Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026ANOTHER ADD (for completeness) There were 3 years in the last 15 where inflation and earnings growth were below 2.5% so the triple lock kicked in, meaning the state pension grew by 2.5% when otherwise it would have increased by less 182
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026ADD @theifs.bsky.social have actually modelled what would have happened since 2010 if the new proposed system had been in place - as you can see, growth in the state pension would have been closer to growth in earnings over that time ifs.org.uk/articles/how... 2154
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026...How would the Andy Burham proposal change this? It's complicated because the annual uprating formula would keep an arbitrary 2.5% floor. But probably the simplest way to think about it is that - over the longer term - growth in the state pension would be closer to growth in average earnings 5/5 2154
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026...Put those together and the result is that over 15 years the triple lock has pushed up the state pension in cash terms by more than growth in average earnings and more than the increase in prices...4/5 1147
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026...Second, think about how the state pension has grown relative to inflation. In 10 of the past 15 years it's gone up by more than inflation because of the triple lock...3/5 1113
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026...First think about how the state pension has grown relative to earnings. In 7 of the past 15 years it's gone up by more than earnings because of the triple lock...2/5 1113
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Thinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5 44029
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Worth stressing that these are only *estimates* of oil flow - these ones come from Kpler. Lots of uncertainty. www.kpler.com?r=0 ENDSkpler.comKpler | Real-Time Trade Intelligence Tools for Global MarketsUnlock global trade intelligence with Kpler’s real-time data on 40+ commodities, power markets, and maritime logistics, trusted by 10,000+ organisations. 090
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026So why is the global oil price high and still rising? Not a consensus view from oil analysts, but likely related to fears about the sustainability of oil flow via the Saudi East-West pipeline after an attack this month & Houthi threats to Saudi tankers in the Red Sea...7/8 182
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Which - all together - suggests that in September the oil coming out of the region was around 85% of pre-war flows, up from less than 50% in March...6/8 1131
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026And Saudi Arabia has been pumping a lot more through its East West pipeline since the war began, which takes oil to the Red Sea rather than Hormuz/Gulf of Oman, reaching 2m barrels a day in September...5/8 180
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026And the flow of oil through pipelines that go *around* the Strait of Hormuz with terminals in the Gulf of Oman has increased, reaching 3.5m barrels a day in September...4/8 170
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026But ship trackers reckon a growing amount of crude is getting out through the Strait on secretive passages and via ship to ship transfers of oil in the Gulf of Oman - around an extra 2m barrels a day in September...3/8 261
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from around 16m barrels a day in February to less than 2m in March. They've since risen to around 7m according to conventional ship tracking techniques...2/8 181
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026What's happened to crude oil flows from the Middle East since the US war on Iran began? 🛢️ Has Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz? Or is the Strait now basically open as the US claims? & what's happened to other exit routes? Here's a helpful way of visualising it...📊 👇1/8 22815
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026So: here's the context for what we've now been told is the Government's council housebuilding target i.e "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war boom ended in the early 1980s" 012
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026And data for local authority affordable home/social rent delivery is from "Table 1013: additional affordable homes by provider, England": www.gov.uk/government/s...gov.ukLive tables on affordable housing supplyThe latest data tables on affordable housing supply. 121
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Data for local authority completions is from "Table 244: permanent dwellings started and completed, by tenure, England, historical calendar year series": www.gov.uk/government/s... ...gov.ukLive tables on housing supply: indicators of new supplyThe latest data tables on housing supply: indicators of new supply. 110
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026And put it together with the actual housing construction figures for councils & this is the picture: 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026...It also includes the delivery of homes by local authorities at "affordable rent", which is more expensive than the social rents available in traditional council housing. If you use only the new social rent delivery figures (the gold line) the picture looks like this... 110
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026...it includes the construction of new homes by *private* developers under Section 106 agreements with councils, but where the local authority can be recorded as the provider... 110
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Ministers have also recently been referencing this different data set to argue the delivery of homes by local authorities in England in 2025 was already the highest since the early 1990s - but this, strictly speaking, is not a measure of house *building* by councils... www.gov.uk/government/s... 110
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Bringing annual council house building up to the 20k/year of the mid 1980s will, of course, be much more realistic than the 200k a year of the 1950s... www.gov.uk/government/s... 3124
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Burnham's original pledge on 29th June..."the biggest council house building programme since the post-war period"...with "post-war period" left undefined... andyburnham.org.uk/2026/07/20/a... 241
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Similar language used by housing minister Matthew Pennycook on Radio 4 Today… 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Seems Andy Burnham’s original pledge to deliver the biggest council house building programme “since the post war period” actually means since the early 1980s…. www.gov.uk/government/p... 3176
