Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I mean that is pretty typical for a new technology. Computers didn’t raise productivity at first either, until companies and workers figured out how to use them effectively. I think how much AI lifts productivity is a very open question, but I’d be surprised if the answer was “zero.” 130
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I certainly don’t think there’s anything approaching true “consensus” on what AI will mean for the economy. But I would guess the modal forecast is something like “AI valuations are looking bubble-like, but the technology will lead to productivity gains in the long run.” 130
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026“Geography is back with a vengeance.” Smart story from @patcohen.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/10/05/b...nytimes.comGeography Is Back With a VengeanceTrade blockages in the Persian Gulf have reminded the world that there are forces as great as or greater than technology and globalization. 052
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The A.I. investment boom is contributing to inflation. It also appears nearly immune to high interest rates. That’s a challenging combination for the Fed — with potentially serious implications for the rest of the economy. With @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/05/b... #EconSkynytimes.comHigh Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed. (Gift Article)Rising borrowing costs are taking a toll on households and businesses. But they are doing little to dampen enthusiasm for investments in A.I. infrastructure, which are contributing to inflation. 912152
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Nationally, yes, at least as of August. Of course doesn’t mean there aren’t layoffs happening in certain industries and certain places. And, as discussed, the low hiring rate means that people who do lose jobs are having a hard time finding new ones. 100
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The process has not changed. Trump fired the head of the BLS last year, but most of the rest of the staff has not changed, and the new commissioner is a longtime BLS employee. People inside the agency say the numbers are still reliable. But I'm watching closely for any signs that is changing. 1121
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026(Note: This thread partly inspired by/adapted from a talk I gave at the Drexel Economic Forum yesterday. Thanks to Andre Kurmann for the invitation.) 0432
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Last point: The biggest losers in a low-turnover job market are younger workers. They're the most likely to be looking for jobs and the ones who benefit most from switching. Right now, it's taking longer for them to find jobs AND their switching rates are especially depressed. 37817
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026These things are connected. Changing jobs (or credibly threatening to do so) is one of the best ways to secure a wage increase. A low-turnover job market isn't just bad for people looking to get jobs; it's bad for existing workers too. 17720
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026But it isn't just wages. People aren't quitting their jobs. Gross hires (a proxy for job turnover) are low. Workers aren't acting like they see a lot of opportunities to go out and find better jobs. 26512
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Low layoffs are, obviously, good news for workers. But this doesn't look like a labor market where workers have a ton of leverage. Start with the obvious one: Nominal wage growth has been steadily softening. 1599
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026And if you have a job, you aren't at high risk of losing it. Layoffs are low. Even in A.I.-exposed white-collar sectors, there's been no obvious, sustained spike in job losses. 2403
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026By the way, this is true even if we do a more sophisticated demographic adjustment, or if we look only at full-time workers. 1413
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026OK, but what about the other part? Is it a good time to have a job? Well, it's true that most people who want one *do* have a job. The employment rate among prime-age (25-54) workers rebounded in September and has been holding at more or less its post-2000 high. 2444
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The job-finding rate (flows from unemployment to employment) ticked up in September but has generally been trending down. 1445
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026First, the part that is true: It's a bad time to be looking for a job. Durations of unemployment and long-term are rising, which is uncommon outside of a recession. 16916
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026One of the dominant narratives about the labor market over the past couple years has been that it's a "good time to have a job but a bad time to be looking for one." I think that's only half true. A quick 📈🧵: #EconSky #NumbersDay 310828
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Bottom line: +29k jobs (+50k 3mma) and 4.2% unemployment are hardly catastrophic. Rebound in prime-age e-pop is encouraging. Fundamental issue in this labor market isn't that there aren't enough jobs. It's what they pay: Wage growth is continuing to slow. #NumbersDay 23015
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Gains for July and August were both revised down, by a combined 60,000 jobs. 2164
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10... #EconSky #NumbersDaybls.gov Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M09 Results 78424
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 21/09/2026“I don’t sweep the floor with my uterus.” Absolutely love this conversation between @corinnelow.com and @soumayakeynes.ft.com about gender and time use in parenting. (Yes, they have spreadsheets!) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...podcasts.apple.comCan you spreadsheet your way to equal parenting? With Corinne LowPodcast Episode · The Economics Show · September 18 · 27m 2297
Reposted by Ben CasselmanJed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2026The 2025 American Community Survey should have come out today. But it has been delayed because of unusual political encroachment at Census. ACS drives business and policy decisions, especially in local communities, and is the primary input to Census’s immigration estimates. 118381
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Decision was unanimous. Most officials see at least one more rate increase by the end of the year. 0286
