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Joseph Sommer

@bayesandbounds.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1.1K following 75 posts

Postdoc at the Princeton University Center for Human Values. Interested in cogsci broadly; primarily belief, (bounded) rationality, and JDM

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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I'm sorry, did we all know that the bat-and-ball problem entered the psychological literature (at least) as early as 1968? From Luria's The Mind of a Mnemonist
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Omg, this has been driving me crazy for years* - so happy to see it made explicit *I nodded at the idea in a footnote, but didn't chase it down properly
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Tania Lombrozo @tanialombrozo.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
What do rubber ducks have to do with learning and AI? You can find out in my TEDx talk, released today as an Editor’s Pick at the YouTube TED Channel! www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbiy...
youtube.com
How you can learn in a world of information overload | Tania Lombrozo | TEDxNewEngland
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Relatable, but really worth the extra time to organize your papers hierarchically into folders: papers > new papers > new urgent papers > to read immediately > new papers > new to read
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preston lennon @jplennon630.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... glad this is finally out in ajp. with mill and strawson, i argue that our lives would be much worse if only low-level sensory states were conscious. cognitive phenomenology is needed for humor, friendship, aesthetic experiences, existential experiences, and more
tandfonline.com
The Value of Cognitive Experience
Recent debates about consciousness and welfare have focused on whether consciousness is required for welfare subjectivity. There have been fewer attempts to explain the significance that particular...
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Is the distinction between (a) political, religious, and identity-related beliefs, and (b) mundane beliefs a feature of the mind, or of the world? @bayesandbounds.bsky.social offers a sound argument for the latter: buff.ly/7kLe8lH TL;DR:🧵 buff.ly/h607npG
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Igor Grossmann, PhD @igi.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
"If there is anything that still ails psychology... it is the neglect of investigation of environmental or ecological texture." Brunswik, '57 @bayesandbounds.bsky.social takes that seriously in the new Psychological Inquiry 37:1. Check in out! 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.2026.2650209
doi.org
In the Mind or in the World? Types of Beliefs and the Locality of Evidence
People’s beliefs appear to be divisible into two distinct types. Some beliefs refer directly to the observable world, readily guide behavior, and are easily revised when challenged. Others, includi...
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Thrilled this is out! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 🧵 Do we have 2 kinds of beliefs? Some beliefs seem insensitive to evidence and rarely guide behavior, etc. To explain this, several theories divide belief into 2 types. I argue the explanation isn't in the *mind* but in the *world*
tandfonline.com
In the Mind or in the World? Types of Beliefs and the Locality of Evidence
People’s beliefs appear to be divisible into two distinct types. Some beliefs refer directly to the observable world, readily guide behavior, and are easily revised when challenged. Others, includi...
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Neuroskeptic @neuroskeptic.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
This seems like a false dichotomy. Yes, the purpose of the brain surely is allostasis. Like all organs, it exists because it helps us survive & reproduce. The brain justifies its energy paycheck by helping us find food, water, safety etc. But cognition is *how* it does that!
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
"People don't care about truth, they only want to hear what they want to be true." This assumes they're wrong, producing a choice between: false+desirable vs. true+undesirable But they think they're right! From their perspective, the information on offer is *false+undesirable*
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Popper's manifest truth doctrine is still the best on this, imo
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Every time I hear about the illusory truth effect, I feel like I believe it less and less
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
"Baseball fans see (/report seeing) many more baseball plays than non-fans. This shows that perception is motivated by groupish signaling, causing people to have hallucinations which allow fans to better fit in with their in-group" -what signaling theories of belief often sound like to me
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Some irony in dissonance theorists hanging on to dissonance theory - despite failed predictions - by making ad hoc modifications to the theory (To be transparent, I think this is completely reasonable. But if we grant that, "dissonance reduction" seems less irrational elsewhere)
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Does anyone else find it a little convenient that this claim is always made about the crazy other people? I'd be more sympathetic to these views if they said "here are *my* false beliefs that serve me only as identity markers"
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Luke Bretscher @luciusvoltaic.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Putting the "LLM" in "Gell-Mann amnesia"
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Henle is so so good. One favorite from her motivated reasoning work: "There are two curious omissions in this study which purports to show the influence of attitudes on subjects’ reasoning: the authors neglected to determine the attitudes of their subjects and failed to study how they reasoned."
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Rather, it's mostly just the weight of facts and evidence that is having such a strong effect on people. But, importantly, when we say "facts and evidence" we mean "ostensible" facts and evidence. In fact, the LLMs are quite good at convincing people to believe conspiracies as well.
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
😍😍😍 (Hardwig, 1985)
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
This isn't the physics envy I ordered
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
"Beliefs* drive behavior" stocks up big *including ideological, political, identity-central, motivated, etc. beliefs
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Philosophy friends, what's stopping you from achieving this rate of bee-examples-per-argument? (From Paul Helm's Belief Policies)
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
My god, the language available to psychology was impoverished after behaviorism. Here's Heider (1958) - after explaining in detail that physical stimuli alone can't uniquely determine what you perceive/infer - struggling to say: "what you believe depends on your total evidence"
