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Ben Chu

@benchu.bsky.social
14K followers 470 following 1K posts

Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify. www.benchu.co.uk Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025 linktr.ee/exileeconomics

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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
ANOTHER ADD (for completeness) There were 3 years in the last 15 where inflation and earnings growth were below 2.5% so the triple lock kicked in, meaning the state pension grew by 2.5% when otherwise it would have increased by less
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thanks - glad it was helpful
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
ADD @theifs.bsky.social have actually modelled what would have happened since 2010 if the new proposed system had been in place - as you can see, growth in the state pension would have been closer to growth in earnings over that time ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
...How would the Andy Burham proposal change this? It's complicated because the annual uprating formula would keep an arbitrary 2.5% floor. But probably the simplest way to think about it is that - over the longer term - growth in the state pension would be closer to growth in average earnings 5/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
...Put those together and the result is that over 15 years the triple lock has pushed up the state pension in cash terms by more than growth in average earnings and more than the increase in prices...4/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
...Second, think about how the state pension has grown relative to inflation. In 10 of the past 15 years it's gone up by more than inflation because of the triple lock...3/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
...First think about how the state pension has grown relative to earnings. In 7 of the past 15 years it's gone up by more than earnings because of the triple lock...2/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷‍♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Worth stressing that these are only *estimates* of oil flow - these ones come from Kpler. Lots of uncertainty. www.kpler.com?r=0 ENDS
kpler.com
Kpler | Real-Time Trade Intelligence Tools for Global Markets
Unlock global trade intelligence with Kpler’s real-time data on 40+ commodities, power markets, and maritime logistics, trusted by 10,000+ organisations.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So why is the global oil price high and still rising? Not a consensus view from oil analysts, but likely related to fears about the sustainability of oil flow via the Saudi East-West pipeline after an attack this month & Houthi threats to Saudi tankers in the Red Sea...7/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Which - all together - suggests that in September the oil coming out of the region was around 85% of pre-war flows, up from less than 50% in March...6/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And Saudi Arabia has been pumping a lot more through its East West pipeline since the war began, which takes oil to the Red Sea rather than Hormuz/Gulf of Oman, reaching 2m barrels a day in September...5/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And the flow of oil through pipelines that go *around* the Strait of Hormuz with terminals in the Gulf of Oman has increased, reaching 3.5m barrels a day in September...4/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
But ship trackers reckon a growing amount of crude is getting out through the Strait on secretive passages and via ship to ship transfers of oil in the Gulf of Oman - around an extra 2m barrels a day in September...3/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from around 16m barrels a day in February to less than 2m in March. They've since risen to around 7m according to conventional ship tracking techniques...2/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What's happened to crude oil flows from the Middle East since the US war on Iran began? 🛢️ Has Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz? Or is the Strait now basically open as the US claims? & what's happened to other exit routes? Here's a helpful way of visualising it...📊 👇1/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
So: here's the context for what we've now been told is the Government's council housebuilding target i.e "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war boom ended in the early 1980s"
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
And data for local authority affordable home/social rent delivery is from "Table 1013: additional affordable homes by provider, England": www.gov.uk/government/s...
gov.uk
Live tables on affordable housing supply
The latest data tables on affordable housing supply.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Data for local authority completions is from "Table 244: permanent dwellings started and completed, by tenure, England, historical calendar year series": www.gov.uk/government/s... ...
gov.uk
Live tables on housing supply: indicators of new supply
The latest data tables on housing supply: indicators of new supply.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
And put it together with the actual housing construction figures for councils & this is the picture:
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
...It also includes the delivery of homes by local authorities at "affordable rent", which is more expensive than the social rents available in traditional council housing. If you use only the new social rent delivery figures (the gold line) the picture looks like this...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
...it includes the construction of new homes by *private* developers under Section 106 agreements with councils, but where the local authority can be recorded as the provider...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Ministers have also recently been referencing this different data set to argue the delivery of homes by local authorities in England in 2025 was already the highest since the early 1990s - but this, strictly speaking, is not a measure of house *building* by councils... www.gov.uk/government/s...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bringing annual council house building up to the 20k/year of the mid 1980s will, of course, be much more realistic than the 200k a year of the 1950s... www.gov.uk/government/s...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Burnham's original pledge on 29th June..."the biggest council house building programme since the post-war period"...with "post-war period" left undefined... andyburnham.org.uk/2026/07/20/a...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Similar language used by housing minister Matthew Pennycook on Radio 4 Today…
