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Andy

@awmark.bsky.social
842 followers 496 following 1.5K posts

Trying to find a decent Fiero with a ‘For Sale’ sign 📍ORD

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Reposted by Andy
David Roberts @volts.wtf · 15h
Holy shit.
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Reposted by Andy
Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Rates, boy, I don’t know
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Michigan has run 3 plays in the second half. They have two interceptions.
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Please just duo this Gopher defense to death, how is this so hard?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Russ? Or maybe D-Rose
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Don’t look now but credit is starting to move a bit here…granted it’s off of a very tight starting point
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
When a friend says “nice to see you,” I have to resist the urge to reply “Better to be seen than viewed”
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Tabless dork
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Bloomington, IN an interesting outlier on this list of aggregate home price declines
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Check out the byline on this op-ed in Wapo this morning
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Reposted by Andy
George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
just need to find that Fiero with a ‘For Sale’ sign music.apple.com/us/album/den...
music.apple.com
Dennehy by Serengeti on Apple Music
Song · 2006 · Duration 4:12
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
City of Chicago is in peak form today. Weather is flawless, Bears won, Cubs and Sox in the playoffs today. Autumn closin’ in.
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bloomberg in solidarity with the W-2 wage earner subscribers
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
100%
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
IRS going to destroy AQR’s business
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I think wealthy owners/benefactors spending money on football at all levels is the only reason most of these clubs have existed for 100+ years. Just don’t think sports-washing and state-backed owners have a place in the game and regulation after City’s penalties should target that problem
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Great pod, but imo financial limits are a clumsy proxy for the ultimate question of who should be allowed to own clubs. State-owned (or proxied) clubs are the concern, so vet existing and new owners harder instead of capping the spending that made the league the epicenter of global football
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Reposted by Andy
Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Every French presidential poll LADY HITLER - 35% JEAN D'AUSTÉRITÉ - 18% CHUD COMMUNISTE - 17%
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Rates, boy, I don’t know
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
seems like lots of clubs tried to do the best they could but things are very chaotic, esp in U10 down to U8s. Development cost is probably not enormous but is real
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Niche topic for this platform but imo the birth year change in US youth soccer this fall has been a complete tire fire. My vantage point is 3 kids playing top flights across two different clubs in Upper Midwest. Leagues are hemorrhaging teams, players are mis-placed on some rosters, it’s total mess
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Michigan deserved this so so much. Play stupid game, win stupid prize shit
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Commentators hyping up Diaz and he immediately drops an easy toss, lmao
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Long week on the road so happy Friday, you guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
How’re you gonna omit ‘The Apprentice,’ which is unfortunately the most consequential television program in American history?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
With City going down, maybe now Spurs have a chance to stay up
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
long fn 6.5s was a crowded HF carry trade, pressure spreading out to adjacent coupons from there. Whisper is ~60% of fn 6.5 from hedge funds are closed
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
think that trade is emblematic of the really bad deals that’ve been done in data infra, but also not the kinda thing with which I would paint the market broadly. They thought building a gas pipeline across the state of New Mexico would be straightforward!
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Really putting the ‘L’ in Blue Owl
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
omg
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Dime store Kacey Musgraves, if you ask me
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is why I subscribe to the FT, incredible and valuable work here
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
run like the wind, Bullseye!
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
think they’ve given a lot to the school itself (iirc the business school has Sam’s name on it) but not so much to athletics
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
See my barber every 3-4 weeks, y’all go less frequently than that?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
3 Saudi guys went AWOL to Vegas from my OBC class a week before graduation. They were each terrible
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
One of the most consistent experiences across the joint force officer corps is meeting Saudi nepo babies in training schools
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
L>k all day
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
W-2 earners are all working class regardless of the number in Box 1
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Reposted by Andy
jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 15/09/2026
some chud interviewing for patel’s FBI: “if anything the goat fucked *me*”
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
crazy that this Vegas strip mall spot serves the best food in town
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
it’s all too often one of them cav guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
true story, I was the young 101st captain that Gerhart mouthed off to in the mud qalat when we arrived that early evening. I was surprised when I read it in the story
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
You guys gotta see this
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Classic Ryan Day Game™️
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Every Ohio State loss is just immaculate
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
how dare he impugn we happy few, we Bloomberg Americans
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I was near the end of high school in Illinois on 9/11, and didn’t have any personal connection to what happened. But I eventually spent two years of my life in combat zones which we likely never would have entered had 9/11 not occurred. The reverberation of that day had a huge impact on my life
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