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up? My analysis from the BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukDoes Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up?BBC Verify breaks down what the party says it wants to do to cut the benefits bill - and how realistic it is. 392
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Why are successive governments having to release some prisoners early? My analysis for the BBC website, done with Lucy Gilder ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukEarly prison releases: Why some prisoners are being freed after a third of their sentenceMore people going to prison, and for longer, is why governments including the current one have had to release prisoners early. 764
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Was on Newscast this afternoon - along with Alison Holt and Jim Reed - talking about the benefits and costs of social care reform 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...bbc.co.ukNewscast - What is Andy Burnham's Plan to 'Fix' Social Care? - BBC SoundsAnd how will the Prime Minister fund social care reform? 051
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I analyse the Government's main social care reform options (and their troubled political history) for the BBC website ✍️👇 - Cap on lifetime costs - More generous means test - Free personal care - National care service www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukSocial care: Four ways to reform the systemWith Andy Burnham saying he wants to bring "substantial change" to social care in England, BBC Verify looks at what could be done. 1101
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Talking about Burnham’s economic policies on Newsnight 1030pm on BBC2 & iplayer 2181
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis? My analysis for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukCan Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis?BBC Verify has looked at the scale of the housing challenge facing Burnham when he becomes PM. 021
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 09/07/2026The welfare reform challenge facing Andy Burnham. Rising Personal Independence Payment numbers and rising working-age health and sickness spending - though a flat outlook for non-pensioner welfare as % GDP. My online analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukHow rise in ADHD benefits claims is adding to Andy Burnham's welfare challengeMore than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition receive Pip, latest figures show, an increase of 40% since Labour came to power. 290
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/07/2026Has Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Burnham? My Verify explainer for BBC online ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukHas Keir Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Andy Burnham?BBC Verify investigates whether it's right to talk of a "black hole" in the government defence investment plan. 031
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/06/2026As the Defence Investment Plan finally sees the light of day, are you confused by all the UK defence spending figures being thrown around by politicians? If so, read our Verify explainer on the BBC website here ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 174
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026I'll also be discussing this on @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social Tune at 1030pm on BBC! 252
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Should we expect Andy Burnham's devolution plan to actually raise UK economic growth? I examine the evidence in an piece for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukWill Andy Burnham's devolution plan raise economic growth?BBC Verify has looked at what impact further devolution could be expected to have on the UK. 151
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/06/2026Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? Watch @rosatkins.bsky.social's deep Verify dive for the BBC's YouTube channel (in which I pop up a few times!) Produced by Katerina Karelli 📺👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9e...youtube.comIs the UK worse off because of Brexit? | BBC NewsYouTube video by BBC News 2137
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others? My analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukWeapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others?BBC Verify examines how the new deal between the US and Iran affects three key areas. 021
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Also bear in mind that last year the UK agreed to spend 3.5% of GDP on "core defence requirements" by 2035. Which in today's money implies an extra £27bn relative to the currently planned spending in 2027. ENDS 220
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Healey's figures suggest a planned increase between 2027 and 2030 of £2.4bn/year in today's money on defence spending (2.6% to 2.68%) To get it to 3% from 2027 would require an extra £12bn/year...6/7 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026But in his resignation letter Healey said the Defence Investment Plan only outlined funding to take military spending to 2.68% by 2030. So short of the 3% he thought necessary...5/7 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026The Government also has an "ambition" to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP "in the next Parliament", so by 2034/35 John Healey in his resignation letter as defence secretary said this target should be hit earlier - by 2030...4/7 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026The Government has committed to increase this to 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28 - or 2.6% of GDP when including spending on the intelligence services...3/7 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Nato-qualifying defence spending as a share of GDP in 2025-26 was 2.4% of GDP...2/7 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026What is the government planning to spend on defence? And what do critics think it *should* be spending? Here's some context for all the somewhat confusing numbers flying around Thread...1/7 3115
Reposted by Ben ChuBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 07/06/2026You’ve probably heard of Henry – the High Earner, Not Rich Yet. But what about his nemesis, Richard – who Retired In a Comfortable House And Refuses to Downsize? There are quite a lot of Richards out there. They’re the subject of my column for today’s Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines... 13166
Reposted by Ben ChuVictoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire.bsky.social · 05/06/2026EXCL: Andy Burnham’s first broadcast interview since confirming he’d join any potential Labour leadership contest • is ‘sympathetic’ to reversing the gov’s NI rise for employers • asked why he believes he’d be a better PM than Keir Starmer says ‘I’m not getting into that’ 1/2 👇 18608