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Bee Boileau

@beeboileau.bsky.social
252 followers 313 following 47 posts

Economist at the IFS

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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Targeting lower-income buyers prevents benefits going to those who might have bought anyway, but increases the risk of the scheme to the govt and the chance that those buying will have difficulty with repayment. Read our comment on the previous scheme: ifs.org.uk/articles/who...
ifs.org.uk
Who benefits from ‘Help to Buy’ schemes? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We examine the effect of the UK’s ‘Help to Buy’ schemes on housing affordability using a new approach to uncover effects for different households.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
There are also risks to the taxpayer – the government may lose their equity stake if a house is repossessed, and will be exposed to any losses in the value of the equity loan in a housing market downturn.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
There are significant risks to this sort of scheme. Buyers with small deposits could fall into negative equity if prices fall, and those on low incomes with limited savings will be more stretched if rising interest rates push up mortgage repayments.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Higher prices could encourage more building. But IFS research finds that housing supply in England responds weakly to higher prices, so the scheme may do more to raise prices than to increase supply. ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
The determinants of local housing supply in England | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We estimate local housing supply elasticities for 325 local authorities and 6,788 census tract areas in England.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
By increasing what eligible buyers can pay, the scheme would be expected to push up new-build prices, especially where building is constrained. That will offset some benefit to those using the scheme, and raise prices for those buyers who can’t use it.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The effect this time will depend on eligibility rules. The government have said they will put income caps in place, which could limit how much support goes to higher earners. There will also be local price caps, reducing the use of the scheme for very expensive properties.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Our research on the 2013 Help to Buy schemes found that the biggest affordability gains went to higher-income people, likely helping them buy a few years sooner rather than making a difference to whether they bought at all. ifs.org.uk/articles/who...
ifs.org.uk
Who benefits from ‘Help to Buy’ schemes? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We examine the effect of the UK’s ‘Help to Buy’ schemes on housing affordability using a new approach to uncover effects for different households.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A buyer using the full equity loan and putting down a 2.5% deposit would need a mortgage covering 77.5% of the price. The lower deposit requirement helps those with limited savings; the equity loan reduces the mortgage needed, helping those whose borrowing is limited by income.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The government’s proposed ‘Your First Home’ scheme would offer eligible first-time buyers in England 20% equity loans on new-builds, with deposits as low as 2.5%. What could it mean for buyers and the housing market? 🧵 below:
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Two key things about yesterday's defence announcement: the scale of the top ups was relatively small, increasing defence spending by about 0.1% of GDP each year; the challenge ahead remains large if defence spending is to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
NB @maxwarner.bsky.social and I crunched the numbers from today's announcement here: ifs.org.uk/articles/ini...
ifs.org.uk
Initial response to the Defence Investment Plan | Institute for Fiscal Studies
The government's Defence Investment Plan adds £3.8 billion a year, but how it will be funded and the path to 3.5% by 2035 remain key challenges.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Just one of the many challenges for the new PM - who will also need to decide how a substantial share of the top ups announced today will actually be funded
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
On the Defence Investment Plan top-ups: the political turmoil surrounding top-ups averaging <£4bn/year feels like a small taste of what's in store over the next decade if we want to hit the 3.5% NATO commitment - which would require (much!) more defence money
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
We wrote much more about defence spending and growth in our Green Budget chapter last year: ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
UK defence spending: composition, commitments and challenges | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We examine the past and future of UK defence spending, considering the fiscal and economic consequences of the government’s commitments.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
As @maxwarner.bsky.social says here, any growth benefits of higher defence spending depend on how it's funded. Rumours this week suggested the govt was considering funding top ups by cutting other investment. This would weaken any case that higher defence spending is an 'engine for growth'
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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:
Chart showing planned increases in defence spending as a share of GDP
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The planned increase would mean spending ~£30-40bn *per year* more than we currently do. This is not a trivial sum: finding it for defence would require real choices elsewhere. The apparent challenges surrounding the DIP seem like just a small taste of what’s to come
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Months-long wrangling about whether a top up might be, say, £15bn or £18bn over the next four years (a difference of less than £1bn a year) risks distracting from the broader point - that the govt has committed to increase defence spending significantly over the next decade
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The constant rumours around marginally different top ups to defence spending alongside the Defence Investment Plan over the last few months have been frustrating. As Max sets out, the DIP is just one part of the govt's overall plan to increase defence spending and capabilities
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
NEW: ‘Help to Buy’ schemes mainly increased affordability for higher earners living in cheap areas, with limited impact on social mobility 🧵 @beeboileau.bsky.social, Lucas Conwell and @peterlevell.bsky.social’s new research examines the impact of Help to Buy on housing affordability: [THREAD]
Chart shows share of local properties affordable before and after Help to Buy by income quintile, 2011–12. Title states: "Higher-income people saw the largest increases in the share of properties affordable to them under Help to Buy schemes."
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
It is a weird situation where the govt accepted recommendations from a defence review asked to operate ‘within the context of a transition to 2.5% of GDP’, then were near-immediately told the transition to 2.5% of GDP was nowhere near enough to fund the recommendations…
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Laurence O'Brien @laurenceobrien.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
From next Monday, the state pension age (SPA) will start gradually going up again from 66 to 67, affecting people born on or after 6 April 1960. What is the rationale for this? What effects might it have on people? And should we expect any further increases? [THREAD]