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Well, my New Year's resolution is to read less (seriously). But made it through lots of great books this year, including several from fields I'm less familiar with. Here are 10 books I gave 5 stars to this year along with an excerpt (usually belief-related; I have a type) from each
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Hard to find a bigger chip on a psychologist's shoulder than the Brunswikians'
To the memory of Egon Brunswik
A visionary psychologist who challenged the normal
science of psychology and whose legacy in psychological
history, theory, and method has unequivocally
put the lie to E.G. Boring’s off-hand summation that
“Brunswik was a brilliant man who wasted his life."
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Probably the best discussion of the definition of bachelor problem I've ever seen (from Winograd, 1976)
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
We shouldn’t be too quick to see inconsistent beliefs as evidence of irrationality. Cool research by @bayesandbounds.bsky.social & @tanialombrozo.bsky.social suggests inaccessibility of an apparently conflicting belief can lead to (temporary, quickly resolved) inconsistency: buff.ly/QncPtjq
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Nice story with some evidence against Nisbett & Wilson on people not having access to details of judgment processes (Doherty & Reilly, 2001, p. 322 - their other work further supports this finding, which also seems to be gaining strength today).
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Maybe a good time to share my favorite critique of When Prophecy Fails (from 1965!)
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
If rationality implies that people’s beliefs must be consistent, the fact that we manifestly deviate from this would require explanation. But @bayesandbounds et al argue inconsistency is the default, and it is *consistency* that requires explanation: buff.ly/9WIcGsp
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
"Explaining belief in the wide variety of supernatural entities across cultures by suggesting they are supported by evidence might seem odd. However, evidence is perfectly capable of supporting false beliefs."
tandfonline.com
Engaging, authoritative, but also evidential
Published in Religion, Brain & Behavior (Ahead of Print, 2025)
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
100% agree. IMO, there are 2 mutually reinforcing clusters: 1. Everything is unconscious reinforcement learning; no introspective access; the mind is just (an emergent property of) many conditioned neurons; LLMs (therefore) work like people; behavior/metrics are the only important thing...
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Thom Scott-Phillips @thomscottphillips.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
New Substack post It's very personal: my story of a 20-year academic career, and the many challenges of theoretical and cross-disciplinary work As I put it in the subtitle: There is a lot of success and a lot of pain here, and no happy ending thomscottphillips.substack.com/p/happy-in-t...
thomscottphillips.substack.com
Happy In Theory
This is the short story of my long, 20 year search for a stable academic home. There is a lot of success and a lot of pain here, and no happy ending.
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
"cognitive scientists should *expect* low belief-behavior correlations: after all, beliefs may be maps by which we steer, but steering takes much more than just a map"
tandfonline.com
Maps by Which We May Not Steer: Why Psychologists Should Expect Low Belief-Behavior Correspondence
Published in Psychological Inquiry: An International Journal for the Advancement of Psychological Theory (Vol. 36, No. 1, 2025)
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Igor Grossmann, PhD @igi.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
• Moè: intentions vs. reality • Osman: mis/disinfo impacts @osman • Pierre: consistency puzzles • Sommer & Oktar: expecting low links @keremoktar.bsky.social @bayesandbounds.bsky.social • Westaby et al.: behavioral reasoning
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
The Venn diagram of the target demographic for this beer and me might be a circle
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Well, the bar seems clear
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Ryan Rhodes @langofmind.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Last new year's, I hung out with my friend Joseph @bayesandbounds.bsky.social to talk about the 100 most influential works in cognitive science. All the big names are here: Turing, Fodor, Marr, Miller, (Joseph's favorite) Herb Simon, and of course - Noam Chomsky! youtu.be/Zu6ZoZsRGG0
youtu.be
10 most important books in Cognitive Science
YouTube video by Language of Mind
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Psychoanalysis has concepts of a plan
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Rob MacCoun @robmaccoun.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
I regularly invite my students to ponder the puzzle of how humans often violate Bayes theorem and yet tiny bumblebee brains are capable of optimal Bayesian foraging. This paper might offer the solution: psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-... @bayesandbounds.bsky.social
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
This was a very interesting summary and commentary on a book I haven’t read yet (Religion as Make-Believe). I think the question “what are beliefs even?” may be one of the most consequential in psychology/philosophy of mind. philpapers.org/rec/SOMRAB
philpapers.org
Joseph Sommer, Religion as belief, a realist theory: a commentary on _Religion as Make-Believe, A Theory of Belief, Imagination, and Group Identity_ - PhilPapers
Van Leeuwen’s Religion as Make-Believe, A Theory of Belief, Imagination, and Group Identity argues that religious and political beliefs are fundamentally different from mundane, factual beliefs and re...
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Experimental Philosophy @xphilosopher.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Consider two beliefs: 1. Believing that the bathroom is down the hall 2. Believing that the Democratic Party is a threat to our whole society It seems like there’s some deep difference between these two beliefs. But what is the difference? Our studies explore that question
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Cosign: "Herbert Simon ftw"
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Joseph Sommer @bayesandbounds.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
"An extrapolation of its present rate of growth reveals that in the not too distant future Physical Review will fill bookshelves at a speed exceeding that of light. This is not forbidden by general relativity since no information is being conveyed" (Mermin, 1990)
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Nick Byrd, Ph.D. @byrdnick.com · 25/11/2024
3. @bayesandbounds.bsky.social reported progress on identifying the mechanism(s) of a phenomena reported in [...checks notes...] the 1960s! Further confirmation may involve think-aloud protocols — one of my favorites! 🤓 #Bayes #probability #cogSci #epistemology #xPhi #psychology #logic #history
Cognitive Processes And Judgmental Strategies In Belief Updating

Joseph Sommer & Perille Hemmer
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