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Seems Andy Burnham’s original pledge to deliver the biggest council house building programme “since the post war period” actually means since the early 1980s…. www.gov.uk/government/p...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up? My analysis from the BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up?
BBC Verify breaks down what the party says it wants to do to cut the benefits bill - and how realistic it is.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Why are successive governments having to release some prisoners early? My analysis for the BBC website, done with Lucy Gilder ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Early prison releases: Why some prisoners are being freed after a third of their sentence
More people going to prison, and for longer, is why governments including the current one have had to release prisoners early.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Was on Newscast this afternoon - along with Alison Holt and Jim Reed - talking about the benefits and costs of social care reform 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Newscast - What is Andy Burnham's Plan to 'Fix' Social Care? - BBC Sounds
And how will the Prime Minister fund social care reform?
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I analyse the Government's main social care reform options (and their troubled political history) for the BBC website ✍️👇 - Cap on lifetime costs - More generous means test - Free personal care - National care service www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Social care: Four ways to reform the system
With Andy Burnham saying he wants to bring "substantial change" to social care in England, BBC Verify looks at what could be done.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Talking about Burnham’s economic policies on Newsnight 1030pm on BBC2 & iplayer
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis? My analysis for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis?
BBC Verify has looked at the scale of the housing challenge facing Burnham when he becomes PM.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The welfare reform challenge facing Andy Burnham. Rising Personal Independence Payment numbers and rising working-age health and sickness spending - though a flat outlook for non-pensioner welfare as % GDP. My online analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
How rise in ADHD benefits claims is adding to Andy Burnham's welfare challenge
More than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition receive Pip, latest figures show, an increase of 40% since Labour came to power.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Has Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Burnham? My Verify explainer for BBC online ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Has Keir Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Andy Burnham?
BBC Verify investigates whether it's right to talk of a "black hole" in the government defence investment plan.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
As the Defence Investment Plan finally sees the light of day, are you confused by all the UK defence spending figures being thrown around by politicians? If so, read our Verify explainer on the BBC website here ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I'll also be discussing this on @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social Tune at 1030pm on BBC!
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Should we expect Andy Burnham's devolution plan to actually raise UK economic growth? I examine the evidence in an piece for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Will Andy Burnham's devolution plan raise economic growth?
BBC Verify has looked at what impact further devolution could be expected to have on the UK.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? Watch @rosatkins.bsky.social's deep Verify dive for the BBC's YouTube channel (in which I pop up a few times!) Produced by Katerina Karelli 📺👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9e...
youtube.com
Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? | BBC News
YouTube video by BBC News
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others? My analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others?
BBC Verify examines how the new deal between the US and Iran affects three key areas.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
ADD Here's those £ increase figures in a chart
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Also bear in mind that last year the UK agreed to spend 3.5% of GDP on "core defence requirements" by 2035. Which in today's money implies an extra £27bn relative to the currently planned spending in 2027. ENDS
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Healey's figures suggest a planned increase between 2027 and 2030 of £2.4bn/year in today's money on defence spending (2.6% to 2.68%) To get it to 3% from 2027 would require an extra £12bn/year...6/7
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
But in his resignation letter Healey said the Defence Investment Plan only outlined funding to take military spending to 2.68% by 2030. So short of the 3% he thought necessary...5/7
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
The Government also has an "ambition" to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP "in the next Parliament", so by 2034/35 John Healey in his resignation letter as defence secretary said this target should be hit earlier - by 2030...4/7
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
The Government has committed to increase this to 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28 - or 2.6% of GDP when including spending on the intelligence services...3/7
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Nato-qualifying defence spending as a share of GDP in 2025-26 was 2.4% of GDP...2/7
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
What is the government planning to spend on defence? And what do critics think it *should* be spending? Here's some context for all the somewhat confusing numbers flying around Thread...1/7
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Reposted by Ben Chu
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
You’ve probably heard of Henry – the High Earner, Not Rich Yet. But what about his nemesis, Richard – who Retired In a Comfortable House And Refuses to Downsize? There are quite a lot of Richards out there. They’re the subject of my column for today’s Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Reposted by Ben Chu
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
EXCL: Andy Burnham’s first broadcast interview since confirming he’d join any potential Labour leadership contest • is ‘sympathetic’ to reversing the gov’s NI rise for employers • asked why he believes he’d be a better PM than Keir Starmer says ‘I’m not getting into that’ 1/2 👇
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