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
NEW PODCAST: The Spring Forecast explained @helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @beeboileau.bsky.social discuss the Spring Forecast. We cover rising energy prices and what the big forecast uncertainties mean for government spending plans. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spr...
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
This is just one scenario but it shows the importance of the potential pressure from defence. A laundry list of other pressures over the next SR period too, from the risk SEND reform doesn't reduce spending growth by as much as expected, to high public sector pay settlements...
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Spending could be topped up through raising taxes or borrowing (though unlikely to be sustainable to borrow for a long-term increase). If instead higher defence spending were funded within existing totals, in this scenario it would take up all real-terms growth over the SR period
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
One clear pressure on spending is from defence - even before recent events the PM indicated he would like to go faster here. E.g. if the govt chose to raise defence spending to 3.0% of GDP by 2030, this would increase spending by £14bn per year vs. plans to spend 2.6% of GDP.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
(Sidenote: this is an average - worth noting how weird the profile looks. Growth much slower in 2029-30, perhaps coincidentally the year the fiscal rules currently bind, before speeding up again thereafter...)
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.
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Heidi Karjalainen @heidikarj.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
I had a great time chatting about older people with @timharford.ft.com on BBC4 More or Less. The starting question was – are one in four pensioners really millionaires? Quick thread below: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
More or Less - The Stats of the Nation - Older People, Education, Prisons and the Weather - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford explores the stats on pensioners, exams, justice and climate change.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Further to this, in a (plausible) scenario presented by the OBR, official plans imply that "unprotected" departments would face cuts of >3% per year, equivalent to more than £20 billion, between 2029 and 2031. That includes police, courts, job centres, colleges, prisons, HMRC, border force... 🤔
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
The OBR warned about a set of other pressures too - asylum accommodation costs, NHS drug prices and strikes - which risk the deliverability of spending settlements. The 2027 Spending Review looks ever-harder, and spending plans from 2028-29 somewhat less credible...
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
On top of these, departments must now absorb approx £6bn of SEND spending pressure in 28-29 - HMT haven't yet specified how this will be done but will be a very tough job to allocate these pressures. Makes it much more likely totals will be topped up down the line
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We've written an explainer going through some of the options available to the Chancellor on departmental spending at next week's Budget:
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Full report here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
Health, wealth and employment in the run-up to state pension age | Institute for Fiscal Studies
How has health among those in their late 50s and early 60s changed over time, and how are these trends associated with wealth and employment?
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We also see growing disparities in women's physical health by wealth over the last two decades, with the least-wealthy third of women not seeing improvements in mobility. In contrast, there have been improvements in men's physical health across the wealth distribution.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We have a new report out on health & employment in people's late 50s and early 60s. One key finding is these widening gaps in the share of women experiencing depressive symptoms by wealth - likely to be an important headwind for a government looking to boost employment rates.
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world 🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Much more detail on defence in our new report, in which we explore the past and future of defence spending - in the UK and elsewhere - and discuss the links between spending and capabilities, as well as between defence spending and growth: ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
UK defence spending: composition, commitments and challenges | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We examine the past and future of UK defence spending, considering the fiscal and economic consequences of the government’s commitments.
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
NEW: A response to government commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security @beeboileau.bsky.social‬ and @maxwarner.bsky.social‬ set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...
ifs.org.uk
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Wrote pre-SR in the @observeruk.bsky.social about the pressures on defence spending & the risk that existing plans - which were confirmed at the SR - will need to be topped up in future: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
How tough talk on defence will collide with fiscal reality
How far and how fast to increase defence spending is one of the most contentious questions to be resolved ahead of Wednesday’s spending review
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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
The govt's allocation of additional investment over this parliament is a good guide to its overall priorities - we're seeing big increases to defence and net zero, with less for more primarily growth-friendly areas (incl a real-terms cut to transport capital over the parliament)
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PoliticsHome @politicshome.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 How do spending reviews work? 💷 Tory MP John Glen, former minister Brandon Lewis, former special adviser Sonia Khan and economists @tompope.bsky.social‬ & @beeboileau.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to look behind the Treasury's spending plans 🎧 Listen here: pod.fo/e/2e0742
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review @beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
ifs.org.uk
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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
Screenshot of the tool showing identifiable capital investment per person in 2023-24 across the regions of the UK
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
EVENT: A look ahead to the 2025 Spending Review Join us at 11am on Monday 2 June for analysis of the key choices at next month's Spending Review, with speakers @beeboileau.bsky.social and @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social. Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/look-...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Rather than doom-scrolling/trying to desperately learn what a ‘Treasury basis trade’ is, why not play with our new tool instead? Allows you to see, in lots of detail, how much the government spends on different things in each region (£, £ per person, % GDP). I’ll post some nice examples later.
ifs.org.uk
Where and how does the government spend its money? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Explore how and where the government spends money, and how this has changed over time, in all regions and nations of the UK
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