.com
Liberals Need to Care About the National Debt
The U.S. national debt recently surpassed $40 trillion. Reining it in is the only way to achieve progressive goals.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
It was brave of Abdul El-Sayed to defend gender-affirming care for minors on Fox News It was foolish bravado to compare circumcision to castration, neither of which are gender-affirming care My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/28/f...
washingtonmonthly.com
On Fox News, El-Sayed Bravely Defended Gender-Affirming Care, Then Took a Weird, Wrong Turn
The U.S. Senate candidate crossed over into bravado when he compared trans surgery to circumcision in an interview with Jesse Watters.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Full debate here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvkM...
youtube.com
Massachusetts 1st Congressional District Debate: Neal vs. Whalen
YouTube video by WWLP-22News
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The lone MA-01 debate is live now www.wwlp.com/watch-live/
wwlp.com
Watch 22News
The 22News newscasts are live in the player below. Where to watch 22News Channel numbers and access to specific streaming platforms will depend on your area ofresidence in Hampden, Hampshire, and F…
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Time to play some classics
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
20 years ago, Republicans tried to stave off a midterm defeat by vilifying House Dem leader Nancy Pelosi. Today, Hakeem Jeffries is a less inviting target. Enter Hasan Piker. How 2026 is not like 2006: my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/25/2...
washingtonmonthly.com
How 2026 Is Not Like 2006
Republicans made Nancy Pelosi their 2006 midterm villain. In 2026, Hakeem Jeffries is a tougher target, so the GOP is turning to Hasan Piker.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
NYT covers the crisis in the polling biz today www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/u... I had you six weeks ago washingtonmonthly.com/2026/07/10/p... (+ washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/11/i... & washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/14/p... )
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Matt Lewis @mattklewis.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
On today's pod, I talk w/ @billscher.bsky.social about El-Sayed's challenges in MI, Marco Rubio vs JD Vance, and Natalie Harp's "Love Letters" to Trump. Then, I talk w/ Jackie Gingrich Cushman about her work to get a John Adams memorial built in DC. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyx0...
youtube.com
Is El-Sayed Losing The Michigan Race?
YouTube video by Matt Lewis Can't Lose
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
At 10 AM ET TODAY: The DMZ with Matt Lewis and me on Substack: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
open.substack.com
LIVE SOON: Bill Scher on Michigan and the DSA Candidates
Starting Aug 21 at 10:00 AM EDT
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
An overlooked data point I flagged in today’s column. Two weeks ago I wrote “To Mend Fences in Michigan, El-Sayed Should Stop Talking About Israel” washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/06/e... Since then, he has stopped talking about Israel. More below
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
“El-Sayed May Be Winning. But He Should Run Like He’s Losing” My latest for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/21/e...
washingtonmonthly.com
El-Sayed May Be Winning. But He Should Run Like He’s Losing
If El-Sayed believes only the good polls and not the bad, he may wrongly conclude he need not adjust to woo swing voters.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I shared my thoughts with @azipaybarah.bsky.social on the sorry state of the polling industry san.com/cc/pollsters...
san.com
Pollsters weather storm of fake data, secret sponsorships, with some afraid to give names
Shortly after a new firm, Median Strategies, published a poll about the LA mayor’s race, a small account on X claimed the firm and poll were a "hoax."
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James Downie @jamescdownie.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
A fun fact for approximately three people on this site: The single worst approval rating ever – 19% for George W. Bush in Feb. '08 – was also an ARG poll.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
“…polling shows that people want fact-based problem-solvers who are honest with them, even if they don’t support the same policies”
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The Editorial Board @editorialboard.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
@billscher.bsky.social: "When it comes to broader concepts of socialism & capitalism, Dems & liberals sharply diverge from the rest of the electorate, including the crucial middle. In turn, there’s little reason for the Dems to embrace the socialist label." washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/18/j...
washingtonmonthly.com
Americans Like Moderate Politicians and Progressive Policies, But Not Socialism
Hakeem Jeffries is betting that moderates can unite the party around progressive policies while keeping their distance from socialism.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
New TIPP MI-SEN poll commissioned by League of American Workers (a one-man conservative org) has El-Sayed up 3 We now have three post-primary polls telling different stories Average them? Leave out the D internal? Choose your own adventure!
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Reposted by Bill Scher
Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
FLIP IN FLORIDA: The Democratic-backed slate has flipped the school board of Sarasota County. This is a county of 400K that went for Trump by 18%. It's also where Bridget Ziegler has been on the school board. Dem-backed candidates just flipped 2 seats, adding to the 2 they already had (out of 5).
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
“Americans Like Moderate Politicians and Progressive Policies, But Not Socialism” My look the latest poll data for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/18/j...
washingtonmonthly.com
Americans Like Moderate Politicians and Progressive Policies, But Not Socialism
Hakeem Jeffries is betting that moderates can unite the party around progressive policies while keeping their distance from socialism.
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