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026The Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates by a quarter point as policymakers try to tamp down inflation after more than five years of above-target price increases. Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09... #EconSkynytimes.comLive Updates: Fed Faces a Credibility Test on Interest Rates 44214
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Thanks, Sam! Appreciate that from someone who’s so good at explaining this stuff in plain English (albeit for a slightly more sophisticated audience 😂) 131
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Interestingly, earnings among women who were employed full-time, year-round rose at a decent pace (+3.2%, adjusted for inflation), while earnings fell slightly for men (-0.9%, not statistically significant). 0161
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026The top 20% of households got more than half (52.4%) of all income in 2025. That share has been rising gradually over time. 33010
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026New Census data: Median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose 2.6 percent in 2025, to $87,460. The poverty rate (as measured by the supplemental poverty measure) held steady at 13.1 percent. #EconSky 1243
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit 5 percent for the first time since 2023. Today, I'm on The Daily explaining why yields are rising, and why you should care. Give it a listen! www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/p... #EconSkynytimes.comThe Bond Market Is Flipping Out. Here’s Why You Should Care. (Gift Article)Just about everybody is affected by the rising interest rates caused by the turmoil. Our economics correspondent explains what’s happening. 98325
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Ooh, I love this idea. What are some other examples you’ve featured? 120
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings fell on a year-over-year basis for the fifth straight month in August, as higher gas prices wiped away workers' pay increases. #NumbersDay 25319
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026"Supercore" prices (services excluding energy and housing) were up 0.5 percent month over month, 3 percent year-over-year. That's a number Fed policymakers have been watching, and they won't be happy with that reading. 0277
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026That 0.3 percent on core is above expectations. Unless there are other quirks hiding in these numbers, that makes a Fed hike next week more likely. 2315
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and were up 3.4% from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, were up 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09... #NumbersDaybls.gov Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M08 Results 46625
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Seeing some posts about the divergence between BLS and ADP. But on a one-month basis, such gaps aren't at all unusual. And on a 12-month basis, the two sources are closely aligned. #NumbersDay 2313
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026ADP is big, but it isn't fully representative of the U.S. economy -- its clients are mostly larger, more established companies. So we wouldn't expect its numbers to track the BLS numbers exactly. This kind of gap in any given month isn't that surprising. 030
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Despite today's upward revisions to June/July, monthly revisions have continued to be negative on average, though not as sharply so as early last year. 0164
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026A hint of good news on the data-collection front: Collection rates for the preliminary payrolls estimate has been edging up. Hints of stabilization but no real improvement in household survey response rates. 1294
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Job losses in Information and Financial Services continued in August. But professional services have continued to grow. There's no consistent pattern in white-collar industries. 191
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026The big drop in public school employment in July looked like a seasonal quirk, and it was -- it rebounded sharply in August. But the larger downtrend is real -- local public education employment leveled off last fall and has been falling this year. 1105
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026The participation rate ticked up in August, but held steady for prime-age (25-54) workers. The sharp drop in prime-age participation in June looked like a fluke at the time, but it hasn't bounced back. Starting to look like the fluke was the jump up last year. 2174
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, and has now been at or under 4.5 percent for a record 59 consecutive months. 2143
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Job growth accelerated in August, and June/July were revised up (in July's case, from a small decline to a small gain). Three-month average is at about +70k/month, up from about +10k/month last year (but down from +122k in 2024). #NumbersDay 3257
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026June and July were both revised up modestly, by a combined 55,000. July was revised from -23k to +21k. 1100
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026U.S. employers added an unexpectedly strong 162,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09... #NumbersDaybls.gov Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M08 Results 4182
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 01/09/2026It’s not that it’s immune in the sense that it couldn’t happen. It’s that, as far as I can tell from my reporting, it hasn’t happened. Note that people at Census raised the alarm on this. I’ve been talking to folks at BLS and there’s no sign of anything similar there. 020
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Maria Edgeworth was a pioneer of the idea that economics should be accessible to all, not locked away behind jargon. What, you haven't heard of her? That's no accident, as @jeannasmialek.bsky.social explains in a new book that I am *so excited* to read. Excerpt: www.nytimes.com/2026/08/29/b...nytimes.comShe Popularized Economics. Then She Was Erased From History. Why? (Gift Article)Maria Edgeworth sneaked economic theory into her best-selling novels. Two centuries later, a new book finally gives her the credit she deserves. 15824
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Arguably, it would be more politically advantageous to show good monthly numbers (the ones everyone pays attention to) and then quietly revise them down later. This is the opposite of that pattern. 100
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Yes, I have asked them directly. And I'm not sure it's true the numbers have become more favorable -- note that the last jobs report showed an unexpected decline in employment. 200